Agricultural Outlook and Situation Analysis for Food Security

The study focuses on integrating information relating to inputs, outputs, and markets for the major agricultural products to provide an assessment of the emerging agricultural outlook in the economy. The study will consider developments in the domestic economy and also global markets with implications for Indian agriculture and focus on food crops, given the significance of achieving food security for India’s population. The study will also provide 2–3 analytical papers on issues relating to the development of the food sector in the country.

India’s Cotton Revolution: Outcomes and Insights

India’s cotton economy has witnessed significant changes after the introduction of Bt technology in 2002. In a relatively short span of 10 years, the country has become the second largest producer of cotton in the world. The rapid growth in India’s cotton production has attracted a lot of attention within as well as outside the country due to a highly contentious debate that took place before and immediately after the introduction of this technology. The purpose of this study is to undertake a fresh and comprehensive assessment of how the introduction of Bt technology transformed the socioeconomic status of cotton growers and benefited industries associated with cotton.

National Survey of Household Income and Expenditure (NSHIE)/Market Information Survey of Households (MISH)

The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) initiated the Market Information Survey of Households (MISH) in 1985-86 to estimate market size, penetration of a variety of consumer goods and most importantly, provide a profile of consumer households in terms of income, occupation and location. These surveys are one of the few consistent sources providing comparable household income data on a regular basis. The MISH surveys have also generated valuable demographic data on income. It has been suggested that these databases could throw light on broader social trends in the economy.

In light of the above, NCAER re-structured the methodology and data collection instruments and undertook the first “National Survey of Household Income and Expenditure –NSHIE” in 2004-05 to generate a more robust and reliable estimate of household income by following international practices.

The main objective of the NSHIE was to generate reliable estimates on household well-being (such as income, expenditure, savings and related indicators) for all major states and for major town categories.

The second round of NSHIE (2011) was conducted after a gap of six years with significant value addition in terms of scope and coverage. It provides both panel data (to study changes), and cross-sectional data (to measure welfare indicators for the current round). Secondly, it aims to double the sample to meet the panel data requirement as well as be able to generate a more reliable results at a disaggregated level. Thirdly, addition of several relevant verticals will add further value to the current rounds. Finally, the listing exercise generates the baseline data for about 500,000 households randomly selected, covering the entire country.

Coverage: The household is the target unit of the study. For this, the listing exercise was carried out in 32 states and union territories of the country. Within each state, an NSS Region (which is a group of districts within a state similar to each other in respect of agro climatic features) formed the strata for both the urban and rural samples. All 32 states are divided into 75 NSS Regions which form the strata or domain of study below the state/UT level. Each NSS Region is assigned a three digit code where the first two digits indicate state/UT and third indicate region number within a state/UT. The rural and urban areas are taken as defined in the census.

Sample size: A total sample of 97,755 households was covered in this study. Of this, 44,474 households spread over 2,508 villages in 292 districts were rural and 53,281 households spread over 2,712 urban wards in 363 towns were urban.

The founders of NCAER-CMCR have envisioned a growth plan based on providing multi-dimensional information which would rapidly establish its credibility. A manifestation of the dynamism inherent in the data available in its primary research is in the nature of NCAER’s publications such as “How India Earns, Spends and Saves” based on the results of the NSHIE 2004-05.

For further information on the NSHIE 2011, please contact Dr Anil Sharma.

Acquisition of Technological Capabilities through the Clean Development Mechanism: Some Quantitative Explorations

This paper investigates the impact of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) on technological capabilities of implementing firms in India using longitudinal data of 500 CDM and non CDM firms for the period 2001–2012. Technological capacity is a multi-dimensional concept. The present study measures it by three indicators, namely, R&D intensity, profitability, and total factor productivity. The analysis uses difference-in-difference techniques based on longitudinal data. The existing literature on CDM has a limited number of empirical studies that address technological capability building issues deeply. This study is the first of its kind that has mapped the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) data on CDM with the PROWESS database on Indian companies and applied quasi experimental techniques to analyse the impact of CDM on building technological capabilities of the hosting firms. The first draft of the report was presented at the SANDEE research workshop held in Kathmandu in December 2012.

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