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Competing newspaper op-eds by PM’s Economic Advisory Council and two former chief statisticians have led to back and forth about the weakness of our statistical systems and political motivations behind impugning statistics. However, they offer a silver lining by highlighting the importance of statistics for evidence-informed policymaking. Several observations are noteworthy:

Indian national statistical systems are in crisis. Either data needed for policymaking is not available or not deemed reliable. Examples of this crisis abound. The sitting chief statistician of India argued that data from the flagship consumption expenditure survey of the National Sample Survey from 2017-18 was unreliable and suppressed the results. This left us floundering without official data on poverty. India’s unbroken record of conducting a decennial census since 1861 was broken during the pandemic. While this delay was understandable at the height of the pandemic, a continued delay is inexplicable.

Indian statistical infrastructure has not kept pace with global advances. Past decades have seen tremendous advances in methods for data collection and collation. Computerised surveys, including in-person, telephone, web, and text-based interviews, require a different way of thinking in questionnaire design. They also allow better quality monitoring using audio recording, interviewer prompts, and keystroke analysis. Advances in sampling methodologies include responsive survey design, where the interviewers are asked to make a greater effort in interviewing individuals with rare characteristics (eg, college graduate tribal women) than those with more common attributes. We have not developed institutional mechanisms for keeping up with global advances or ensuring that unique Indian conditions (eg, linguistic diversity) are incorporated into these advances.

We tend to react to global discourse rather than lead it. Global index construction has become a minor industry, with international “experts” often unable to incorporate regionally specific conditions. This can both inflate and deflate India’s position in the world with little relevance for ground realities. The now discredited Ease of Doing Business index of the World Bank showed significant improvement for India because it used electricity connections as an indicator, not the reliability of electric supply. In contrast, India performed poorly on the World Economic

Forum Gender Gap Index. It includes the gender gap in wealth but does not include the gender gap in poverty. India would fare better on gender gap in poverty than the US because while the overall standard of living is higher in the US, American women suffer from greater poverty than men due to high rates of divorce and single parenting, which is not a factor for India. Advocacy for adding contextual reflections to the applicability of global standards is not always politically motivated, although in some cases, it can be.

While acknowledging these mounting challenges, how can we rebuild India’s once-vaunted Mahalanobis-designed statistical system? This cannot be done without a thoughtful redesign of our statistical infrastructure with a substantial government commitment.

The first principle of a new system should be that statistics are too important to be left to statisticians. In a modern world, we need an interdisciplinary approach that brings together diverse social science and public health domain experts, research methodologists, statisticians, data scientists, and computer scientists. Our investments in research methodology stopped when the research unit for National Sample Survey housed in Indian Statistical Institute was disbanded. We need a new interdisciplinary institute, possibly under the aegis of the NITI Aayog, where innovations in research methodology can be explored, allowing us to keep up with global advances while responding to uniquely Indian conditions. Holistic training programs in research methodologies should be developed in diverse universities.

Second, as Pramit Bhattacharya notes in a paper, the ministry of statistics and programme implementation barely receives 0.2% of central government expenditure, and 3/4 of that is for the MPLAD scheme, unrelated to statistics. We need greater monetary investment in the data collection systems combined with greater demands for data quality and oversight. The dissolution of the NSS governing council has left a hole that must be plugged. The National Statistical Commission should be fully staffed and empowered.

Third, we must be realistic about what we expect from statistical systems. The demand that the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) provide district-level estimates of health indicators led to a seven-fold increase in sample size between NFHS-3 and NFHS-4, which has affected its data quality, as recorded by several academic articles. Moreover, even with this explosion, sample sizes are insufficient to provide district-level estimates of indicators such as infant mortality.

Trust in statistical systems is much easier to lose than to gain. Without a consistent commitment to systemic reforms, this war of words will diminish our confidence in statistics and not help in policymaking that relies on evidence rather than ideology.

India was an outlier on fiscal outcomes pre-pandemic, and it drifted further in the high-debt direction during COVID. At their peak in 2020-21, the public debt and fiscal deficit of the General Government (the Centre and the States together) stood at 89 per cent and 13 per cent of GDP, respectively. With the recovery of nominal GDP, these ratios have fallen. But at 84 per cent and 9 per cent, they are still high relative to other emerging market and middle-income countries, where they average 60 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively.

