Newsletter: Oct-Nov-21

Our newsletter keeps you informed about our work: studies, publications, Op-Eds, events, other research engagements and discussions on various topics. You will find the back issues of the NCAER Newsletter below: Oct-Nov 2021

Monthly Review of the Economy – November 2021

In the Review, we summarise the economic and policy developments in India; monitor global developments of relevance to India; and showcase the pulse of the economy through an analysis of high-frequency indicators and the heat map.

Previous Issue:
October 2021

Who is my regulator?

Opinion: K P Krishnan

RBI’s recent actions against auditors highlight the need for role clarity as well as coordination among regulators.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor drew our attention earlier this week to the importance of accurate financial information for resource allocation market confidence and financial stability. Establishment and enforcement of accounting and audit standards and the regulation of the profession which practices this occupation is therefore crucial for financial markets and the economy.

Earlier in the month the RBI issued an order debarring a firm of chartered accountants from undertaking any type of audit assignment in any RBI regulated entity for a period of two years. This action has been taken according to the RBI press release on account of the failure on the part of the audit firm to comply with a specific direction (reportedly on classification and provisioning for some loans) issued by the RBI with respect to its statutory audit of a systemically important non-banking financial company. After this order it will be a very brave or a foolhardy company —whether RBI regulated or otherwise— that will engage the debarred CA firm as its auditor.

In January 2018 the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) had issued an order under the Sebi Act banning another CA firm and a couple of its auditors from providing audit services to listed companies and market intermediaries for a specified period for their involvement in the accounting scam in a large listed company. In addition Sebi ordered disgorgement of “wrongful gains” of over Rs 13 crore — the estimated fees of that particular engagement. These orders are now in appeal before the Supreme Court (SC).

While we await the final orders of the SC it is clear that the RBI and Sebi have effectively become the regulator and disciplinary authority for the subset of chartered accountants in the domains regulated by them.

The Institute of Chartered Accountants of India (ICAI) is a body established by The Chartered Accountants Act 1949 for regulating the profession of chartered accountancy. The ICAI is managed by a council of 40 members of whom 32 are elected by chartered accountants and the remaining eight are nominated by various public authorities. Regulating the profession of accountancy formulation of accounting standards and prescription of standard auditing procedures and disciplining and taking action on misconduct by auditors are the core functions of the ICAI.

The ICAI like other regulators of “professions” is thus structured as a self-regulatory organisation (SRO). Over the years its record in disciplining errant members has not been noteworthy. As a consequence there has been a growing tendency among sectoral regulators to discipline the auditors. Unfortunately this has other serious consequences. An additional negative fallout of this could be the gradual withdrawal of good firms from the audit of public interested entities. Already the audit business is taking a back seat with growing remuneration from non-audit services.

At least in part response to this the ICAI instituted a new disciplinary mechanism in 2007. The website of the ICAI reports that since then it has registered a large number of disciplinary cases. Despite a few tough orders like the ban on the Sebi indicted chartered accountants referred to above the findings of guilt though better than before are still a very low percentage of cases initiated.

In parallel in the wake of some large corporate accounting and auditing scandals in the late 1990s many OECD countries established bodies to oversee the audits of public companies in order to protect investors and further the public interest in the preparation of informative accurate and independent audit reports. In line with this global development the National Financial Reporting Authority (NFRA) was constituted by the Government of India on October 1 2018 under the new Companies Act of 2013.

Broadly the NFRA has the power to monitor and enforce compliance with accounting and auditing standards oversee the quality of service and undertake investigation of the auditors of a class of companies. These include companies whose securities are listed on any stock exchange in India or outside. Large unlisted public companies with a paid-up capital or annual turnover or debt above prescribed thresholds all insurance & banking companies are within the NFRA’s jurisdiction. For the balance class of companies the ICAI continues to be the regulator of the profession.

The accounting and auditing fraternity is expectedly unhappy with the dilution of its self-regulatory role. In November 2018 the Northern India CA Federation had challenged the constitutional validity of powers given to the NFRA. The Delhi High Court disposed of this case because the petitioner failed to argue the matter. A similar petition has been filed by another CA which is pending before the Madras High Court. In the IL&FS case the NFRA debarred three senior partners of the Big Four firms from practice for a certain number of years. As a result all of them have challenged the constitutional validity of powers given to the NFRA.

While we wait for the final orders of the courts on these pending matters the present situation offers an opportunity to put in place a clear regulatory framework and machinery for the conduct of the accounting and auditing profession. If the twin regulatory model continues this should ideally be in one consolidated legislation with clarity on the respective roles of ICAI and NFRA. Given the incentives of a peer group elected SRO the disciplining arm of the ICAI will need to be restructured and strengthened to improve its effectiveness and credibility. Both ICAI and NFRA have representatives of sectoral regulators on their key decision-making bodies. These will need to be fully energised to become robust mechanisms for sectoral inputs as well as operational regulatory coordination and co-operation.

As the economy becomes more complex India will need to strengthen the regulatory frameworks in other similar cross-cutting domains like data protection and competition. Is financial data protection a financial sector issue or a data protection regulatory issue? Likewise competition in banking straddles two regulatory domains. Resolving these issues will increasingly call for establishing coordination mechanisms for sectoral and domain regulators to cooperate without dilution of their respective responsibilities. The restructured accounting and auditing regulatory and supervisory mechanism can show the way for the future.

