UBI good, but likely to be too costly to implement, says Martin Wolf

Remember only the US Fed is raising the rates. The Europeans Japanese and the Chinese are not doing that. 

While there are several critics of the farm debt waiver it has found a supporter in Martin Wolf chief economics commentator at the Financial Times. In India to deliver the C D Deshmukh Memorial Lecture organised by NCAER he tells Indivjal Dhasmana that any such waiver has to be circumstance-specific. Edited excerpts: At the time of demonetisation you wrote that its net effect could be gauged only later. Two years down the line what is your assessment? I am not persuaded at the moment that it has done any good. It does not seem to me that the shock has given enormous … 

Health inflation: Should India also subsidise pharmacy costs?

The NCAER-India International Centre Mid-Year Review 2019-20 had pointed out that miscellaneous inflation was the biggest contributor to overall retail inflation in the first half (H1) of 2019-20 (40.7%). Within miscellaneous items the health sub-category had the largest weight (25.1% and 16.3% in rural and urban areas respectively). Health inflation contributed 40.2% and 26.9% of miscellaneous inflation in rural and urban areas respectively. The component health has a weightage of 5.89% in the overall CPI; 6.83% in rural CPI and 4.81% in urban CPI.

Health inflation is important because expenditure on health comprises a significant part of total household expenditure. According to the National Sample Survey (NSS) 71st and 75th rounds it was 12.49% and 8.14% in 2014 and 2017-18 respectively. The share of household health expenditure showed a downward trend between the two periods. Within health expenditure the share of in-patient (lives in hospital while in treatment) was 36.7% and out-patient (seeks medical treatment without staying in hospital) health expenditure was 63.3% in 2017-18. This ratio was similar to 2014. Rural health inflation had averaged around 5.2% between April 2015 and September 2018 but experienced a steep rise in October 2018 (7.8%). It averaged around 9.3% between the period October 2018 and September 2019 before falling sharply to 6.1% in October 2019. The increase in rural health inflation for only one year is quite puzzling and demands more research.

The overall health inflation mirrored the movements of rural health inflation. Looking at the components of overall CPI health inflation we find that hospital and nursing home charges and medicines (non-institutional) experienced the highest rates of inflation in 2018-19 H2.

Plus the 75th round of NSO data shows that medicines formed 70.3% of medical expenditure in non-hospitalisation cases. Out-patient health expenditure forms the majority of health expenditure and within that expenditure on medicine forms the lion’s share of expenditure. Further given the continued rise in inflation of that component shouldn’t medical insurance programmes also cover medicine costs in cases of out-patient healthcare?

The Medicaid programme in the US provides coverage for outpatient prescription drugs to all categorically eligible individuals and most other enrollees within their state Medicaid programmes. Australia has the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. Since the second component of the flagship scheme of the central government Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana Ayushman Bharat covers hospitalisation costs perhaps state governments may envisage subsidising pharmacy costs of out-patient treatment via direct benefits transfer for a targeted population.

Bornali Bhandari is Senior Fellow and Ajaya Sahu is senior research analyst at NCAER. Views are personal.

It’s not just about the ranking

The methodology to rank different entities be it the grading of States districts or blocks has several inherent weaknesses. A minimum standard for each parameter/indicator and rank should be given only if one scores above the minimum standard

In recent times it has become almost customary to rank different entities across various indicators. Of course this trend started with the World Bank attempting to rank countries by their score of doing business.

The original idea was to provide an objective measure of business regulations and their enforcement for 190 nations across the world. Given the diverse range of countries most indicators are assessed at the elementary level so that data of countries be collected.

Many countries including India lay credence to these type of ranks such as the doing business survey. Furthermore India is at the forefront of this ranking challenge as it uses a similar methodology to rank its States districts and cities among others. The focus remains on a variety of issues. 

To usher competitive spirit  across various Indian States the Union Government went a step ahead to provide additional finance to States districts and cities who were the front runners in this rat race. Some States too have been following this approach to rank their districts and blocks. Not to be left behind international organisations as well as some private think-tanks are also in this race of ranking Indian States districts blocks and cities. 

