A digitally unprepared workforce

IT skills do not match the standards demanded by the market. Nearly 30 per cent of individuals with such training are jobless.

As the pace of technological change continues to accelerate and demand for such skills outstrips supply, it is time to educate everyone on computer-based skills. The data from the National Sample Survey: Multiple Indicator Survey and Labour Force Periodic Survey (2020-21) indicate a need to broaden the coverage of IT or computer-based training across various sectors.

The World Ecoomic Forum predicts that while 85 million jobs will become obsolete by 2025, technological advancements in artificial intelligence and other fields will lead to the creation of 97 million new jobs. This implies that the number of new jobs will surpass the number of jobs that will be lost. It is expected that the role of machines in the division of labour will continue to increase, especially for repetitive and routine tasks.

Revamping skills

To adapt to the changing job market, it is crucial to restructure the entire skill development system. It is imperative to focus on upskilling the workforce with an eye on emerging technologies and the future of work.

India has an advantage over other countries due to its sizeable working-age population and a significant youth demographic. However, to fully realise this advantage, there is a need for a strategic investment, particularly in the reskilling of the workforce to keep up with the digital transformation.

Given that digital transformation is expected to have a widespread impact, not just on the youth but on a large segment of the workforce, individuals working in various fields will require IT or computer-based skills to remain competitive in the job market.

The NSS 78th Round data (2020-21) indicate a clear need for skilling programmes, particularly in the area of computer and IT skills. For instance, less than 42 per cent of the country’s youth has a basic understanding of copying or moving files or using copy and paste tools on a computer.

Additionally, only 10 per cent and 8.6 per cent of youth have knowledge of basic arithmetic formulae in a spreadsheet and creating an electronic presentation using presentation software, respectively. Moving to more complicated task, the data indicate that only 2.4 per cent of youth have programming skills.

Moreover, the need for computer or IT skills goes beyond these basic abilities. Highly specialised areas like artificial intelligence and automation in manufacturing and production processes require significant training and experience. The recently conducted Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) in 2021 provides insights into vocational and technical training, highlighting a skilled workforce in various fields. The data indicate a disproportionate enrolment of youth in IT-ITeS vocational or technical courses, with a significantly high percentage of 34.7 per cent, in comparison to other courses.

Improving training

Approximately 30 per cent of the trained workforce in different fields have IT training, yet 29 per cent of individuals with such training are unemployed, pointing towards either inadequate training content or poor training quality that results in low employability.

Moreover, the data suggest that IT-trained individuals are not placed in one specialised area but rather in different occupation categories. Notably, the proportion of individuals with IT skills is the largest in most of the occupation category when compared to other vocational or technical fields, suggesting that possessing IT skills has an advantage in securing employment across different occupations.

To remain competitive in the global market, it has become increasingly important for individuals from all sectors to possess specialised IT or computer skills.

The government, recognising this, has implemented several skilling programmes, such as the Skill India Mission and Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana (PMKVY) 4.0. These initiatives aim to train and certify millions of individuals in various vocational skills, including IT and digital skills, with a focus on emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, mechatronics and robotics.

However, the PLFS (2021) data show that only 4.1 per cent of youth received formal training in different fields. As the digital transformation impacts all sectors, it is imperative that a large section of the workforce undergoes significant skilling, upskilling, or reskilling to compete in the digital economy.

The writer is Senior Research Analyst, National Council of Applied Economic Research, Delhi

Maharashtra’s dilemma

Opinion: Sanjib Pohit and Chetana Chaudhuri.

It needs to reduce its fossil fuels dependency.

GHG Platform (India) estimates that public electricity generation in Maharashtra accounts for more than 53 per cent of the total emission from energy sector. This amounts to roughly about 43 per cent of the economy-wide emissions of Maharashtra.

Most of the electricity generation in Maharashtra is coal-based, making the State a huge contributor to the GHG emission (9.83 per cent of India). A major component of Net Zero strategies is to achieve 50 per cent cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2030.

Surely, the power sector in Maharashtra has to play a big role here.

Maharashtra accounts for nearly 12 per cent of the electricity consumption in India — the highest share among the States and UTs — if we go by the statistics of energy sales from different Discoms. Universally, Maharashtra exhibits a high share in India in all segments of consumption: 9 per cent in domestic electricity consumption (only after Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu), 14 per cent in industrial electricity consumption (only after Gujarat), and 15 per cent in agricultural electricity consumption (highest among States and UTs).

According to CEA data, per capita power consumption in Maharashtra is 1588 KWh which is much higher than that of all-India level (1255 KWh) in 2021-22.

By and large, Maharashtra is self-sufficient in electricity production, only 10 per cent of the total power is imported. However, Maharashtra is heavily dependent on coal based electricity (nearly 76 per cent), even though it also produces electricity from other sources, namely nuclear (6 per cent), bio (3 per cent), solar (2 per cent, wind (5 per cent), hydro (4 per cent), and remaining from other sources.

Moreover, Maharashtra has 6 per cent share in India’s total non-utility electricity consumption (captive power plants).

Major reason behind this is the large industrial sector.