Even if high, India’s public debt is not unsustainable as per the standard metrics.

A first criterion for sustainability is whether there is a significant rollover risk, where government suddenly finds it impossible to replace maturing debt at any price. A captive market for public debt among banks, insurance companies and provident funds, together with high household savings, have enabled the government to fund its deficits without undue pressure on borrowing costs. The currency composition and maturity of the debt further limits rollover risk. Nearly 90 per cent of the General Government debt is long-term. The average maturity periods for both Central and State government loans have been increasing, contributing to its stability.

In 2000-01, about 13.5 per cent of the Central Government debt was issued externally. Since then, there has been a steady decline in the share of external debt, which stood at just 3.7 per cent in 2021-22. Most external debt is concessional and owed to multilateral and bilateral lenders. Holdings of foreign institutional investors are just 1 per cent of the total debt, and foreign banks hold negligible quantities of Indian government debt. Debt denominated in foreign currency is just 4 per cent of the total. State Governments do not issue external debt. Consequently, the overall debt portfolio is largely insulated from currency risk.

A second criterion for sustainability is whether the debt ratio will remain stable. This will be the case, assuming that the primary budget deficit, GDP growth rate, and real interest rate will remain at the same level in the coming years as their respective averages over the last decade.

But whereas the debt ratio of the Central Government remains stable in our baseline scenario, that of the States shows a tendency to rise. There is considerable heterogeneity in the fiscal position of different States, with certain problem cases contributing disproportionately to the level and rise in the aggregate State debt-to-GDP ratio. Such States incur higher primary deficit and higher contingent liabilities.

Despite our assessment of sustainability, there are nonetheless significant costs and risks associated with India’s high debt and deficits.

First, interest payments absorb resources, limiting their availability for other economic and social purposes. Interest payments already exceed 25 per cent of general government revenues, which is twice the emerging market and developing-country average.

Second, absorbing fiscal resources in this way leaves no room for meeting emerging priorities, notably climate change abatement and adaptation, and the green transition.
Third, debt dynamics leave little room for responding to shocks, such as declining rates of domestic and global growth.

Fourth, high government debt creates the potential for financial stability risks. Banks are required to hold government securities in order to satisfy their Statutory Liquidity Ratios. Risks to their balance sheets can develop with the re-pricing of these assets when interest rates rise. For the moment, India is able to place most of its debt with “patient” domestic investors. But if this changes, going forward, risks will increase.

While India’s general-government-debt-to-GDP ratio may not increase further, it is unlikely to decline rapidly either. In our best-case scenario, assuming an acceleration of real GDP growth to about 8 per cent and a lower primary deficit of 2 per cent of GDP, the ratio will fall from its current level of some 90 per cent of GDP to only some 80 per cent of GDP.

This best case scenario is unlikely to materialize. Smaller primary budget deficits will be difficult to achieve, given the pressure for social and infrastructure spending and the difficulty of boosting tax revenues. Accelerating growth will be challenging, especially in the current global environment.

Progress is needed on a combination of fronts.

First, India’s deficit is more a problem of low revenue than high expenditure. The revenue-to-GDP ratio is below that of most other emerging markets and has seen the slowest rates of increase over the last 20 years. The public-expenditure-to-GDP ratio, in contrast, is not atypical. This gap has resulted in a perennially large budget deficit as compared to other emerging markets. Raising additional revenue through higher tax, non-tax, and privatization receipts is, therefore, of utmost importance.

Along with better tax administration and digitalization, recent tax reforms have succeeded in modestly boosting revenue growth. More could be done both through additional digitization and administrative streamlining, and through the adoption and better administration of taxes at the State or local level, such as the property tax.

Second, continuing to re-orient spending toward capacity- and infrastructure-enhancing investment has the potential to boost GDP and revenues.

Finally, limiting contingent liabilities, which have posed a chronic problem at the State level, would help anchor the debt of the States.

In sum, India’s high public debt leaves no room for mis-steps.

The Government of India has initiated various national highway projects of significant investment in the Northeast. The highway projects are expected to enhance internal connectivity as well as growth of the States’ economy and create new opportunities for people. The Government’s effort to enhance connectivity in the North-east is visible in many major national highway development projects.