However these methodologies have several inherent weaknesses that are rarely ever considered. Faultlines remain important since higher rankings by these indicators draw additional funds from the Union Government.

First ranking on the number scale instead of giving importance to grade is an inherent problem. This results in high degree of fluctuations when the index is measured on an annual basis. Generally most of these indices consist of unweighted/weighted average of scores on several measurable parameters. Typically some of them are based on survey feedback of stakeholders’ perception in respect to governance issues and role played by various administrative departments of the Government at national/sub-national levels. 

The ranking of an economically developed State may decline in the current year as compared to the last year on some measure not because it functioned poorly but for the reason that it had no further realistic scope of improvement as it had achieved all goals. Furthermore when respondents are asked to rank their performance with respect to perception feedback they would be non-committal or ambivalent.

On the other hand an economically backward State has ample scope of improvement and small/medium actions by policy-makers with respect to perception of the survey are rewarded by respondents with high score.

Second there are inherent statistical weaknesses that relate to stakeholders’ perception survey in the index measure as most of them have weak statistical foundation with respect to sampling the frame and the size of sampling units. Many of these are not drawn randomly and thus inference drawn from these surveys needs to be taken with caution.

Third ranking of States blocks and cities without ascribing to any minimal standard is an inherent futile exercise. It is similar to ranking students in a class where all may have failed to secure the pass marks.

In all these ranking exercises there is no minimum standard for any indicator/parameters that one has to secure at least to be considered for ranking. As a result these type of ranking exercises give a wrong picture.

For illustrative purpose let us consider the smart cities ranking by the Union Government.

Undoubtedly the so-called smart city project should have a smart garbage disposal that consists of at least the following: (a) the city should be free from VAT for garbage so as to restrict accessibility of birds animals rainwater and thereby minimise the spread of vector-borne diseases and bad odour (b) segregation of household waste should be done for better processing of garbage and value addition from the same (c) odourless transportation from the VAT to the dumping station in a cost efficient way (d) extend the life span of the dumping site by way of reduction of volume of waste and provide hygienic environment to the citizens. 

The last point is extremely important since all Indian cities find it difficult to locate sites to dump the garbage due to pressures on land and protests from citizens residing in nearby areas. Negative externalities associated with the dumping sites are far too many. 

Sadly none of the so-called smart cities fulfil the above mentioned criteria with respect to the disposal of waste. The overflowing garbage VAT exists in most smart cities including the national capital city. Most of these cities have not adopted smart garbage solutions like the modern compactor method to make the city free of VAT.

By contrast star rating of electrical instruments conceived by the Bureau of Energy Efficiency is a right approach since the standard in saving electricity is at the core of this concept.

In sum one needs to set minimum standard for each parameter/indicator and ranks should be given only if one scores above the minimum standard. Furthermore it is advisable to give grade (A/B/C) instead of ranks (1/2/3) so as to minimise year to year fluctuations.

(The writer is Professor National Council of Applied Economic Research

Air pollution myths and realities

For long debates on air pollution have centred around PM2.5 and PM10 levels even as an invisible killer remains unnoticed

Another winter has arrived and the discourse has invariably turned towards air pollution especially in the metro cities. Of course the centre of discussion is New Delhi  which is considered to be a hotspot for air pollution. The situation is precarious because it is home to a large population of the diplomatic community and many foreigners who remain more concerned about bad air days than Indians in general because the most serious effect it has on an individual’s health.

Many diplomatic corps now consider Delhi’s pollution crisis as the new capital punishment. Increasingly we come across new studies that estimate the number of Indians who would die early due to air pollution or those who will have to set aside a large part of their budget for health to take care of the diseases arising due to the foul air we breathe. The same is true for increased Government health expenditure — the reimbursement cost under Ayushman Bharat or treatment cost in Government hospitals will be very high due to pollution-related diseases.

