NCAER Seminar China's Belt and Road Initiative: What will determine its success?

NCAER invited a talk by Dr Paul Gruenwald on “China’s Belt and Road Initiative: What will determine its success?” Gruenwald is Chief Economist at S&P Global Ratings, Singapore. The seminar was attended by NCAER Research team and invited scholars.

In his presentation. Gruenwald discussed China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which is an ambitious plan aimed at (re-) connecting the Eurasian subcontinent through infrastructure and industry projects by land and by sea “Silk Roads”. S&P Global sees geopolitical realities as well as energy security as the drivers of BRI, and the initiative as one of the largest venture capital projects in the world, funded by the Chinese government.  The success of the project will depend on whether the recipient countries buy into the initiative, and whether the initial seed money eventually creates economic value and attracts private sector financing.

Paul Gruenwald is the Chief Economist at S&P Global Ratings. Based in Singapore, he leads the economic research agenda and serves as the primary spokesperson on macro-economic matters for the company. Before joining S&P Global Ratings, Paul spent almost five years at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) as the Asia-Pacific Chief Economist. Previously, Paul worked at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for nearly 16 years, where he led the team producing the IMF’s Asian regional outlook reports. He was also the IMF Resident Representative to Hong Kong and Korea, the Deputy Chief of the China Division, and the country desk officer for Australia. He has a PhD in Economics from Columbia University and a bachelor’s degree in Economics/Mathematics from the University of Texas.