As the world is fast changing with the idea of creating logistical space, enhancing connectivity at all levels and creating more logistical channels for increasing economic interaction across the boundaries is also taking new shape. The new road projects along with other modes of transportation in the Northeast are fast changing the landscape of this region.

This is not only creating a new territorial boundary, but is also relocating the spatial economies to- wards a larger structural shift for an integrated regional space.  In- creasing the length of the roads and bridges across the region extending up to the border areas is fast reducing the distance and creating possibilities for economic materiality. Such road-building is a marker for economic space-making which looks for trade surplus, resource extraction, economic agglomeration and labour mobility.

According to data from the Un- ion Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, the total length of roads in the Northeast has increased from 4.81 lakh km to 6.38 lakh km be- tween 2015 and 2019, registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.32 per cent.  In the same time period, surfaced road grew at CAGR of 11.79 per cent. Compared to the national level pro- portion of surfaced road length in total road length, at 72 per cent, the Northeast has only 36 per cent of its total road surfaced. Besides, road-building in the region is not uniform across the eight Northeast- ern States. Based on the latest Government data, of the total road length in the Northeast, Assam covers 62 per cent, followed by Arunachal Pradesh at 9 per cent and Sikkim has the lowest share in total roads among the eight States. On the other hand, Assam has the lowest percentage of surfaced road among all the Northeastern States, which is far below the national lev- el and most of the other Northeastern States, while Sikkim has the highest percentage of surfaced roads. Intra-regional variation exists with differences in their size, topography, and policy emphasis. Variation in the growth rate of road length also exists in all major typ of roads in the region. During the period from 2015 to 2019, Arunachal Pradesh (21 per cent growth), Meghalaya (32 per cent growth), Mizoram (13 per cent growth), and Sikkim (13 per cent growth) have significantly grown their total road length.

Industrial backwardness in the region has been a major challenge since the post-Independence peri- od, and the absence of connectivity infrastructure was seen as one of the biggest impediments in building an industrial hub in the region. Therefore, envisioning significant road projects was necessary to address this major economic challenge. The region is also known for its rural and household-based small-scale units. Rural roads are the key connecting roads for the daily survival of the people across the hills and remote parts of the State. However, the temporalities and suspension dimensions of rural and ther link road projects should be considered according to the geospecific context of topography, climatic conditions, and the availability of local resources.

Among the diverse impacts of road projects, India’s economic liberalisation programmes in the 1990s, the Look East Policy, and the present Act East Policy prioritise the far-flung Northeast as the “connecting gateway” of India for transnational engagement with East and Southeast Asia.

Echoing various significant studies on connectivity in the North- east, heavy investment into road and communication facilities is necessary in a landlocked region such as the Northeast, in view of its pe- culiar topographical features, to enable expansion of markets with- in as well as between the States. Roads are directly related to markets in the context of the so-called frontier region, which is marked by its landlocked nature. The inadequacy of basic infrastructure limits the movement of both goods and people, especially in the hilly areas predominantly inhabited by tribes. For the Northeast, both national highways and rural roads have a very significant impact on the regional economy. Existing empirical studies on road infrastructure in the region also support the argument that not only national high- ways but also rural roads directly impact life and development in the region. Although roads in this geo- graphically advantageous region are expected to scale up the underdeveloped economy, empirical evidence stresses that equal ef- fort needs to be given to the development of rural roads. It is imperative that major district roads, inter- and intra-village roads that connect with national highways, and trans-border highways be given equal importance in order to liber- ate the rural population from their present economic and physical hardship caused by lack of connectivity.

In addition, given the ecological sensitivity of various spaces like the Northeast, such logistical transformation sometimes is seen as a challenge to the exiting eco-structure, which expectedly would reduce the forest and green land of the region. The policy measures may also simultaneously create a green infrastructure, which can balance the ecological sustainability.

Green infrastructure, which is based on the principle of protect- ing and enhancing nature and natural processes can be consciously integrated into spatial planning and territorial development along with road building projects in the North- east. This is currently being practised across various countries. Green infrastructure is a strategically planned network of natural and semi-natural areas with other environmental features designed and managed to deliver a wide range of ecosystem services.