Even though Maharashtra has the third highest renewable energy capacity among States with a cumulative capacity of 9,332 MW, amounting to 21 per cent of the total capacity (Power Sector Vision 2030), it will not be an easy task for Maharashtra to move away from fossil based energy.

Two options
In terms of generation, only 15 per cent of electricity is produced by renewable energy sources, including solar, wind, bio power and hydro sources.

With growing demand for power from domestic and industrial sector, it is a necessity for the State to increase power supply, for which it has two options under the net-zero scenario: either to import power, or to generate electricity through renewable sources.

The first is costly and uncertain. On the second, as an alternative to purchasing power from private generating companies, industries need to be encouraged to explore the possibilities of setting up renewable power plants and may be allowed to sell their surplus power, if any, to the grid, on a remunerative tariff.

Incentives like discounted wheeling and banking charges, net metering for rooftop solar installations etc. would encourage renewable energy captive generation. These opportunities can also be explored especially for the farmers, who can supply solar electricity to the grid.

The land underneath solar PV panels can easily be utilised for growing fruits and vegetables. For mainstreaming the renewable energy sources, the grid needs to be flexible to adapt to the patterns of generation.

Supply side flexibility can be enhanced through utility-scale battery storage supporting load-shifting and capacity reserve. Demand-side flexibility, which can be supported by battery storage or smart charging of electric vehicles, can help in effective integration of renewable energy generation and managing extra load to peak demand.

Chetana, Sanjib are with NCAER. Views are personal

Monthly Review of the Economy: April 2023

In the Review, we summarise the economic and policy developments in India; monitor global developments of relevance to India; and showcase the pulse of the economy through an analysis of high-frequency indicators and the heat map.

Click here for previous issues.

Press Release: NCAER-NSE Business Expectations Survey for 2022–23:Q4

Business sentiments turned buoyant in 2022–23: Q4, rising both sequentially and in comparison to the corresponding period last year, though sentiments about business prospects for the next six months remain mixed.

The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), one of India’s premier economic policy research think tanks, carried out the 124th Round of its Business Expectations Survey (BES) in March 2023, with support from the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE). NCAER has been carrying out the BES every quarter since 1992, covering 500 firms across four regions.

After moderating for three consecutive quarters in 2022–23 on a sequential basis, business sentiments turned buoyant in March 2023, though there is a mixed trend in sentiments about business prospects for the next six months. While sentiments about production, domestic sales, pre-tax profits and new orders improved in 2022–23:Q4 versus 2022–23:Q3, expectations about exports, imports of raw materials, and ex-factory prices remained muted.

In 2022–23:Q4, the BCI rose to 149.7. It was higher than the previous quarter at 126.6 in 2022–23:Q3 and the corresponding quarter in the previous year at 142.9 in 2021–22:Q4.

The BCI is driven by four components, with each of them being assigned equal weights in the Index – ‘overall economic conditions will be better in the next six months’, ‘financial position of the firms will improve in the next six months’, ‘present investment climate is positive’ and ‘present capacity utilisation is close to or above optimal level’.  The share of positive responses was higher for all four components of the BCI in 2022–23:Q4 compared to 2022–23:Q3.

The latest BES Report can be accessed and downloaded from here.

Methodology: NCAER has been conducting the BES every quarter since 1991. The BES findings reported here relate to 500 firms. The survey elicits responses from firms across six cities to assess business sentiments in the four regions of India: Delhi-NCR, representing the North; Mumbai and Pune, the West; Kolkata, the East; and Bengaluru and Chennai, the South. All the industries are represented in terms of ownership type (including public sector, private limited, and public limited firms, partnerships/individually owned firms, and multinational corporations); the industry sector (including consumer durables, consumer non-durables, intermediate goods, capital goods, and services); and firm size based on the annual turnovers of the firms (in the range of less than or equal to ₹1 crore, more than ₹1 crore to less than or equal to 10 crore, more than ₹10 crore to less than or equal to ₹100 crore, more than ₹100 crore to less than or equal to 500 crore, and more than ₹500 crore). The sample is drawn randomly from a list of firms in each city. A sizeable number of units taken in one round are retained in the next round to maintain continuity of the analysis.

The BCI is computed on the basis of responses from firms to four questions. Two of these questions focus on macro factors and the other two on micro factors. All the questions carry equal weight. The BCI is a simple average of all the positive responses in the case of three questions, whereas in the case of the fourth question on capacity utilisation, an average of the sum of the responses indicating ‘improvement’ and ‘status quo’ is taken. Thereafter, the BCI is compared with the base value (denoted by the value of 100 in Round 7; 1993) to determine any change. An increase in the level of the BCI (signified by a larger share of positive responses) reflects optimism in the business sector about the performance of the economy.

India Human Development Survey: April 2023

The IHDS Forum is a monthly update of publications, op-eds and data news based on the India Human Development Survey (IHDS), which was jointly conducted by NCAER and the University of Maryland in two rounds, in 2004-05 and 2011-12. The third round of the project has also been launched and is currently underway.

    Get updates from NCAER