Archives: Event

Launch of Vijay Joshi’s book, ‘India’s Long Road: The Search for Prosperity’

NCAER in association with Penguin Random House India, hosted Vijay Joshi for the launch of his book, ‘India’s Long Road: the Search for Prosperity’, at India Habitat Center on July 14, 2016 to a packed house.

Vijay Joshi was in conversation with  Bimal Jalan, Former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, and former President and Honorary Fellow at NCAER,  Pratap Bhanu Mehta, President, Center for Policy Research and  T N Ninan, Chairman, Business Standard. The panel was moderated by Shekhar Shah, Director-General of  NCAER.

The Indian economy has been the subject of many assumptions and extravagant predictions. While outlining the shaky foundations of the rapid, sustainable and inclusive economic growth that India is seeking to achieve, Joshi pointed to some roadblocks in economic growth and prosperity in the context of the dynamic political landscape of the country.

Joshi argued for a comprehensive re-alignment of the relations between the state, the market and the private sector to optimize economic progress in India. Despite the call for greater economic liberalization, there is still scope for state level intervention in many key areas of public welfare and private entrepreneurship. Joshi thus laid out an innovative reform model for enhancing basic incomes and alleviating poverty in the country.

During his discussion, Joshi also alluded to three other countries, viz. China, South Korea and Taiwan that have achieved a per capita income of 6 per cent. Comparing India’s growth with these nations, he claimed that the state in India has a greater responsibility to deliver inclusive growth and employment not merely because of its democratic credentials but also to ensure the success of its ambitious workfare programmes at the grassroots level.

Vijay Joshi is Reader Emeritus at Oxford University and Emeritus Fellow of Merton College, Oxford. His areas of interest are macroeconomics, international economics and development economics; he has published widely in these fields in scholarly journals and elsewhere. He has written (jointly with I.M.D. Little) two major books on India, India’s Economic Reforms 1991-2001, (1996); and India–Macroeconomics and Political Economy 1964-1991 (1994).  During his varied career, Joshi has served as Economic Adviser, Ministry of Finance and Special Adviser to the Governor, Reserve Bank of India.

The India Policy Forum 2016

The India Policy Forum, IPF, in its 13th continuous year in 2016, is organized by NCAER in New Delhi in July every year. Its objective is to promote rigorous empirical research on Indian economic policy with commissioned papers, an annual two-day conference leading to a volume, the India Policy Forum Volume published by SAGE, and the annual IPF Lecture. The IPF explores and provides insights on India’s rapidly evolving and often tumultuous economic transition and the underlying policy reforms that are driving it. IPF started in 2004 as a collaborative endeavor between NCAER and the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C. It is now sponsored and organized by NCAER.

The India Policy Forum 2016 featured an exciting mix of paper presentations, a policy roundtable and the IPF Lecture. The conference commenced with keynote remarks by Amitabh Kant, CEO, Niti Aayog. Five high quality research paper presentations followed, inviting comments and views of discussants and the conference participants. The Policy Roundtable on “The Challenge of Skilling India for Global competitive”, moderated by Dr Shekhar Shah, Director-General, NCAER had Jayant Krishna from the National Skill Development Corporation, John Blomquist  from the World Bank, Bornali Bhandari, NCAER and Karthik Muralidharan, University of California as the panellists. Please see the detailed IPF 2016 Program.

The IPF 2016 Lecture was delivered by Arvind Subramanian, Chief Economic Advisor, Government of India, on “India and the Global Economy Post-Brexit”. He also released NCAER’s 2015-16 India Policy Forum Volume on this occasion. Shekhar Shah, Subir Gokarn and Karthik Muralidharan are the editors of this latest IPF Volume.

The topics that IPF papers have dealt with over the years cover a broad sweep of macro, international, and sector challenges that the Indian economy has faced and the many successes and failures of policymaking over the past several decade. IPF research papers are invited on the strength of their policy-relevance and represent some of the best empirical research on India being done globally. Papers appear in the annual IPF Volume after revisions based on IPF discussants’ comments, a usually lively floor discussion, and the guidance provided by the IPF editors.

