At this Seminar on ‘State of the Economy’ and forecast for 2013-14, the NCAER QRE team presented its quarterly forecast of the major macroeconomic variables based on NCAER’s modelling work. It included NCAER’s observations, reviews and projections for 2013-14 covering various sectors including agriculture; industry and services; public finance, money; credit and finance; external sector as well as the GDP forecasts. On this occasion NCAER released its widely-reported Quarterly Review of the Economy or QRE as it is poularly known.
This seminar hosted a special presentation by Kaushik Brahma, Tata Steel and invited discussions by Dr Basanta Pradhan, IEG and Dr Abhijit Sengupta, ADB.
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This seminar, organized by the NCAER brought together researchers from various institutions across Delhi. The presentation by Jeffrey Hammer, Princeton University and NCAER dwelled on three studies on sanitation and their comparisons with primary health care.
These three studies were:
• Cross state illustration of the damage done by poor sanitation
• A randomised control trail of the Maharashtra Total Sanitation Campaign
• Some preliminary results on drainage and health in Delhi slums
The presentation by Jeffery highlighted the kind of policy-related factors that contribute to good health. The seminar invited in comments and active participation from discussants including Dr Surjit Bhalla, O[x]us Investment Ltd; the NCAER research community as well as other participants. Professor Jeffery concluded his session with some policy recommendations on primary health care and sanitation in India.
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This one day workshop brought together a number of practicing urban planners and economists, policy analysts and researchers from both the government and academic institutions to explore and identify possible areas of priority research in land economics and urbanisation in India, including land supply, demand, land valuation and pricing, regulation, and the role of the private sector. The workshop began with inaugural remarks by Shri Kamal Nath, Minister for Urban Development and Parliamentary Affairs in conversation with Dr Shekhar Shah, Director General, NCAER. Reflecting on challenges faced in urban development, he emphasised the need for research, particularly on economic perspectives, on land-, which is a scarce resource. This was followed by brief remarks by Professor Jeffrey S. Hammer, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University and Non-resident Fellow at NCAER. Prof. Hammer provided perspectives on public health issues relating to urban India. Dr. Shashanka Bhide then provided a detailed background to the workshop, highlighting the need for analytical research in the area of land economics in India where urbanisation is taking place at a fairly rapid rate and land prices are soaring, making affordable housing beyond the reach of many.
The workshop included two technical sessions and a round table on research on land economics. The first technical session, chaired by Prof. Edgar Ribeiro, was devoted to issues and challenges for land supply for urban development where two commissioned papers were presented. The first paper was by Mr. Vidyadhar Phatak an eminent urban planner and former Chief Town Planner of Mumbai Municipal Corporation. He focused on issues of land supply. The second paper was by Dr. Kala Sridhar who provided insights into the impact of land-use regulations on land supply. The second technical session, chaired by Prof. Partha Mukhopadhyay, focused on issues relating to demand for urban space. The first paper by Prof. Chetan Vaidya, Director, School of Planning and Architecture, Delhi was devoted to issues relating to demand for living space as well as for other uses. This was followed by a detailed presentation on trends and patterns of land prices by Ms. Jayashree Kurup, Magicbricks.
The concluding session was a roundtable chaired by Mrs. N. Jayaseelan, Member Secretary, NCR Planning Board. To begin with, Mr. K. C. Sivaramakrishnan, Centre for Policy Research in his address underlined the need to explore and identify the key issues for further research on issues of land management and governance. This was followed by brief presentations by a panel comprising of Prof. D B Gupta, Prof. Edgar Ribeiro and Ms. Ritu Anand.. There was a general consensus on the priority areas for work. These broadly related to study of land prices, a relook at the land use regulations as well as regulations relating to transactions in land for urban use, and an analysis of inclusive nature of urban housing development. A need was also expressed for some work on governance and land management and also on urban infrastructure especially studies relating to transport infrastructure as part of urban development.
The Workshop concluded with a vote of thanks by Dr Shashanka Bhide.
Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh unveiled the foundation stone for the new NCAER Centre at the National Council of Applied Economic Research in New Delhi on Saturday morning, accompanied by NCAER’s Director General Dr. Shekhar Shah and many other dignitaries and noted economists, including members of NCAER’s Governing Body led by its President, Shri Nandan Nilekani.
Urging NCAER to maintain its high standards of applied economic research, the Prime Minister Singh said, “The best is yet to come.” Dr Singh stood on the very ground where some 54 years ago Prime Minister Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru had stood to lay the foundation stone for NCAER’s current building in 1959, and where President Rajendra Prasad had stood to inaugurate the building in 1961. In his opening remarks, Prime Minister Singh said, NCAER “is a great asset to us, and it is obligatory on all those who work, or are associated with this magnificent institute, to never lose sight of the vision of the founding fathers of NCAER.”
NCAER is the country’s largest and oldest independent, economic policy think-tank. Singh was a member of NCAER’s Governing Body during 1976-1982, and a frequent visitor to NCAER during his earlier teaching and economic research days. Said NCAER’s Director General Dr. Shekhar Shah, “Not only has the PM laid the foundation stone for the new NCAER Centre, but with his words today he has also laid a strong foundation for the future of NCAER.”
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This one-day research workshop brought together researchers and policy analysts to explore specific aspects of macro modelling such as real output growth, inflation and the sector distribution of output; data limitations on improving model specification; and understanding the policy needs of model-based analysis for forecasting, scenario analysis, and empirical cause and effect analysis of significant economic outcomes.
The distinguished speakers at the workshop included Mr Montek Ahluwalia and Mr Arun Maira, Planning Commission; NCAER faculty; and invited paper authors and discussants.
- The workshop deliberated on the following research themes in the context of macroeconomic models:
- Fiscal deficits and Government debt: implications to growth and macroeconomic stability
- Modelling of monetary policy transmission and macroeconomic management
- Modelling savings, investment and economic growth
- Modelling the impact of productivity, efficiency and institutions on economic growth
- External balances and implications to domestic growth and prices
The workshop also included a session on the findings of a study undertaken by NCAER for the Planning Commission.
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