National Council of Applied Economic Research
Opinion: Sonalde Desai & Debasis Barik
The demographic dividend is smaller but will last longer due to regional variation in the onset of fertility decline. As southern states struggle with the growing burden of supporting the elderly northern states will supply the workforce needed for growth.
Success brings its challenges. The first challenge is accepting the win the second is to learn to live with it. Recent results from National Family Health Survey-5 (NFHS-5) suggest that we are entering an era where we will have to tackle these challenges. NFHS-5 places the total fertility rate (TFR) at 2.0. With two parents having two children we have reached a replacement level of fertility. Due to many young people the population will continue to grow but the replacement level fertility is a significant milestone in India’s demographic history.