National Council of Applied Economic Research
Opinion: Anupama Sen and Amit Mitra.
There is a need to reimagine agriculture with the twin crises of food and energy insecurity set to challenge global priorities.
“Addressing food insecurity and energy poverty is central to achieving global stability, but tackling these issues independently is no longer sufficient,” warns the World Bank in its latest report on climate and development. The intertwined crises of food and energy security are defining the trajectory of the 21st century, casting a long shadow over global stability. Both systems are under siege — food production is strained by climate change, population growth, and inequality, while energy systems face geopolitical tensions, outdated infrastructure, and the slow transition from fossil fuels. Yet, their interconnectedness presents an even greater challenge: agriculture, a lifeline for humanity, is both a significant energy consumer and a contributor to climate change. As the world teeters on the edge of multiple tipping points, can we truly address one without confronting the other?
Dependency on carbon-intensive energy
Agriculture consumes nearly 70% of global freshwater resources and is responsible for over 20% of greenhouse gas emissions. Its dependence on fossil fuels — for mechanisation, irrigation, fertilizer production, and transportation — has created a vicious cycle of environmental degradation. This reliance also exposes food systems to energy price shocks, threatening global stability. Rising temperatures and erratic weather patterns further disrupt agricultural output, putting the livelihoods of 2.5 billion people at risk. Between 2020 and 2023, nearly 11.8% of the global population faced severe food insecurity, a figure projected to rise to 956 million by 2028.
Renewable energy investments reached $500 billion in 2022, but fossil fuel consumption remains robust due to short-term economic and geopolitical pressures. Nations such as the United States, Brazil, and Guyana continue to expand oil and gas production, prioritising exports and domestic energy security. This ongoing dependency on carbon-intensive energy exacerbates the vulnerability of global food systems, particularly in regions with limited access to reliable energy. Energy poverty reveals sharp global inequities. Low-income countries account for a small fraction of global energy demand but suffer disproportionately from supply disruptions. Extreme weather events frequently damage energy infrastructure in regions where power grids are already unreliable. In rural areas, energy deficits hinder agricultural productivity, leading to higher food prices and deepening poverty. In sub-Saharan Africa, per-hectare fertilizer usage remains far below the global average, contributing to food insecurity despite $1.9 billion spent on fertilizer imports by the top 10 African importing countries in 2021 — more than double the amount in 2016.
Agriculture’s reliance on fossil fuels further highlights its vulnerability. Natural gas, critical for fertilizer production, is both a feedstock and an energy source, with 80% of it used for ammonia synthesis and 20% powering the process. Volatility in natural gas prices directly impacts fertilizer costs and global food prices. Geopolitical actions, such as China’s 2021 ban on phosphate fertilizer exports, disrupt agricultural supply chains. India, which imports 60% of its diammonium phosphate (DAP) fertilizers, experienced significant delays during critical cropping seasons, exposing its vulnerability to external shocks.
Renewable energy offers a glimmer of hope, but its deployment remains uneven. High-income countries installed 83% of new renewable capacity in 2022, leaving low-income nations reliant on outdated, carbon-intensive systems. While solar-powered irrigation and biomass energy solutions could transform agriculture, high costs and inadequate infrastructure limit their reach. The transition risks bypassing those who need it most.
Demands on agriculture
Meanwhile, agriculture is being increasingly burdened with competing demands. Beyond feeding a growing population, it is expected to support the global energy transition by producing biofuels. This dual role often pits food security against energy needs, as biofuel production requires vast land and water resources. In a world where nearly 12% of the population faces hunger, is prioritising energy over food morally defensible? The financial costs of addressing food and energy insecurity are substantial yet achievable. The World Food Security Outlook estimates that ensuring basic caloric needs for the world’s most vulnerable populations will require $90 billion annually until 2030. Tackling malnutrition among women and children demands an additional $11 billion per year, while transforming global food systems could cost $300 billion–$400 billion annually —just 0.5% of global GDP. However, for low-income nations, these costs are staggering, with food insecurity expenses in some cases surpassing 95% of GDP.
The implications of inaction are dire. Food insecurity is projected to cost the global economy trillions in lost productivity and adverse health outcomes. Climate-induced energy disruptions threaten to destabilise entire regions, driving social unrest and mass migration. For example, Africa’s mineral wealth, essential for renewable technologies, is often extracted without benefiting local economies, perpetuating cycles of poverty and underdevelopment.
Need for inclusivity
Despite record investments in renewables, fossil fuel expansions continue unabated. Every delay compounds the human, environmental, and economic costs, narrowing opportunities for a resilient future. Clean energy solutions must address structural barriers to inclusivity, ensuring that the most vulnerable communities are not left behind.
Ultimately, the twin crises of food and energy insecurity challenge global priorities. The solutions are within reach, but they require a fundamental shift in perspective. Agriculture must be reimagined as both a source of sustenance and a cornerstone of sustainable development. Failure to act will create the risk of pushing millions into hunger and undermining global climate goals. As the clock ticks, the question remains: will the world rise to meet the moment?
Anupama Sen is associated with the UK Trade Policy Observatory (UKTPO), University of Sussex. Amit Mitra is with the National Council of Applied Economic Research, New Delhi. The views expressed are personal.