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Minding the gaps in India’s data infrastructure

The national discourse can ill-afford the danger of being hijacked by the poor quality of data.

Last week demographers from around the world gathered in Delhi to mark 25 years of National Family Health Surveys (NFHS). It was both a celebratory and sombre moment. Policymakers and researchers celebrated tremendous achievements of four rounds of the NFHS since 1992-93; these have provided data on Indian families and allowed for development and evaluation of public policies regarding population health education and the empowerment of women. It was also heartening to see the political commitment towards ensuring the continuation of this outstanding survey programme at regular and predictable intervals. Nonetheless a single concern permeated the two-day conference. Can India’s existing data infrastructure support high quality data collection or are we staring at a precipice where deteriorating data quality will lead evidence-based policy development astray?

Presentations by Dr. Amy Tsui Professor at Johns Hopkins University and Dr. Santanu Pramanik Deputy Director National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER)-National Data Innovation Centre on contraceptive use highlighted the difficulties in obtaining reliable high quality data. Between 2005-06 and 2015-16 the total fertility rate (TFR) declined from 2.68 to 2.18 births. However instead of being accompanied by increased contraceptive use as would happen during normal circumstances contraceptive use also declined from 56.3% to 53.5%. Using different approaches both Prof. Tsui and Dr. Pramanik came to the same conclusion — that this aberration must be attributed at least partially to declining quality of contraceptive use data in NFHS-4.

Much of the data quality discussions in the past have erupted when politically sensitive results around topics such as GDP growth rate or poverty rates have been released and partisan bickering allows for little room to think about data collection systems. A retrospective look at the way in which an outstanding programme of research such as the NFHS has changed over time along with the nation it chronicles and emerging challenges facing the NFHS and other data collection efforts provide an opportunity to look at overall challenges facing our data infrastructure in a constructive manner.

As Pravin Srivastava Chief Statistician of India noted at the NFHS conference there is an amazing greed for data in modern India. This greed ranges from wanting to evaluate success of Poshan Abhiyaan (nutrition programme) to measuring changes in the aspirational districts. However he also noted that the once vaunted Indian statistical infrastructure is crumbling and is not able to fulfil even its traditional tasks let alone meet these new demands.

Being realistic

I would like to submit that every government over the past two decades has been complicit in this neglect. If we are to move towards developing a more robust data infrastructure subscribing to the following core principles may be a good start. First set realistic goals and use creative strategies. In order to obtain data at the district level the sample size grew from about one lakh households in NFHS-3 to over six lakhs in NFHS-4. At that time the National Statistical Commission had expressed a concern that such an expansion may reduce data quality. There was a fair amount of agreement among the participants at the NFHS conference that this concern may have been prescient. The government’s need for district-level estimates of various health and population parameters is legitimate but do we need to rely on household surveys to obtain them? With a variety of small area estimation techniques available for pooling data from diverse sources to obtain robust estimates at district level it may make sense for us to think of alternatives and to make sure that we obtain required local government directory identifiers in each aspect of government data including Census sample registration system and Ayushman Bharat payment systems to ensure that these data can be pooled and leveraged.

Ensuring quality

Second adapt to changing institutional and technological environment for data collection. Veterans of the Indian statistical system blame deteriorating data quality on the move from regular employees to contract investigators at the National Sample Survey and use of for-profit data collection agencies in the NFHS. For better or worse that train has left the station. Rising government salaries combined with increased technological needs of modern data collection systems make it difficult to rely on veteran investigators in the civil services to meet all of government data needs. However if we are going to rely on outside data collectors what do we need to do to ensure quality? Some of the initiatives undertaken by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation for developing training programmes for investigators offer a welcome improvement but stop far short of the radical restructuring of data collection oversight.

I have enormous empathy for field investigators. They work under difficult conditions and are sometimes employed by for-profit agencies that require unrealistically high levels of output. Nonetheless this is the data that guides the policies affecting millions of Indians and must be faithfully collected. Where interviewers make a mistake they must be retrained. Where agencies impose an unrealistic workload they must be checked. However discovering mistakes after data collection has been completed is far too late to take any corrective steps. Concurrent monitoring using technologically-enabled procedures such as random voice recording of interviews judicious back checks and evaluation of agency and interviewer performance on parameters such as skipping sections inconsistent data and consistent misreporting may be needed to ensure quality. Academician Dr. Leela Visaria noted the declining role of State population research centres in NFHS data collection. It may be worth investigating if they can be involved in quality monitoring.

