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The last date for submission of proposals has lapsed

Background 

The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) is one of India’s oldest and largest independent, non-profit, economic and social research institute. It does grant-funded research, and commissioned studies for governments and industry, and is one of the few think tanks globally that also collect primary data. NCAER with its consortium partners, the University of Maryland and University of Michigan, has set up a new National Data Innovation Centre (NDIC). Initial funding for NDIC is provided by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The main objective of NDIC is to serve as a laboratory for experiments in data collection, interfacing with partners in think tanks, Indian and international universities, and government. NDIC forms an important core of NCAER’s long-standing data collection activities.

Request for Proposal (RFP)

The focus of the current RFP is to seek for proposals on methodologies for data collection and analysis across the following domains: gender equity, health system, health insurance and healthcare expenditure, employment and unemployment, family planning, and financial inclusion.

The proposals should focus on innovative ideas to improve data quality pertaining to the following aspects:

• Fulfilling data needs and bridging gaps: In the context of the above-mentioned domains, this would entail identifying the key sub-domains that have hitherto received little attention, and developing and evaluating scalable data collection modules.
• Mode of data collection: This would involve experimenting with alternative modes of data collection such as telephone interviews, various computer-assisted methods, self-administered mode of data collection for sensitive topics, web-surveys and comparing these with the traditional methods of data collection in India.
• Questionnaire designing: The main question that needs to be addressed during designing of a questionnaire is: What are the elements of a good questionnaire, and how can these be integrated to elicit accurate responses from the target respondents? In this context, the components that require special attention are: framing and wording of the questions, use of open versus closed questions, number of points on rating scales, labelling of the rating scale points, order of response alternatives, use of the ‘don’t know’ response, sequence of the questions, the recall period, and skip patterns, among other things.
• Social desirability bias: Since it has been observed that a significant number of people provide false information to stay within the socially desirable framework than be seen to be part of the socially undesirable one, it is important to identify methods of overcoming this problem in data collection. This phenomenon may also be related to the interviewer characteristics and interviewing techniques, as often people report what they perceive is considered desirable by the interviewer instead of giving an honest response. In this context, the self-administered mode of data collection could be a viable alternative to reduce social desirability bias.
• Interview setting: This implies assessment of the interview setting and how it can play a role in improving reporting by the respondents, particularly in the case of questions pertaining to sensitive behaviour (e.g., semi-private setting versus complete privacy).
• Survey implementation: The method of data collection and survey implementation may also affect the quality of data. This necessitates identification of the key elements of survey implementation for enhancing data quality, such as interviewing techniques, developing a feasible field plan, monitoring and supervision of the fieldwork, and remote monitoring of process data and survey data.

Eligibility 

Students pursuing their PhD degree or equivalent in any Indian academic or research institute are eligible to apply. We seek proposals from student–faculty teams in order to promote innovations, build skills, and foster collaborations between the researchers and senior faculty both during and after the grant implementation phase.

Funding

The Centre will support a budget of up to Rs 6 lakhs for a period of 12 months. The budget should clearly indicate the actual needs and modes of utilisation of the funding for the proposed project. There is provision for five such grants. Only one grant from each applicant will be considered for funding.

Application Procedure 

All applications must be emailed to Arpita Kayal, Programme Manager, NDIC (akayal@ncaer.org), in a single PDF document (with the text in ‘Georgia’ font, point size 12), comprising the following components:

A) The proposal (not longer than four pages of text in single space) on research work falling under the Centre’s focus areas outlined above. The proposal should include the following sections:

1. Project Summary;

2. Specific Aim(s);

3. Research Strategy, which would further specify:

a. Significance

b. Innovation

c. Approach and Implementation Plan, indicating how the proposed questions/innovations will be tested;

4. Expected Outcomes;

5. Potential Challenges and Alternative Strategies;

6. Timeline; and

7. Budget.

(The page limit is inclusive of the first six components delineated above, while additional pages may be used, if needed, for detailing the budget.)

B) Curriculum Vitae of both the applicant and the respective research guide/faculty member.

C) Support letter from the research guide/faculty member.

