Budget 2026–27 and Coping with the Emerging Economic Challenge

Budget 2026–27 and Coping with the Emerging Economic Challenge

Sudipto Mundle and Ajaya Kumar Sahu
4 April, 2026

Stable fiscal ratios, high growth and low inflation portray India as a haven of stability and calm in a very turbulent world. However, this may well be a calm before the storm. The stable fiscal ratios notwithstanding, fiscal space is shrinking, which handicaps the country in coping with the economic shock, which is expected in the wake of the Iran war and Iran’s chokehold on supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. An expansionary fiscal policy, combined with a tight monetary policy stance, can moderate the impact of the shock, but a period of slower growth and elevated inflation seems unavoidable.

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