Road construction in the North- east should aim to provide adequate connectivity to people residing in remote areas, guided by the objective of balanced development in the region. The boom in transnational road projects will benefit the locals, and the positive impact of the Act East Policy will spread across the region only if there is adequate infrastructure for rural indigenous.

Nijara Deka is Associate Fellow at NCAER, Views are personal.

It is important to consider multiple time zones for India, perhaps starting with two to keep things simple.

A green revolution is underway, with green energy, green buildings, green transport, green finance and more. It is time to think of ‘greening the time’ to enable our ambitious climate goals.

What does ‘greening the time’ mean?

Fundamentally, it means taking advantage of time or differences in time to smartly advance climate objectives. There are multiple options and strategies that can be deployed.

First, time can be a tool to optimise the consumption of electricity by taking advantage of India’s wide geography. From Arunachal Pradesh to Rajasthan, India spans almost 3,000 km east to west. This means the sun rises almost two hours earlier on the eastern side. A common time across the entire country thus leads to dual loss – unnecessary electricity consumption and lower productivity.

It is therefore important to consider multiple time zones for India, perhaps starting with two to keep things simple. We could have Kolkata time and New Delhi time, separated by an hour. The Kolkata time zone could comprise the north-eastern states, Bihar, Jharkhand, and all states on the east, including Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. The rest of India could follow New Delhi time.

The idea of multiple time zones is not new. In fact, India had three time zones during British rule. More recently, several government functionaries and committees have analysed this in some detail. The National Physical Laboratory (NPL) estimated savings of 2.7 billion units of electricity in 2011, representing more than 3 percentage points of total consumption. Since the NPL study focused only on northeastern states, it is likely that savings will be higher if states on the east coast are included as well.

Worldwide, readjusting clocks is practiced in multiple countries such as the US, Canada, Russia, Brazil and Australia, to save electricity and increase productivity. A 2017 meta-analysis of 44 studies found that daylight saving time (DST) leads to electricity savings of about 1% during the period when it applies.

However, the concept of different time zones for India has been criticised as impractical and politically divisive. We believe that these criticisms may not be relevant in the current times. Many countries, as the list above suggests, have been functioning smoothly without practical difficulties.

Further, given advances in technology and hybrid work culture, Indians nowadays seamlessly support clients and manage teams across time zones. Of course, a communication strategy highlighting the benefits, like the one used for the Swachh Bharat Mission, could help mobilise masses for larger national and environmental objectives.

Based on experience and evidence, we can move to three or four zones sometime in the future. Such zoning will correspond even more closely to the movement of the sun. We also need to adjust the time in winters, when the sun rises later. A one-hour adjustment, starting in October and ending in March, would help optimise productivity and energy consumption.

A second aspect of ‘greening the time’ is to realise electricity costs vary by time. A kilowatt of power demanded during the afternoon has a significantly lower carbon footprint and cost compared to a kilowatt in the late evening. Likewise, the cost of a kilowatt during the monsoon is not the same as a kilowatt in peak winter.

The difference in cost can be substantial. This difference is reflected in spot prices of electricity. In 2023, for example, prices during the evening peak ₹2.75 per kWh higher than the daytime price – a difference of over 62%. Therefore, tariffs need to reflect the cost of generating and transmitting electricity at different times. Some states have introduced green tariffs as voluntary offerings and limited time-of-day tariffs for a few customer categories. While we applaud the effort, systematic introduction of time-of-day tariff for all categories, based on cost differential, is relevant and required from a climate and economic standpoint.

At the macroeconomic level, the role of interest rates as a tool to optimise consumption across time periods cannot be overemphasized. While India needs to grow rapidly to generate new livelihoods and enhance income, we need to grow sustainably to ensure that natural resources are used optimally. In this context, it is critical that consumption across the medium to long term is optimised through monetary and fiscal policy.

India’s energy transition has positioned solar as the top priority. While this makes economic sense, given that India has abundant sunshine for 300 days a year, its disadvantage is that it is available only during the daytime. Differential time zones will enable us to plan work activities when energy is abundant and cheap. Such an approach will truly complement the goal of PM’s Mission LiFE: energy efficiency from all angles.

Dr. Gaurav Bhatiani is director, energy and environment, RTI International India, and Dr Sanjib Pohit is a professor at NCAER