National Council of Applied Economic Research
Opinion: Souryabrata Mohapatra & Sanjib Pohit
As India stands on the cusp of an unprecedented political milestone with the Prime Minister poised to win a historic third term, the nation’s gaze shifts towards the ambitious vision of ‘Viksit Bharat’ (Developed India) by 2047. The cornerstone of the Viksit Bharat vision is achieving a $30 trillion economy by 2047, which would elevate India’s per capita income to $18,000-$20,000. In order to reach this goal, the nation needs to leverage its demographic dividend, technological advancements, and socioeconomic initiatives. This transformation is anchored on holistic development across various sectors, ensuring prosperity, inclusivity, and sustainability.
Key challenges
India’s journey towards energy independence is pivotal, especially considering its current reliance on imports for 90 per cent of its oil and 80 per cent of its industrial coal. The Viksit Bharat vision aims to achieve energy self-sufficiency by 2047, targeting a CO2 emissions peak in the early 2030s and reducing emissions to around 800 million tonnes per year by 2047. This involves expanding renewable energy capacity to over 500 GW by 2030, with aspirations of an 80 per cent green grid by 2040 and 90 per cent by 2047.
The shift to electric vehicles (EVs), along with the increased use of biofuel in the transportation sector, could drastically reduce crude oil imports by over 90 per cent, saving approximately $240 billion by 2047. Moreover, heavy industrial production is set to depend on green hydrogen and electrification, targeting 90 per cent of iron and steel, 90 per cent of cement, and 100 per cent of fertilizers production through these methods by 2047.
Infrastructure development is crucial for achieving Viksit Bharat. The government has earmarked 3.3 per cent of GDP for infrastructure in 2024, focusing on roads, highways, railways, and urban public transport. The ambitious plan includes constructing a national highway grid spanning 200,000 kilometres and operationalizing 23 waterways by 2030.
The Sagarmala initiative aims to enhance port-led development, reducing turnaround times at Indian ports to 0.9 days and increasing port capacity to over 10,000 MTPA by 2047. Additionally, the Bharatmala Pariyojana targets the development of 34,800 km of national highways, with Phase I expected to be completed by 2027-2028.
Agriculture remains a vital sector, employing nearly 46 per cent of the workforce. The government’s initiatives focus on enhancing farmer incomes, reducing farming costs, and providing modern amenities. Programs like the PM Kisan Samman Nidhi and Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana have already benefited millions of farmers with substantial increases in crop insurance and financial assistance.
India’s food demand is projected to grow at an annual rate of 2.44 per cent from 2019-20 to 2047-48, necessitating sustainable agricultural practices and technological innovations. The report predicts significant growth in the demand for pulses, vegetables, fruits, and milk, with total food grain demand expected to reach 402-437 million tonnes by 2047-48.
Drivers of growth
The service sector is expected to be a major driver of economic growth, supported by advancements in IT and digital services. India’s digital economy grew by 15.6 per cent from 2014 to 2019, outpacing overall economic growth. The expansion of platforms like UPI, which has a 40 per cent market share globally, showcases India’s leadership in digital innovation.
Governance reforms are aimed at improving service delivery, transparency, and efficiency. Initiatives like the Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission and the eShram portal exemplify the government’s commitment to digital transformation and inclusivity.
The 2024-25 budget emphasizes commitments towards energy transition, infrastructure development, and social welfare. Key initiatives include (1) Rooftop Solar Projects: Installing solar panels in one million homes, providing up to 300 units of free electricity monthly; (2) EV Infrastructure: Expanding EV production capacities and developing charging stations; (3) Green Energy Initiatives: Funding for offshore wind energy projects and coal gasification to reduce imports of natural gas, methanol, and ammonia; (4) Promoting environmentally friendly solutions such as biodegradable polymers and bio-agricultural products; (5) Blue Economy 2.0: Enhancing climate resilience and sustainable practices along the coastline.
As India embarks on this transformative journey, the vision of Viksit Bharat by 2047 stands as a beacon of hope and ambition. The strategic initiatives outlined in the report highlight a comprehensive approach to development, encompassing energy independence, infrastructure, agriculture, service sector growth, and governance reforms. With unwavering commitment, innovative thinking, and strategic leadership, India is poised to achieve this historic milestone, reshaping its future for generations to come.
It is expected that in the upcoming budget, more such schemes/policies will be introduced to take the economy towards the path of Viksit Bharat. The only hitch could be whether coalition partners will agree to this vision or expect more schemes catering to their vote-banks.
Souryabrata Mohapatra is Associate Fellow and Sanjib Pohit is Professor at NCAER. Views are personal.