With India’s demographic transition, come challenges

The demographic dividend is smaller but will last longer due to regional variation in the onset of fertility decline. As southern states struggle with the growing burden of supporting the elderly northern states will supply the workforce needed for growth.

Success brings its challenges. The first challenge is accepting the win the second is to learn to live with it. Recent results from National Family Health Survey-5 (NFHS-5) suggest that we are entering an era where we will have to tackle these challenges. NFHS-5 places the total fertility rate (TFR) at 2.0. With two parents having two children we have reached a replacement level of fertility. Due to many young people the population will continue to grow but the replacement level fertility is a significant milestone in India’s demographic history.

India Human Development Survey Forum, December 2021

The IHDS Forum is a monthly update of publications, op-eds and data news based on the India Human Development Survey (IHDS), which was jointly conducted by NCAER and the University of Maryland in two waves, in 2004-05 and 2011-12. Preparations are underway for launching the third wave soon.

Monthly Review of the Economy – December 2021

In the Review, we summarise the economic and policy developments in India; monitor global developments of relevance to India; and showcase the pulse of the economy through an analysis of high-frequency indicators and the heat map.

Crypto-assets: To ban or not to ban?

Opinion: K P Krishnan 

Financial regulation is about striking the right balance between enabling innovation and ensuring customer protection.

Cryptocurrencies or more correctly crypto-assets may be a nightmare for regulatory policy but they are a columnist’s delight! The number of op-ed words on this topic just in the recent weeks may now equal the purported number of Indian investors in these assets. However the topic is important and multi-dimensional enough to justify one more column. 

Crypto-assets in taxonomic rank are more like a genus and not a species. Put simply this is not a homogeneous group — and the characteristics and utility of one token say Bitcoin may be very different from another say XRP. This divergence in qualities lends itself towards the confusion surrounding their classification — while some exhibit properties akin to securities several do not.

Their origins may be as a (better) replacement for fiat currency— that is as a medium of exchange. But the current difficult policy and regulatory questions in India arise in the context of cryptos as assets — that is as a store of value. The argument for a ban on these is that these are (digital) assets with (arguably) no underlying value that trade (almost exclusively) on speculation — rendering them an extraordinarily volatile asset class for the retail investor. Yet value like beauty lies in the eyes of the (be) holder. If 20 million Indians (and mostly young) hold these assets then this expression of economic freedom needs to be respected and the argument to ban this needs to be made more carefully.

Over the past many decades in India financial sector regulation has followed recurring patterns when confronted with a “disruptive innovation”. In the heydays of socialism the dominant instinct was to ban products that were not considered socially desirable. For example the preamble to the erstwhile Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act 1952 was explicitly “An Act to provide for the prohibition of options in goods” until its repeal in September 2015. However risk management experts tell us the options in goods serve an important economic purpose and sure enough options in goods were finally allowed in India in January 2020.

Post-liberalisation India moved from outright bans to “controls”. For example the 1998 expert committee on derivatives recommended controlled opening up of this market with a prohibition on some derivatives for example individual stock futures. Four years later this was permitted when the harmlessness of this “innovation” was established in the eyes of the regulator through observation of markets in other countries. The stock futures market on the National Stock Exchange now trades a daily volume of Rs 85000 crore!

This approach towards financial  Sector “innovations” — of exerting restrictive control while waiting and watching is often justified as prioritising the immediate goal of investor protection. This has some merit but should by no means be the automatic path to be taken by regulators. This is simply because this approach damagingly comes at the risk of stifling benign innovation which could carry the weight of lost opportunities downstream. It will be useful to recall that many of the fintech products leading the charge towards financial inclusion and improving delivery of financial services today were not seen with the same confidence a few years ago. There were odd calls for their bans then which thankfully were not acted upon. It is also useful to remember in this context that like fintech there are strong links between crypto-assets and India’s sunrise industry IT services.

The Supreme Court’s restraint of the Reserve Bank of India in Internet and Mobile Association of India v. RBI serves as a timely reminder to regulators and lawmakers that any action that restricts any occupation trade or business must be reasonable and within the scheme of Article 19(1)(g) of the Indian Constitution. In other words unless there are unavoidable tangible harms that necessitate a blanket ban on crypto-assets judicial scrutiny is likely to be tough. The burden of proof that rests on the government to show that larger public interest warrants a prohibitory approach in respect of these assets has not yet been discharged.

If regulation and not banning is the agreed way forward it is important to understand the reasons why Indian regulators did not act immediately on regulating this emerging nay exploding asset class. Regulators are bound by their existing mandates under their parent legislation on what they can and cannot do. When we consider “crypto-assets” neither the RBI nor the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) are specifically empowered to deal with it. Reportedly Indian regulators are fighting over turf— this time arguing that it is outside their respective turfs.