Need for exclusive units

Third establish research units exclusively focused on data collection and research design. At one point in time innovative research on the NSS was undertaken by an associated unit at the Indian Statistical Institute in Kolkata. Since the dissolution of this association very little research on data collection techniques takes place in India. We know little about whether men or women are better responders for data on household consumption expenditure. Nor do we know the extent of discrepancy in reporting on employment data between a direct response from women in the household vis-à-vis a proxy response via the household head. Do Likert scales that ask individuals to respond on their health status in five categories work well in India or do Indian respondents avoid choosing extreme categories? How does the presence of other people bias responses on contraceptive use? And does it have an equal impact on reported pill use as it does on sterilisation?

While research on data collection methods has stagnated research methodologies have changed phenomenally. Telephone surveys via random digit dialling or selection of respondents using voter lists are increasingly emerging as low-cost ways of collecting data. However we know little about representativeness of such samples. Are men or women more likely to respond to telephone surveys? Are migrants from other States well represented on the voter list?

Unless we pay systematic attention to the data infrastructure we are likely to have the national discourse hijacked by poor quality data as has happened in the past with a measurement of poverty or inconsistent data on GDP.

Sonalde Desai is Professor of Sociology University of Maryland and Professor and Centre Director NCAER-National Data Innovation Centre. The views expressed are personal

An inclusive strategy for India to revive its economic growth

Putting more money in the hands of the poor who have a high propensity to consume should be the aim of our fiscal policy.

Abhijit Banerjee Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer have just been awarded the 2019 economics Nobel for their work on combating poverty. Banerjee Raghuram Rajan and others have also underlined the seriousness of the growth slowdown in India. There could be no better time to argue the case for an inclusive strategy to revive growth. 

From a peak of 8.1% in the fourth quarter of 2017-18 growth in gross domestic product (GDP) has now decelerated to a six-year low of 5% in the fiscal first quarter with a slowdown visible across all sectors. Particularly important in this context is the compression of government expenditure. Central government revenue grew only 6% last year more than 11% short of the budget estimate. Accordingly expenditure growth was compressed to 6.9% last year down from more than 11% the year before. Weak revenue growth meant devolution to states also fell short forcing them to cut expenditure. This compression of government spending at a time when all major components of aggregate demand were already slowing has been an important driver of the sharp decline in economic growth. 

We now require a macroeconomic strategy to revive aggregate demand in the short-run while initiating structural reforms to sustain growth over the long-term. Given the grim global economic environment reliance will have to be placed on internal sources to generate demand. The measures the government has announced are largely in response to demands of specific interest groups such as foreign portfolio investors real estate companies automobile companies etc. These have mostly been piecemeal supply-side interventions which may help these specific interest groups but won’t reverse the collapse in aggregate demand. 

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has repeatedly cut the repo rate to revive demand and has also taken other measures to ease the availability of credit. However in real terms the policy rate is still rising and these steps have amounted to pushing on a loose string because the binding constraint on credit flow appears to lie elsewhere—in the lack of credit demand in some segments and credit exposure limits in others. With limited traction for monetary policy the burden of growth stimulation must fall mostly on fiscal policy. Here the unrealistic assumptions of the 2019-20 budget are quite worrying. It has been assumed that tax revenue and total revenue will grow by 25.3% and 25.6% respectively though they both grew by only 8.9% in 2018-19. The expenditure targets are equally unrealistic. Hence there will be another large revenue shortfall and corresponding expenditure shock this year further reducing growth. 

Clearly the 2019-20 budget will have to be substantially revised in the winter session of Parliament or earlier to arrest the crisis. In fact tax policy has already been revised after the budget with a large reduction in corporate tax rates. These are likely to have a strong positive impact on growth in the medium- to long-term. In the short-term though they will exacerbate the revenue shortfall as the government itself has pointed out. In comparison the impact of an increase in government spending would be direct and fast especially if it puts more money in the hands of poor consumers who have a high propensity to consume. That would have a strong multiplier effect and this should be the guiding principle for an inclusive fiscal strategy to revive growth. 