Selection Criteria

The selection of students will be based on the merit of the proposal and the CV of the applicant. The merit of the proposal will be judged based on the following criteria:

• Alignment of the proposal with the RFP focus areas
• Innovativeness in method
• Rigour and feasibility of approach
• Clarity of thought
• Clarity in writing
• Selection will also be guided by the distribution of proposals across various domains and components that determine data quality.

Other Requirements

The student and faculty should first check the institutional policies of their respective universities/institutes regarding such grants before applying.

It is mandatory that the selected students spend some time at NCAER to make themselves familiar with the activities undertaken by the Centre and also to discuss and present their research findings. Optionally, the selected students may wish to spend the entire project period (one year) at NCAER.

At the end of the grant, selected students will have to submit a research/working paper authored by the student. The research/working paper will be uploaded on NCAER-NDIC website after it has been peer-reviewed. All research outputs are expected to follow the open access policy of the Gates Foundation.

The selected students and their supervisors will also be encouraged to contribute to the NCAER-NDIC blogs based on their experiences of working on the grant.

Key Dates:

Proposal submission due date: 1st August, 2019

Announcement of the successful candidates: 1st September, 2019

Contract signing: 1st October, 2019

Project period: 1st October, 2019 to 30th September, 2020

NCAER presented its Quarterly Review of the Economy, covering the performance of the Indian Economy in the first quarter of 2019-20 and forecast for the year ahead at this seminar held at NCAER. Organized as an integral part of the Quarterly Review, this seminar brought together policymakers, industry leaders and researchers for a discussion.  Bornali Bhandari and Sudipto Mundle, NCAER, presented the analysis and key findings of the report. Devendra Pant from India Ratings and Research and Subhomoy Bhattacharya, Business Standard were invited as discussants. The seminar also hosted a presentation on Fintech: Prospects, Challenges and Opportunities by Mitul Thapliyal, Partner, MicroSave Consulting.

Key Highlights 

NCAER forecasts growth based on both quarterly and annual models.  The forecast as per the Annual Model is that GDP at market prices will grow at 6.2% and Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices at 6.0% for 2019-20 on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis. The forecast as per the Quarterly Model is that GVA will grow at 6.2% on a y-o-y basis.

In 2019–20, the real agriculture GVA is envisaged to grow at zero per cent, real industry GVA at 6.1%, and real services GVA at 6.9%. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation is projected at 2.6%. The growth rates in exports and imports, in dollar terms, are estimated at 4.4% and 3.3%, respectively. The current account balance and central fiscal deficit, as percentages of GDP, are projected at –0.6% and 3.5%, respectively.

Agricultural growth collapsed in the last two quarters of 2018-19.  The prospects for 2019-20 for the agricultural sector, in particular, depend largely on the south-west monsoon. As of 5 August, 2019, out of a total number of 36 agro-meteorological sub-divisions in the country, three had received excess rainfall, 21 had received normal rainfall, while the remaining 12 sub-divisions had received deficient rainfall. And the country as a whole has received 7% below normal rainfall by 5th August 2019. Further, the country has experienced temporal variations in rainfall.  The mixed performance of the agricultural sector has led to a high rate of inflation for food articles, which was observed to be 6.8% during the period April to June 2019-20 as compared to 1.5% during the same period last year.

Industrial growth has been slipping since 2018-19:Q1.  The Index of Industrial Production (IIP), a measure of industrial performance, shows a y-o-y growth of 3.7% during the period April–May 2019–20, versus 4.1% during the corresponding period in 2018–19. The major component of IIP by economic activities, that is, manufacturing, shows a decreasing trend in production. The same is true for mining while the electricity sector shows an improvement. As regards the y-o-y growth of capital goods, after being in depression during 2018-19:Q4, it shows positive, albeit very slow, growth in April and May 2019. This signals that investments continue to be weak. Core IIP showed a y-o-y growth of 3.5% in 2019-20:Q1. However, in June 2019, it slowed down to a y-o-y growth of 0.2%.  The Nikkei PMI Manufacturing came down from 53.8 in 2018-19:Q4 to 52.4 in 2019-20:Q1.