In part anticipation of this the Financial Sector Legislative Reforms Commission in March 2013 had said that “the present arrangement has gaps where no regulator is in charge”.

Presciently it noted that “over the years these problems will be exacerbated through technological and financial innovation”. Based on this and other relevant considerations the report recommended the setting up of a unified financial agency that would implement consumer protection law and micro-prudential law for all financial firms other than banking and payments. It is time for us to revisit the unified financial regulatory architecture so that we are not looking for the right agency to regulate an activity while unregulated activity thrives often at the expense of gullible consumers.

To sum up usually innovation happens by taking liberties on the margins of law. It is often the regulatory framework that has to find a way to catch up and regulate it. Given the characteristics of crypto-assets regulators ought to build capacity in both the technological and economic aspects of crypto-assets. When such assets are regulated the extent to which investors/consumers are protected will depend on how much the regulator understands the asset. Fundamentally the points of market failure in crypto-assets leading to risks for consumers are similar to those in other financial products and services. These are cyber security breaches loss of savings deceptive/unfair practices etc. However the decentralised management of crypto-assets may also trigger unique points of market failure. Developing regulatory capacity to understand and monitor this activity is crucial for customer protection as well as preserving the incentive for innovation and entrepreneurship.

The writer is professor NCAER member of a few for-profit and not-for- profit boards and former civil servant.

Climate justice to net-zero emission: A change in narrative

India needs to emphasise to the world where its scorecard is better than many of the developed countries who frequently lecture India on emission flows.

Recently yet another COPs meeting was held in Glasgow. Compared to the low-key meetings in the last couple of years this year’s meeting seems to have ended on a high note. The developed countries have been quite successful in delinking the narrative of stock of historical emission in the carbon space contributed by the developed countries to the issue of current emissions. The bad guys are of course the emerging countries like India and China.

The nudge towards this was slowly evident in the last few years when pressures in various forums was being built on developing countries to identify the peaking year of carbon emissions. Many countries including China followed suit and identified the peaking year as per their development pathways. To my best knowledge India never officially announced a peaking year even though they may have worked in the official circle before announcing 2070 as the target year for Net Zero emissions. A bold announcement by India’s Prime Minister in a meeting like this gives a strong message.

As I recollect a similar message by the Prime Minister in Paris meeting paves the way for the significant shift towards renewable in India’s energy spectrum. However the task is much more challenging this time. India has to depend mostly on own resources as developed countries are not very forthcoming in allocating funds to developing countries like India for the transition. Moreover as climate changes become more evident as years go by it is expected that the pressure will be on all countries including India to advance the target year for net zero emissions.

Thus India needs to do the homework seriously on pathways to reduce emissions. Also India needs to emphasize to the world where its scorecard is better than many of the developed countries who frequently lecture India on emission flows. By and large India has taken has taken a laidback approach most of the time.

For instance there are two board sources of emission: consumption process as well as production process. It is in our interest where we stand vis-a-vis each of the components. On the consumption side India’s households emit a minuscule compared to the rich households of the developed countries. This is true even for the ultra-rich households of India versus the same in developed countries. This happens because of contrasting life. Many of the Indian consumer electrical goods are energy efficient due to the introduction of star rating system of such goods by BEES thereby lowering emission. Similarly most of the Indian personal automobiles are fuel-efficient compared to fuel guzzling automobiles of USAleading to lower emission. However Indians are not very forthcoming to point out these facts in the global meet with evidences. Alas Indian researchers have not invested in this kind of fact-finding research for global consumption.

The production process needs more attention as most emission takes place here. Here also there are sectors where Indian industries compare well with the developed ones. We need to do an objectives analysis of such cases and produce evidence to the world. In the process we will know where we need to take corrective actions. Of course these need in-depth research where the funds need to be invested by government and/or the private sector.

Over the years a lot of investment came in the energy intensive sectors from the developed countries due to the laxity in Indian environmental norm. More such investments may be forthcoming as other countries strengthen their environmental norms to gear their economy towards net-zero emission target. It is high time that India also takes an objective decision regarding the environmental norm how best these polluting industries may be modernized and whether the investment policy on establishing such industries should be revised. Our major trading partner European Union is discussing the imposition of a carbon border adjustment tax on imports based on the amount of carbon emissions resulting from the production of a product in question. India needs to have a well-thought-out policy on energy-intensive products.

India’s agricultural practices need introspection. Free power free water in the Northern India belt has encouraged deep-water paddy cultivation practices which inadvertently leads to higher emission.  India’s farm sector nearly accounts for 14 per cent of the country’s total greenhouse gas emissions preceded by electricity (44 per cent) and manufacturing industries and construction sectors combined (18 per cent). Thus the farm sector needs special focus if we have to achieve net zero emission.

The writer is a professor at  NCAER New Delhi. The views expressed are personal.

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