In hindsight it must be mentioned that the entire discourse on air pollution in the Indian context centres around the mean concentration of particulate matter (PM)10 (particles smaller than 10 microns) and PM2.5 (particles smaller than 2.5 microns about 25 to 100 times thinner than a human hair). This is solely due to the fact that India’s Central Pollution Control Board has the facility to monitor only PM2.5/PM10 pollutants in Delhi or elsewhere. As a result we are probably missing the bull’s eye in respect of measuring air pollution levels. Consequently we are probably underestimating the deleterious effects of air pollution by tonnes.

Let us be clear. There also exists other pollutants in the atmosphere that are more harmful than PM10/PM2.5 but are usually not talked about. These are nanoparticles that are sources of both natural and man-made processes — soil erosion dust storms burning of unprocessed fuel and industrial and mechanical processes. All of these release several million tonnes of nanoparticles in the air that have an adverse affect on one’s health.

While studies have extensively researched on the health impacts of PM2.5 and PM10 exposure evidences on the toxic effects of nanoparticles on human health are insufficient and beyond the scope of a single discipline. The study calls for an interdisciplinary research team of scientists health professionals and epidemiological researchers who must be convinced about the scientific composition transmission and exclusive effects of nanoparticles on human health.

The large surface area and chemically reactive nature of nanoparticles make risk assessment highly uncertain. Inhalation is the most common route through which people get exposed to nanoparticles. Ingestion and dermal contact of engineered nanoparticles are also popular transmission mechanisms. Inhaled particles can enter the blood circulation from where they can be carried to different health organs such as heart kidney and liver. This can give rise to cardiovascular pulmonary diseases and respiratory illnesses.

Evidences show that nanoparticles accumulated in the vascular sites can clot the blood vessels and hence increase the likelihood of a heart attack or a stroke. Occupational exposure to these toxic elements can increase the risk of lung cancer and long-term exposure to higher concentrations of nanoparticles can even lead to deaths. For patients with pre-existing heart or pulmonary conditions the situation can get worse when exposed to elevated particle concentrations. Infant mortality neonatal complications and birth defects are also likely to increase with ever increasing concentrations of matters smaller than 10 µm.

Incidentally while pollution masks are available in the market they provide protection against PM10/PM2.5. The same is not true in the case of pollution from nanoparticles. Moreover with no mechanism available to record the extent of air pollution from nanoparticles the risk arising from the same is now a black box. Thus there is an urgent need for the Government to raise awareness on the dangers of nanoparticles. Monitoring stations must also measure the same. Without quantifiable statistics we may not be able to move ahead in highlighting the dangers of air pollution.

(The writers are Sanjib Pohit Professor and Soumi Roy Chowdhury Associate Fellow at NCAER)

Make it the Indian way: Why the country must adapt to additive technologies

If ‘Make in India’ is to succeed it needs to encompass ‘Make it the Indian Way’. It need not emulate mass production technologies fuelled in Detroit by massive capital investment or in Beijing by cheap labour. We are fortunate to be in a historic moment when the manufacturing sector is about to go through a transformation wrought by disruptive technologies — we have to find a way of making it work in India’s favour rather than against it.

Getting a measure

Industrial 3D printing has begun to transform manufacturing in Western countries. The 3D printing has not yet entered our everyday lexicon and even people who have heard of it view it as a toy technology that geeks play with creating prototypes of robots using small machines that create moulds using materials such as plastic and photosensitive resins. Part of it must be the name whoever heard of serious manufacturing using a printer! Rename this to “additive technology” and think of Ford Motors cutting down its cost of creating a new car prototype from six months and several hundred thousand dollars to four days and $4000 and you begin to see its power.

Traditional manufacturing of mechanical parts involves making a mould and then stamping out parts by thousands every day. The equipment to make these parts and moulds is expensive thus the cost of the first hundred units is high. Per unit costs decline only when they are mass produced. Because of limitations of how this technology works one typically builds many small parts which are later on assembled on an assembly line using unskilled labour or robots to build an entire system. Traditional manufacturing leads to high inventory costs of multiple parts that need to be produced and stored before being assembled. This makes the design phase complex and costly rendering it expensive to redesign to correct initial mistakes or innovate to meet changing consumer needs.

