Quarterly Review July 2013

After falling to a decadal low of five per cent GDP growth in 2012–13, the outlook for 2013–14 can at best be described as cautiously hopeful that a slow recovery is in the works. The first quarter has not brought much cheer, other than on the inflation (WPI) front. While the risk in terms of over-shooting of the fiscal deficit has abated, that on the external front remains. The vulnerability of the economy to sudden stop and reversal of capital flows, subdued investment sentiment and tightening supply constraints, particularly in the food and infrastructure sectors, pose serious risks to recovery.