National Council of Applied Economic Research
Opinion: Amit Mitra.
India as a major regional power needs to brace up to the reality of climate refugees.
As temperatures soar and monsoons intensify, South Asia stands at the centre of a brewing climate disaster. Recent floods in West Bengal, where rivers breached embankments and displaced thousands, have submerged vast lands.
In 2023, rainfall surged over 40 per cent above normal across South and North-Eastern India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar, displacing millions. Bangladesh alone saw over seven million people affected, while South-Eastern India was battered by cyclones. Myanmar faced landslides, cutting off entire regions from aid. This relentless destruction is no longer an anomaly — it is the region’s new reality.
Scientists predict that extreme weather events will rise dramatically. Temperatures in the subcontinent are projected to increase by 1°C by 2030, alongside erratic rainfall. Bangladesh’s low-lying coastlines, threatened by rising seas, could lose 17 per cent of its land by 2050 due to climate-induced flooding.
Cities like Chattogram and Kolkata face growing risks of inundation, while fragile ecosystems in Myanmar and North-Eastern India will crumble under recurring floods. The future for this region is increasingly hostile to human habitation.
Livelihood impact
These climate shifts carry severe consequences for livelihoods, particularly in rural areas where agriculture is the economic backbone. Extreme heatwaves are already educing crop yields, with wheat and rice production projected to drop by up to 30 percent by 2050.
In Bangladesh, saltwater intrusion from rising seas is turning once-fertile land barren, while irregular monsoons in India’s eastern regions disrupt planting cycles. As land-based livelihoods collapse, poverty will deepen, accelerating the crisis and creating a growing tide of landless families with nowhere to turn.
This climate crisis sets the stage for one of the largest waves of climate-induced migration in history. Coastal erosion is swallowing villages in Bangladesh, and flood sare devastating Myanmar, making mass migrations inevitable. Projections show that by 2050, over 20 million Bangladeshis could be displaced due to rising sea levels.
Within India, internal migration is already surging, with the World Bank estimating that 216 million people will move within their countries by 2050 due to climate impacts.
In India alone, millions could be displaced if climate targets remain unmet. As coastal populations move inland, cities already straining under overpopulation will face a monumental challenge in resettling climate refugees.
Migration will bring severe socio-political challenges, especially in India’s politically sensitive north-eastern States. The ongoing Assamese protests against illegal immigration highlight the fragility of the region’s social fabric. A mass influx of migrants from Bangladesh and Myanmar will only exacerbate unrest, as local populations struggle to preserve their resources and identities.
Political instability in Myanmar and economic desperation in Bangladesh create a volatile situation. The demographic pressures on India’s north-eastern borders could soon lead to an untenable security crisis.
Security issue
Migration is not just a humanitarian issue — it poses a threat to India’s national security. According to NCRB data, in 2020, 7,686 foreign nationals were found violating Indian laws.
Combined with declining agricultural productivity and worsening food security, socio-economic disparities will fuel internal unrest.
Internationally, India must prepare for a future where climate refugees become a central geopolitical issue. Managing this crisis requires deft diplomacy with Bangladesh and Myanmar while ensuring that migration policies remain humane and secure. Striking the right balance between border control and humanitarian responsibility will be crucial.
Policymakers must act swiftly. Comprehensive disaster preparedness systems are essential for coastal areas prone to cyclones and floods. Strengthening early warning systems and refining evacuation protocols can save lives.
India and Bangladesh should collaborate on cross-border water management, particularly for rivers like the Brahmaputra, to mitigate flooding caused by glacial melts. In agriculture, investing in resilient practices, such as drought-resistant crops and updated irrigation systems, will help buffer against erratic rainfall patterns.
Finally, migration policies need an overhaul. Instead of perceiving migrants as a threat, India could integrate displaced populations by focusing on skill development and offering economic opportunities in underpopulated regions.
India, as the region’s largest power, must lead with foresight and empathy. Failing to act will not only accelerate environmental degradation but may destabilise the entire subcontinent, with consequences going beyond South Asia.
The writer is with NCAER in New Delhi. Views expressed are personal.