National Council of Applied Economic Research
This paper assesses the state of Punjab’s economy, reasons for its current situation, prospects for growth, and policies to enable that growth. Punjab’s economy is characterized by slow growth, societal challenges, and environmental degradation. We identify four interrelated issues that act as constraints on the Punjab economy. First, driven largely by dependence on the central... Read More
India accumulated a sizable stock of foreign reserves over the past two decades, in common with many other emerging economies. Its current reserves comfortably surpass conventional thresholds for adequacy used by the International Monetary Fund and others. An assessment of whether the stock of reserves is appropriate should depend on an evaluation of the benefits... Read More
How can India leverage its potential and implement effective strategies to become a developed nation by 2047? In his 2022 Independence Day speech, the Prime Minister (PM) outlined an ambitious vision for transforming the nation into a developed country by 2047—‘Viksit Bharat (VB)’. It aims to reshape India into a technologically advanced, economically strong and... Read More
Background: Fertility histories are subject to measurement errors such as incorrect birth dates, incorrect birth orders, incorrect sex, and omissions. These errors can bias demographic estimates such as fertility rates and child mortality rates. Objective: We focus on births missing in fertility histories. We estimate the prevalence of such omissions and study their associated factors.... Read More
With the advent of digitalisation and expansion of the retail market in recent years, India has experienced a significant shift in its financial landscape, necessitating an increased emphasis on investor education and protection. This paper delves into the intricate relationship between investor education and investor protection, emphasising the pivotal role of the Government, regulators and... Read More
The paper analyses the causal relationship between rural non-farm employment (RNFE) and the wellbeing of the people in India’s North-Eastern Region (NER). When India experienced a decline in poverty, specifically during the post-liberalisation period, the reduction of poverty was lower in NER, with a wide variation at the State level in the region than in... Read More
According to the GDP estimates by economic historian Angus Maddison, 1st century CE onwards India had the largest share of global GDP for 1500 years and shared the top spot with China until 1870. Today, with India becoming the world’s fifth-largest economy, it is no longer unrealistic to pose the question whether China and India can again... Read More
Despite recent expansion in its population covered by public-funded insurance, a large section of India’s population remains at major financial risk from health shocks. This segment of population, sometimes referred to as the “missing middle,” typically consists of population groups that are, or have been, engaged in informal sector work, and are not poor enough... Read More
Globalization is not over, but it is being reconfigured by events. Internationally, there are economic and political tensions between the United States and China. Both countries have responded with import tariffs, export controls, and foreign investment restrictions that have led to a decline in the relative importance of bilateral trade and the collapse of bilateral... Read More
This paper examines whether IMF lending is associated with increases in outflows to offshore financial centers (OFCs), known for bank secrecy and asset protection, relative to other international destinations. Using quarterly data from the BIS on bilateral bank deposits, we are unable to detect any positive and statistically significant effect of IMF loan disbursements on... Read More