IPF Advisory Panel: Shankar N. Acharya, Isher J. Ahluwalia, Montek S. Ahluwalia, Pranab Bardhan, Jagdish Bhagwati, Barry Bosworth, Willem H. Buiter, Stanley Fischer, Vijay Kelkar, Mohsin Khan, Anne O. Krueger, Ashok Lahiri, Rakesh Mohan, Arvind Panagariya, Raghuram Rajan, Shekhar Shah, T.N. Srinivasan, Nicholas Stern, and Lawrence H. Summers.

IPF Research Panel: Abhijit Banerjee, Kaushik Basu, Surjit S. Bhalla, Mihir Desai, Shantayanan Devarajan, Esther Duflo, Subir Gokarn, Jeffery S. Hammer, Vijay Joshi, Devesh Kapur, Kenneth M. Kletzer, Robert Z. Lawrence, Rajnish Mehra, Dilip Mookherjee, Karthik Muralidharan, Ila Patnaik, Urjit R. Patel, Indira Rajaraman, M. Govinda Rao, Nirvikar Singh, Rohini Somanathan, Tarun Ramadorai, Ajay Shah and Arvind Virmani.

State of the Economy Seminar May 2016

NCAER’S Quarterly Review of the Economy May 2016

NCAER predicts GDP will grow at 7.7 percent in 2016-17

NCAER Team presented the Quarterly Review of the Economy at a seminar held at its Conference Room. The review covers the performance of the Economy in the 2015-16 and forecast for the year head.

NCAER’s annual model for GDP Market prices at 2011–12 prices estimates GDP growth rate of 7.6% for 2015 – 2016 and forecasts it at 7.7% for 2016–17. Growth in exports and imports, year-on-year, is projected at (-) 1.6% and (-) 0.6% respectively for 2016-17.  Inflation (WPI) is projected at 0.9% for 2016-17. Current Account Balance as a percentage of GDP is projected at (-) 1.0% and Fiscal Deficit (centre) as a percentage of GDP at 3.5% for 2016-17.  

The agriculture sector has witnessed feeble growth on account of drought for two successive years. The average rate of growth in the agricultural and allied sectors’ GDP for 2014-15 and 2015-16 has been a low 0.5%. Two consecutive years of sub-par monsoon have had a significant impact on the output of both food as well as non-food crops.  IMD has predicted monsoon for 2016-17 at 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%, which may have a positive impact on agriculture and thereby the economy.

In the industrial sector, the manufacturing sector after showing robust growth in the second quarter, has slowed down consistently in the third and fourth quarter. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) recorded a 2.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in the period in 2015-16 versus 2.8% in 2014-15. In the fourth quarter IIP Manufacturing was in recession (-1.1%) and the overall IIP barely grew by 0.2% on a y-o-y basis.  In the fourth quarter, Capital goods grew by -15.4% and consumer non-durables by -3.9% on a y-o-y basis. The IIP Electricity sector continues to show buoyant growth since December 2015 and in March 2016, grew by 11.3% on a y-o-y basis. The IIP Mining also slowed down in March but for the overall year, it showed higher growth of 2.2% in 2015-16 versus 1.4%in 2014-15.

Leading indicators from the services sector in 2015-16:Q4 give mixed signals. Tourist arrivals grew at 10% on a y-o-y basis. Cargo traffic at major ports grew at 7.6% on a y-o-y basis in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal. Revenue earning goods traffic by railways contracted in the fourth quarter as well. Bank credit to the commercial sector showed a continuous increase in y-o-y growth rates from 8.8% 2015-16:Q1 to 11.2% in the fourth quarter. Domestic passenger air traffic shows robust growth in 2015-16(21.2%) versus 2014-15(13.8%).  Both services receipts (-12.6%) and payments (-9.9%), published by the RBI, showed a continuous decline for the fourth consecutive month in February 2016.

In the external sector, merchandise imports declined by 15.3 per cent to US$ 379.6 billion on account of a 40.2% fall in the value of oil imports. Non-oil imports too fell by 4.1%, as a result of which the thereby trade deficit narrowed down to US$ 118.5 billion, a decrease of 14% over the previous year, of 2014-15. Growth in exports has been consistently negative ever since December 2014.