However such spending cannot be financed through more borrowing. The total public sector borrowing requirement for the Centre states and public enterprises amounts to over 9% of GDP while household financial savings amount to only 7% of GDP. With such severe crowding out the deficit needs to be shrunk not increased. So what should be done?

Extraordinary conditions call for extraordinary measures. Deep fiscal reforms could create enough fiscal space to substantially increase pro-poor spending and revive growth while reducing the fiscal deficit; all this without raising tax rates. If this sounds too good to be true here is the arithmetic. The revenue shortfall in 2018-19 was mainly on account of a leaky goods and services tax administration based on an incomplete electronic information system—the Goods and Services Tax Network (GSTN). Further the 2019-20 receipts budget shows the government is foregoing revenue to the tune of 5% of GDP on account of tax concessions and exemptions whose public benefit is unclear. Another 5% of GDP is typically spent on non-merit subsidies. Further the Comptroller and Auditor General has estimated that savings due to excess appropriations amount to 1.5% of GDP. Fixing the GSTN on a war footing paring down tax exemptions and rationalizing subsidies can free up fiscal space to the tune of 6-7% of GDP. 

This can be used to finance an inclusive growth revival strategy with three components. First building on the PM-Kisan programme Maitreesh Ghatak and Karthik Muralidharan in a paper An Inclusive Growth Dividend: Reframing The Role Of Income Transfers In India’s Anti-Poverty Strategy have made a compelling case for extending the ₹6000 income support per farmer to all citizens which would cost 1% of GDP. This income support could be increased to ₹12000 per citizen per year doubling the cost to 2% of GDP. This support could grow with the economy.

Second education health and infrastructure are all underfunded. Additional funding of 1% of GDP could be provided to each of these. Lastly the remaining fiscal space could be used to cut the fiscal deficit.

Sudipto Mundle is a Distinguished Fellow at the National Council of Applied Economic Research 

‘Innovative’ model of idol immersion in Delhi that avoids the Yamuna, But are we still in murky waters?

Breaking away from the age-old tradition of immersing idols in rivers such as Yamuna this year set a new trend in Delhi. Following the directive of the National Green Tribunal-appointed committee idol immersion in the Yamuna this Dussehra was largely avoided albeit reluctantly by the ritual loving public. Instead the idols were immersed in artificially created ponds/ pits at various pre-designated locations.

The logic behind this move is that idol immersion adds to pollution of river water as heavy metals used in idol decoration and colouring are harmful for various aquatic species. Moreover it is argued that if the same polluted river water is used for irrigating the vegetables cultivated on Yamuna’s flood plains heavy metals could well enter our food chain. Now that would be double jeopardy which naturally called for action.

Deliverance seemed to come for Delhiites in the form of the NGT diktat widely lauded as an innovative solution which helped the devout retain their ritual without polluting the rivers. So one could well conclude that with this move religion and policy happily co-exist and all is well for citizens of Delhi.

Now it would be interesting to see how this solution offered by NGT holds up if one were to introduce logic into this mix. It is well known that alternate water bodies have been temporarily created and no efforts made to ensure that the harmful chemicals released from the idols after immersion do not percolate underground. By the same logic one could infer that this too could have larger more serious implications.  Instead of water pollution affecting the river Yamuna ground water of entire Delhi may become contaminated! 

Moreover decentralisation of idol immersion to multiple water bodies necessitates redoubling of efforts to monitor ground pollution level post immersion days which is manpower intensive.  But do we have the requisite resources for this? The answer is evidently no. Consequently there is a distinct possibility that ground water pollution may rise.

If one were to take a holistic view Yamuna is almost a dead river year-round regardless of idol immersion. If polluting factors for Yamuna were to be measured in a year the share of idol immersion would hardly amount to 5%. Discharge by untreated sewerage and industrial effluents are the primary cause for the river’s sorry state in Delhi. It is estimated that 130 mgd of untreated effluent sewage flows into the Yamuna at present including three major drains which carry more than 70% of NCR’s raw sewage into its main water body.  For this reason even during monsoons the quality of water in the Yamuna is still unsuitable for bathing or drinking.