The writer is professor NCAER member of a few for-profit and not-for- profit boards and former civil servant

Why Indian employment experience is anything like the ‘great American resignation’

First unlike Americans opting out of the workforce is not an option for most Indians. The existence of the vast informal sector offers refuge to employees pushed out of wage employment. Second this employment of last resort should not be taken to imply a robust recovery.

Even as vaccinations soar and the US economy reignites of the 52 economists surveyed earlier this month by the Wall Street Journal 22 predict a fundamental shift in how Americans view work. The labour force participation may never rebound. So what is the Indian experience? Are we also looking at a different normal?

Along with shuttering businesses trains and schools data collection has also paused. Nonetheless diverse sources of data while incomplete in themselves allow us to develop a shadowy picture of the recovery.

These data suggest that the Indian employment challenge is quite different from the one faced by the US. Voluntary withdrawal especially for women in the US does not characterise India’s employment scene. The Indian experience suggests a strong desire to resume work even when jobs are elusive.

The National Data Innovation Centre (NDIC) at the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) has been collecting data on households in the Delhi NCR region. Several stylised observations comparing the same individuals over time and taking into account the seasonal nature of employment as well as education place of residence and social background are noteworthy.

One the Delhi Metropolitan Area Survey (DMAS) indicates a sharp drop in seasonally adjusted employment immediately following the first lockdown in April-June 2020. The employment rate for men aged 21-59 fell from a pre-pandemic high of 88% to 63% in April-June 2020.

Women’s employment rates declined from 33% to 23%. While these numbers only reflect the Delhi NCR region the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) conducted nationwide has also shown a sharp decline in worker population ratio for men aged 15 and above from 67% to 57% and for women from 19.6% to 15.5%. The DMAS data are based on a different questionnaire design than PLFS so the absolute levels are not comparable. But both present a similar picture.

Two once phased reopening began in June 2020 employment began to recover sharply. By Q4 2020 employment had almost returned to nearly pre-pandemic levels – 83% for men and 32% for women. Similar results are shown by Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) data that find employment rates were only about 4% lower in December 2020 than the prior year.

Stalled at U-Turn

Three the second wave of Covid-19 in March 2021 did not lead to the sharp employment contraction visible during the first round of lockdowns. During April-June 2021 employment rates in the DMAS sample fell to 78% for men and 28% for women. This is only about half the drop experienced during the first lockdown in 2020. By September most of this loss had been recouped and male employment was 81% while women were 33%. The CMIE data also show that after a drop in April- June 2021 by September 2021 the employment rate returned to Q1 2021 levels.

Other indications however suggest that this recovery is fragile. The DMAS data show that much of this recovery rests on self-employment in agriculture or petty business. Whether in salaried jobs or casual labour wage employment has declined substantially – falling from 46% pre-Covid to 36% in July-September 2021 for men and from 13% to 9% for women. Self-employment in agriculture or small business increased from 36% to 41% for men and from 21% to 24% for women.

On average incomes in informal self-employment have always been lower than those for individuals in salaried work. So while self employment has offered some support to workers losing wage work this may not fully cushion against the income shock.

NCAER’s December 2020 NDIC’s Delhi NCR Coronavirus Telephone Survey 4 (DCVTS-4) found that 9% of the respondent households could no longer rely on their pre-pandemic primary source of income. These households seem the most vulnerable with 29% reporting experiencing hunger instead of 12% among households that could continue their pre- pandemic activities. Other data including those from an Azim Premji University survey in Rajasthan and Karnataka in February 2020 and August-September 2020 showing a startling increase in households reporting zero income confirm this concern.

Employment recovery is most sluggish in urban areas. Before the pandemic the Delhi NCR study found 81% employment among urban men which has dropped to 69% in July-September 2021 while rural male employment is at its pre-pandemic level. Similarly work participation for men whose households belong to the top one-fifth of economic status before the pandemic has fully recovered from the employment loss they experienced during the initial lockdown. Those in the fourth quintile are close behind. The bottom three quintiles have yet to recoup their employment losses.

Unlocking is Key

These observations highlight two things. First unlike Americans opting out of the workforce is not an option for most Indians. The existence of the vast informal sector offers refuge to employees pushed out of wage employment. Second this employment of last resort should not be taken to imply a robust recovery. Hence restoring opportunities for salaried work and increasing wage employment in the construction and manufacturing sectors deserve particular attention.

The strong policy emphasis on expanding vaccination coverage may help offices factories and schools reopen fully bringing back salaried jobs. Also if the announced infrastructure push is successful particularly if it begins with labour-intensive urban infrastructure projects that may enhance opportunities for urban casual labourers.

The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com

Full capital account convertibility: Will merits outweigh the risks?

RBI (not GoI) announcing a push towards CAC – widely seen as increasing the vulnerability of emerging market economies to global macroeconomic shocks – on the day the Global Hunger Index (GHI) showed India slip three ranks to fall below Pakistan Bangladesh and Nepal marks a seismic shift in India’s macroeconomic policies.

India is on the cusp of a fundamental shift [toward capital account convertibility] with increased market integration in the offing and freer non-resident access to debt on the table’ said RBI Deputy Governor T Rabi Sankar speaking at the Fifth Foreign Exchange Dealers’ Association of India Annual Day last Thursday. With that one sentence he resurrected a debate that had long been laid to rest even by the most ardent fan of capital account…

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/et-commentary/full-capital-account-convertibility-will-merits-outweigh-the-risks/articleshow/87168347.cms

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