The BSE Sensex fell by 2% in 2015-16 over 2014-15 and rupee-dollar exchange rate depreciated by 7% in 2015-16.  The Reserve Bank of India launched a plethora of measures to boost liquidity, in addition to cutting the policy rate by 25 basis points, to a five year low of 6.5 per cent. The liquidity measures are aimed at inducing more effective monetary policy transmission and further reduction of bank lending rates.

Retail inflation, measured by the consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to a six month low of 4.83% in March, 2016. Retail food inflation fell from 5.30% to 5.21%.The combination of lower oil prices and a good monsoon is expected to rein in inflation.

On the fiscal front, the Budget of 2016–17 aims to achieve the deficit target of 3.5 per cent of GDP, in line with the predictions of the NCAER model.

About the Quarterly Review of the Economy

The Quarterly Review has been designed to meet the needs of policy makers, corporates and others interested in tracking the latest developments in the Indian economy. It provides an analysis of current policies and tracks developments in both the domestic as well as the global economies. The growth forecasts of NCAER are objective and are widely quoted and referred to in both the Indian as well as the international media. An integral part of the Quarterly Review is the State of Economy Seminars, organised quarterly at NCAER, which bring together policy makers, industry leaders and researchers at one forum.

India launch of the World Development Report 2016 on Digital Dividends

NCAER and The World Bank co-hosted the India launch of the World Development Report 2016 on Digital Dividends, followed by a roundtable discussion on how to best speed up India’s digital transformation and reap the digital dividends of faster growth, greater opportunity and jobs, and better service delivery for India.

Dr Shekhar Shah, Director-General, NCAER & Mr Onno Ruhl, India Country Director, The World Bank delivered the welcome address. This was followed by a presentation by Dr Deepak Mishra & Dr Uwe Deichmann, Co-directors, WDR 2016, which provided an overview of the Report’s main findings and and how they might apply to India.  Mr R Chandrashekhar, President, NASSCOM also shared his thoughts on the  findings of the report.

Another highlight of the launch event was a presentation on the Krishna district in Andhra Pradesh that has been implementing digital technologies, including Aadhaar, for improving service delivery. Speaking on the occasion, Mr Ahmed Babu, Collector & District Magistrate, Krishna District &  Mr Ragavan Venkatesan, Business Head, IDFC explained how through an electronic point of sale or e-POS model, Andhra Pradesh has imparted a great amount of incremental efficiency to the district’s public distribution system (PDS).

World Development Report 2016

The World Development Report (WDR) is the World Bank’s flagship publication, published annually since 1979. It focuses each year on a contemporary topic of policy interest to the international development community.  The WDR 2016 expands our understanding of the impact of digital technologies on the lives of poor people in developing countries.

The WDR 2016 documents many profound and transformational effects of digital technologies that are boosting growth, expanding opportunities, and improving services. It also finds that the broader benefits have fallen short and are unevenly distributed. For digital technologies to benefit everyone, everywhere requires closing the remaining digital divide. But greater digital adoption will not be enough. The WDR 2016 argues that to get the most out of the digital revolution, countries also need to work on “analog complements”— strengthening regulations that enable firms to connect and compete, adapting workers’ skills to the demands of the new digital economy, and ensuring that institutions are more accountable.

Roundtable on “How can India best reap its digital dividends?”

India wrote one of the early success stories of the digital revolution when it became a global powerhouse for software development and information services. Its Aadhaar biometric digital ID system has become a model for many countries, helping governments to become more efficient and more inclusive in expanding services to those who have been left behind. But at the same time, India has the largest number of people unconnected to the Internet.  And it has fallen behind other emerging market economies in producing internationally competitive ICT goods and global-scale internet companies.