While the annual data for the services sector shows decline since 2015-16, the quarterly data shows mixed patterns.  These mixed patterns of growth continued in 2019-20:Q1. Aggregate deposits and tourist arrivals showed a marginally higher positive growth in April-May 2019-20. In contrast, the goods traffic by Indian Railways, cargo handled at major ports, and cumulative addition in the total telephone and bank credit to the commercial sector showed weaker y-o-y growth in 2019-20:Q1. Production in the commercial vehicle and aviation sectors (including in both the domestic and international segments) showed significantly slower growth in the first two months of the current fiscal.  The Nikkei India PMI services Index fell from 52.6 in 2018-19:Q4 to 51.1 in 2019-20:Q1.

The inflation rate has largely remained benign in the last two years.  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) exhibited an upward trend in 2019-20:Q1, primarily owing to increase in food prices.  Core CPI continued its downward trend. Although overall Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation went downwards, WPI food inflation exhibited an upward trend in the last quarter. Overall inflation remained benign in the first quarter of 2019-20.

In the external sector, exports and imports have also shown a sliding growth pattern. The total Indian exports (merchandise and services) for the first quarter of FY 2019-20 amount to US$ 137.3 billion, attaining a growth of 3.14% on a y-o-y basis. The total Indian imports for the same period are valued at US$ 164.5 billion, exhibiting a growth of 3.6% on a y-o-y basis. Consequently, the overall trade deficit for April–June 2019–20 stood at US$ 27.2 billion.  While the trade deficit as a ratio to GDP has declined, the rupee has shown appreciation.

In the monetary space, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the benchmark policy repo rate to 5.75% in June 2019, its third consecutive cut since February 2019. With inflation well below the mandated target, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) switched to an accommodative policy stance, largely seen as being an indicator that the RBI is keen to support economic growth.  The data shows that despite a reduction in interest rates, there has been a weak transmission to either deposit or lending rates. Non-food credit showed a slower y-o-y growth of 12 per cent in 2019-20:Q1 versus 12 per cent in 2018-19:Q4. However, M3 y-o-y growth has remained virtually stable at 10.1% in 2019-20:Q1 versus 10.2% in 2018-19:Q4.

In the realm of public finances, the Net Tax Revenue rose by 6.1% in 2018-19 versus 12.8% in 2017-18. It is projected to grow by 25.1% in 2019-20. Meanwhile the 2019-20:Q1 shows a y-o-y growth of 5.9%. Both direct and indirect taxes showed slower growth in 2018-19 versus 2017-18, especially in the case of the latter. Direct taxes (income and corporate taxes) grew by 9.7% in 2019-20:Q1 on a y-o-y basis, and indirect taxes (including custom duties, excise taxes, and GST) grew by (-)3.0%. It is clear that there has been strong compression of Government Expenditure in 2018-19. The total Central Expenditure grew by 7.9% and the total Revenue Expenditure by 6.9% in 2018-19. In 2019-20:Q1, both grew by 2% and 6.1%, respectively.

The IMF projections for all major countries/groups show reduced growth in 2019 compared to 2018.  Sliding export growth is likely to persist.  Unrealistic tax revenue and expenditure proposals imply strong expenditure compression in 2018-19 likely to be followed by further expenditure compression in 2019-20.  With all autonomous demand drivers sliding i.e. exports, investment, government expenditure, growth in 2019-20 is likely to slide further.  Shift to expansionary monetary policy and further lowering of Repo rate may not be effective because transmission to interest rates is not working.  This is mainly because interest rates on alternative financial savings instruments like NSS etc. remain high.  Government may reduce NSS etc. interest rates or allow large slippage in fiscal deficit, but both are unlikely.  Therefore, growth may slip further in 2019-20 to 6% (±0.5%).

About the Quarterly Review of the Economy

The Quarterly Review of the Economy has been designed to meet the needs of policymakers, corporates, and others interested in tracking the latest developments in the Indian economy. It provides an analysis of current policies and tracks developments in both the domestic as well as the global economies. The growth forecasts of NCAER are objective and are widely quoted and referred to in both the Indian as well as international media. An integral part of the Quarterly Review are the State of the Economy seminars, organised quarterly at NCAER, which bring together policymakers, industry leaders, and researchers at one forum.