In additive manufacturing the physical object to be built is first designed in software. This design is fed to computerised machines which build that object layer by layer. The technology is suitable for building the entire system in one go with hollow interiors without assembly or interlocked parts. Changing features or tweaking shapes is a simple software change effected in minutes. Retooling of machines is not required and each unit can be customised. By eliminating the need to hold a large inventory of parts set up an assembly line and purchase costly machines adaptive manufacturing reduces capital and space requirements as well as the carbon footprint.

No longer geeky

Additive manufacturing started out as a technology for nerds and geeks trying to build an arm of a robot or a body of a drone in their garages. Rapid progress in technology over the last five years has taken this type of machines from using one nozzle and simple resin materials to multiple nozzles diverse materials and materials with different hardness in the same system. Today it is possible to build an entire shoe including shoelaces in a university laboratory. Tomorrow Adidas and Nike may well start manufacturing them en masse.

Although it began as a quick and cheap way of developing prototypes additive manufacturing has now gone mainstream in developed countries and is beginning to replace traditional manufacturing for many different applications. One recent survey of U.S. manufacturers shows that about 12% have started using additive manufacturing for their products and expectations are that this will result in about 25% of products in the next three-five years. This technology is used to build helmets dental implants medical equipment parts of jet engines and even entire bodies of cars. In some industries the progress is astonishing. Nearly all hearing aid manufacturers now use additive manufacturing.

This technological nirvana carries dangerous implications for developing nations. It decreases reliance on assembly workers and bypasses the global supply chain that has allowed countries like China to become prosperous through export of mass-produced items. This may well lead to the creation of software-based design platforms in the West that distribute work orders to small manufacturing facilities whether located in developed or developing countries but ultimately transfer value creation towards software and design and away from physical manufacturing. This would imply that labour intensive manufacturing exports may be less profitable.

Opportunities in India

Fortunately this manufacturing paradigm has several features that play to the strengths of the Indian ecosystem. First it eliminates large capital outlays. Machines are cheaper inventories can be small and space requirements are not large. Thus jump-starting manufacturing does not face the massive hurdle of large capital requirement and the traditional small and medium enterprises can easily be adapted and retooled towards high technology manufacturing. Second the Indian software industry is well-established and plans to increase connectivity are well under way as part of ‘Digital India’. This would allow for the creation of manufacturing facilities in small towns and foster industrial development outside of major cities. Third it is possible to build products that are better suited for use in harsh environmental conditions. Products that required assembly of fewer parts also implies that they may be better able to withstand dust and moisture prevalent in our tropical environment and be more durable. Fourth in a country where use-and-throw is an anathema maintaining old products is far easier because parts can be manufactured as needed and product life-cycles can be expanded. Finally maintaining uniform product quality is far easier because the entire system is built at the same time and assembly is not required.

For countries that have already invested in heavy manufacturing this shift to adaptive manufacturing will be difficult and expensive. For new entrants it is easier to leapfrog. The “Make it the Indian Way” approach we advocate will need public-private partnership and multi-pronged efforts. On the one hand we need to accelerate research at our premier engineering schools on manufacturing machines and methods and encourage formation of product design centres so that the products built suit the Indian environment and consumers. We also would need government support to provide incentives for distributed manufacturing in smaller towns and for the IT industry to work on creating platforms and marketplaces that connect consumer demands product designers and manufacturers in a seamless way.

However a combination of science and art with a pinch of Indian entrepreneurship thrown in will allow us to develop a manufacturing ecosystem that will not only allow India to compete with global manufacturing it will also create products that are uniquely suited to Indian conditions. The Industrial revolution somehow bypassed India but we have a unique opportunity to catch the wave of the manufacturing revolution if we can learn to surf.

Hemant Kanakia is an electrical engineer and high-technology investor. Sonalde Desai is Professor of Sociology at the University of Maryland and Senior Fellow NCAER. The views expressed are personal

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