To accelerate India’s digital transformation, the government has announced a range of new initiatives: Digital India; Make in India; Start-up India; and innovative applications of Aadhaar, such as the Jan Dhan-Aadhar-Mobile trinity and Digital Lockers. Indian industry has responded enthusiastically to these initiatives.  How best can these and other initiatives make up for lost time and how can they best generate greater and more widely shared digital dividends—faster growth, more jobs, and better service delivery?  Beyond catching up, how can these digital dividends allow India to leap frog in a variety of ways to deliver on the promise of opportunity and prosperity for all its citizens, particularly those who still remain poor in its urban and rural areas.

The Roundtable featured some of the country’s most influential thinkers on India’s digital future along with members of the WDR Team. The event was Web Streamed Live.

Looking East: India and the East Asian Policy Experience

Building on Asia’s Strengths during Turbulent Times

A discussion around the IMF’s Spring 2016 Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook

A conversation around the IMF’s Spring 2016 Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook (REO), Building on Asia’s Strengths during Turbulent Times, led by Dr Thomas Richardson, Senior IMF Resident Representative in India, Nepal, and Bhutan was held at NCAER, following the official release of the report today.

Asia continues to be the most dynamic part of the global economy. But it also continues to face severe challenges of a still weak global recovery, slowing world trade, and the impact of China’s growth transition. Growth in the Asia–Pacific economies is expected to decelerate slightly to about 5 percent during 2016–17.  The region’s countries need structural reforms to rebalance demand and supply, reduce vulnerabilities, and augment economic efficiency to raise productivity and maintain their leadership position. Further, the pace of economic expansion must be protected from real and financial volatilities.

In his presentation, Dr Richardson discussed that a new wave of potentially high-impact reforms would help, ranging from the reform of State-owned enterprises in China, to labour and product market reforms in Japan, to infrastructure reforms in India.

Following Dr Richardson’s presentation, Dr Kanhaiya Singh, Senior Fellow, NCAER put forward his thoughts on the report from India’s perspective. The Q & A that followed the presentations led the discussions to a lot many questions pertaining to the growth of Indian economy.

The Spring 2016 Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook discusses the downside risks that could potentially dim Asia’s growth prospects, and high leverage that could further exacerbate shocks, particularly in the event of an interest rate spike. While the region is better positioned to meet the challenges ahead, there is pressing need to strengthen Asia’s resilience to global risks and enhance productive capacity. The REO Update also supports accommodative monetary policy, especially where fiscal space is limited. Looking ahead, growth prospects amongst the largest Asian countries are likely to diverge, owing to a variety of factors ranging from lower commodity prices in Indonesia and Malaysia, political uncertainty also in Malaysia, weaker growth in China, a demand-driven recovery in India and a wage-driven recovery in consumption in Japan.

Thomas Richardson is the IMF’s Senior Resident Representative in India, Nepal and Bhutan. He was earlier the Senior Resident Representative and IMF mission chief in Uganda. During the course of more than 20 years at the Fund, he has served as the IMF mission chief for countries including Cyprus, Belarus and Moldova, and has worked extensively on China and Russia, including as the IMF Resident Representative in Moscow from 1995 to 1998.

Kanhaiya Singh is Senior Fellow at NCAER. His work covers a range of areas in applied economics, including macro and monetary economics, input-output analysis, CGE models, international economics, sector studies, the environment, agriculture trade, and food security.  Prior to joining NCAER in 2004, he was a Deputy Director at the Tariff Commission of India in the Ministry of Industry and Commerce and worked earlier in the private sector as a mechanical and operations engineer. Singh was trained as an engineer with a BTech in mining machinery from the Indian School of Mines Dhanbad, followed by an MBA from the Poddar Institute of Management, and a PhD in economics from the Australian National University in Canberra. He is currently working on measuring the economy wide impacts of large infrastructure such as airports.

NCAER’s Looking East Dialogues are policy conversations designed to provide an opportunity for live, focussed dialogue among public policy practitioners and analysts in India and East Asia. These tightly organized video conversations at NCAER are driven by mutual interest and intellectual curiosity, with policymakers and analysts selected for their intimate knowledge and involvement in their country’s public policy experience and their own interest in learning about how Indian and East Asian policymakers are meeting similar challenges.

The complete report is available at the IMF website

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