This joint seminar brought together the Executive Directors of five institutions, namely, the Centre for Policy Research (CPR), Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), India Development Foundation (IDF), National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), and National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP) to present their more reflective assessment of the Union Budget 2019-20. NCAER was represented by its Director-General, Dr Shekhar Shah. The discussion and the Q&A with the audience was moderated by Puja Mehra, an Independent Economist.

The Union Budget in India remains the bellwether of where the government is headed with its economic policies. The 2019-20 Union Budget is particularly important since it suggests how the new government is looking at the next five years. But much of the immediate commentary and eager dialogue on TV and the newspapers takes a narrow, short-term view. As a counter, the executive directors of five of India’s leading economic policy research institutes came together in March 2007 for the first time to present their assessment of the longer term reform and development implications of the Budget. This joint seminar runs into its 13th year in 2019. The seminar was attended by a large gathering of researchers, policymakers, academicians, private and public sector experts and media.

As might be expected from a government starting its term and a new Finance Minister, the 2019-20 Budget presented on July 5 has generated much interest.  The slowing of the economy and the need to kick-start the investment cycle sits uneasy with the promise of fiscal consolidation and poor monetary transmission.  Other trade-offs reflected in the Union Budget include domestic compulsions such as ‘Make in India’ versus international engagement, bank recapitalisation vs the need for public investment, structural reforms vs handling short term exigencies and the political imperatives of the three upcoming state elections.  In the budget she has presented, the Finance Minister has tried to balance these and other needs, but her task remains an envious one.  Against this backdrop, the heads of the five institutes shared a thoughtful view of the Union Budget and its longer-term implications for the Indian economy under the leadership of the Modi-led NDA Government, now decisively in its second term.

NCAER hosted a seminar on “Whither US federal climate policy in the age of Trump, Pelosi, and defiant US states?” with Nathaniel Keohane, Environmental Defense Fund. Shreekant Gupta, Professor, Delhi School of Economics, and Coordinating Lead Author, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (5th Assessment report), was the discussant . The seminar was attended by NCAER research team and invited guests from institutions across the city.

The United States is the world’s second-largest greenhouse gas emitter on an annual basis, and remains the largest historical emitter.  The Trump Administration, however, has sought to roll back climate regulations and threatened to pull the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement.  Recently, there has been renewed interest in the U.S. Congress in climate policy, including proposals for an economy-wide carbon tax.  States like California and New York, meanwhile, have responded to the vacuum in Washington by putting in place aggressive climate policies of their own. With a new Democratic majority in the House of Representatives, and a presidential election coming up in 2020, what are the prospects for climate policy in the United States? And how much can be accomplished by states in the absence of federal action?  In his presentation at NCAER, Nathaniel Keohane, head of the Climate Program at the Environmental Defense Fund, deliberated these very pertinent questions at length as he discussed the prospects for U.S. climate policy in the Trump era and under a future administration.

Nathaniel Keohane is an economist, advocate, and expert on climate, environment, and energy issues in the United States and globally.  Keohane is Senior Vice President for Climate at Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), a leading nonprofit advocacy organization based in New York.  In 2011-2012, he served in the Obama Administration as Special Assistant to the President for Energy and Environment in the National Economic Council and Domestic Policy Council, where he helped to develop and coordinate administration policy on a wide range of energy and environmental issues.  Prior to joining the Administration, Keohane was Director of Economic Policy and Analysis and then Chief Economist at EDF, playing a lead role in efforts to enact comprehensive cap-and-trade legislation in Congress.  He is an Adjunct Professor of Law at New York University, and a past Senior Fellow and Lecturer in Global Affairs at Yale University’s Jackson Institute, and was an Associate Professor of Economics at the Yale School of Management.  His research in environmental economics has been published in prominent academic journals, and he is the co-author of Markets and the Environment (2nd ed., Island Press, 2015), and co-editor of Economics of Environmental Law (Edward Elgar, 2009).  Keohane received his Ph.D. from Harvard University, and his B.A. from Yale College.