Inadequate waste management poor implementation of environmental regulation and unregulated construction on the flood plains are the principal issues plaguing the Yamuna. Despite this alarming scenario for 340 days of the year we remain apathetic when untreated sewerage or construction material continues to be dumped into the Yamuna. Only for 20 days during idol immersion our eco-consciousness comes to the fore and intellectual discourses abound on how to avoid polluting the river. 

A somewhat centralised approach is advocated for monitoring the pollutant load due to immersion which is next to impossible in the decentralised model. For instance consider the approach that Kolkata Municipal Corporation has been following. Most of the decorative items including flowers etc. are not dumped in the river but put in a vat placed for that purpose. The idols are immersed in a captive area of the river and cranes then move in to take away the idol debris thereby minimising the pollutant load. This is certainly an approach worth emulating.

So before a potent brew of heavy metals and toxic ingredients percolates Delhi’s ground water table let us adopt sensible measures and proven practices to stop this insidious problem from becoming a full blown crisis. Our gods and goddesses too will be pleased!

Sanjib Pohit is Professor at NCAER. The views expressed are personal

Smog does affect health but there is no data on the problem’s magnitude

While we do not question the basic premise that air pollution has adverse health impact we are sceptical about the figures quoted and the methodology adopted in estimating the cost.

In the past three years several studies have linked air pollution with health effects. For instance the State of Global Air 2019 published by the Health Effects Institute (HEI) claimed exposure to outdoor and indoor air pollution contributed to over 1.2 million deaths in India in 2017. Another study conducted by researchers at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and partner institutes peg the economic cost of exposure to air pollution from crop residue burning at $35 billion or nearly Rs. 2.35 lakh crore annually for the three north Indian states of Punjab Haryana and Delhi.

While we do not question the basic premise that air pollution has adverse health impact we are sceptical about the figures quoted and the methodology adopted in estimating the cost.

First piece of the jigsaw of such studies relates to the availability of data on measurement of air pollution levels notably mean concentrate on particulate matter (PM)10 (particles smaller than 10 microns) and PM2.5 (particles smaller than 2.5 microns about 25 to 100 times thinner than a human hair). The availability of data has no doubt improved significantly in recent years with an increase in number of nodes where such data is now being collected 24×7. However while the discourse on air pollution in the Indian context centres around PM10 and PM2.5 there are other pollutants in the atmosphere which are more harmful — nanoparticles for example. Soil erosion dust storms burning of unprocessed fuel and industrial and mechanical processes also cause air pollution. The lack of data on these implies that research excludes an important aspect of the health implications of pollution. This may mean that the total economic cost of exposure can in fact be higher than what is reported. But is it really so?

This brings to us the second piece of the puzzle: Estimating the impact of pollution on health. There can be two ways to understand it. For instance IFPRI has used India’s fourth District Level Health Survey data to correlate pollution with health impact. However it is a general health survey and does not cover all diseases linked to air pollution. Moreover the information is collated from households. Resource constraints preclude any attempt to collect clinical and biometric information of individuals exposed to air pollution. Health assessment based on respondents’ perceptions may not provide a real picture unless a medical examination on the subjects captures the residues of such pollutants in the blood. Only then can the extent and severity of pollution impacts be ascertained.

In India the general approach is to get the cost estimates from developed countries and then deflate the numbers using the purchasing power parity (PPP)conversion approach to arrive at economic costs of pollution. However there could be a major flaw in this approach. For example it overlooks how human immunity develops in polluted and non polluted areas. To completely overlook this fact may lead to an overestimation of pollution’s adverse impacts.

While the severity of the air pollution problem is a fact its magnitude can only be judged when apart from scientists measuring air pollution and social scientists assessing economic values medical practitioners are also involved in collecting clinical and biometric information. It appears that the last part is missing in most studies. Of course given the shortage of doctors in India it would always be costly to involve the medical profession in such studies. But then researchers should acknowledge that they may be off the mark. As of now the true picture remains shrouded in the smog that prevails over our cities.

This article first appeared in the print edition on October 1 2019 under the title ‘Bad air but how bad’. Roy Chowdhury is associate fellow and Sanjib Pohit is professor at National Council of Applied Economic Research New Delhi. Views expressed here are personal

Published in: The Indian Express November 14 2019

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