National Council of Applied Economic Research
A good monsoon in 2016 helped in achieving record Kharif crops output and India is set to replicate the performance in Rabi or winter sown crops too said a study by economic thinktank NCAER.
As per the NCAER’s report on the shortterm agricultural outlook for the 2017 Rabi season Gross Value Added (GVA) in agriculture and allied sector registered a significant 3.3 per cent yearonyear growth in the second quarter of 201617 as compared to 1.8 per cent growth in he previous quarter.
Overall a robust growth of 4.1 per cent is estimated for the agriculture sector in 201617 as against the previous year’s droughtimpacted growth rate of 1.2 per cent.
In comparison the latest official estimates suggest 4.4 per cent growth for 201617 and 0.8 per cent for 201516.
“The agriculture sector is projected to grow by 4.1 per cent in 201617 which is more than double the drought impacted growth rate of 1.2 per cent in 2015-16.
“After a record or nearrecord production of most Kharif crops in 201617 India is heading for a record or nearrecord production of Rab crops” said NCAER’s Senior Research Counsellor Rajesh Chadha.
The findings of the NCAER report are based on a comprehensive assessment of various factors including farm input prices an availability monsoon rainfall national and international market demand conditions and government policies impacting this year’s Rabi and Kharif crop production.
The forecast for wheat production in the Rabi season is 9698.7 million tonnes compared with the government’s estimate of 96.6 million tonnes assuming normal weather conditions through harvest.
The NCAER forecast for Rabi rice production is over 13 million tonnes compared with the government’s estimate of 12.8 million tonnes.
