Agricultural Outlook Report – Kharif 2016

The Report states that the current global agricultural outlook scenario characterized by abundant supplies of cereals and soybean meal, tightening of vegetable oil supplies and an overall increase in pulse production in most major exporting countries present a mixed fortune for India, which used to be a major exporter of wheat, maize, sugar, and soybean meal and is a large importer of vegetable oils and pulses.

Janani Suraksha Yojana pays dividends: Study

A new study brings in first conclusive evidence of the role played by Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY) in reducing ‘socioeconomic disparities’ existing in maternal care.

 

The JSY was launched in 2005 as part of the National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) to improve maternal and neonatal health by promotion of institutional deliveries (childbirth in hospitals).

 

According to a working paper by Ruchi Jain (NCAER) Sonalde Desai (NCAER University of Maryland) and Reeve Vanneman (University of Maryland) “JSY has led to an enhancement in the utilisation of health services among all groups especially among the poorer and underserved sections in the rural areas thereby reducing the prevalent disparities in maternal care.”

 

While previous studies had shown the impact of JSY in reducing maternal mortality it was not known if it had reduced socioeconomic inequalities — differences in access to maternal care between individual people of higher or lower socioeconomic status.

 

The study was conducted using data from two rounds of the India Human Development Survey (IHDS) — conducted in 2004-05 and 2011-12. The IHDS data serves two advantages in this case. First round 1 of IHDS was conducted in 2004-05 when the JSY was not in place and round two was conducted six years after the launch providing a before-after scenario for comparison. Secondly the IHDS is a longitudinal data set — same households were interviewed in both rounds which allows to examine changes in maternal care patterns.

 

Three key services of maternal care were used for the analysis: full antenatal care (full ANC) safe delivery and postnatal care.

 

There were three major findings. First the increase in utilisation of all three maternal healthcare services between the two rounds was remarkably higher among illiterate or less educated and poor women.

 

“This documents the effect of the JSY scheme where women with little or no education were motivated to utilise maternal health care services” the study says.

 

Reducing disparities 

 

Secondly the usage of all three maternal healthcare services by the OBC Dalit Adivasis and Muslim women increased between the surveys.

 

The study found that after the implementation of the JSY “there was generally a narrowing of the gap between the less educated and more educated women and between the poorer and richer women.”

 

It was found in the survey that women in their early twenties were more likely to avail of each of the three maternal health care services as compared to their older women. Also the incidence of women availing maternal healthcare services decreases with the increase in the number of children they have delivered.

 

Note that inequality in access to maternal care persists. The study however notes that the gap in access to healthcare between the marginalised group of women and those who are financially better-off has declined since the advent of the JSY program.

 

High incidence of maternal mortality continue to plague India. As per the latest Lancet series on maternal health India accounted for 15 per cent of the total maternal deaths in the world in 2015 — second only to Nigeria — with 45000 women dying during pregnancy or childbirth.

 

Published in: The Hindu  October 10 2016

Laadli races up literacy ladder in Himachal

The lower social stratification in Himachal Pradesh facilitates a smoother implementation of social programmes than in other states. The state government’s campaign to promote “schooling as an essential part of every child’s upbringing” has made literacy an accepted norm.

A cherubic young girl carrying a heavy schoolbag on her drooping shoulders cheerfully negotiating the mountainous terrain with the hope of a bright future writ large on her face — this is the most endearing image of the schoolgoing girl child in the hill state of Himachal Pradesh. Through what is often described as “an ongoing schooling revolution” the state has literally taken girls’ education on a higher plane as it were.This is ratified by data from the India Human Development Survey (IHDS) the first large panel survey in India conducted jointly by the National Council of Applied Economic Research and University of Maryland for the same households at two points in time viz. 2004­-05 and 2011-­12.

According to the IHDS­II data the enrolment figure for girls aged 5­15 years in Himachal Pradesh was as high as 98.01 per cent in 2011­-12 going up from 92.02 per cent in 2004­05. Simultaneously the drop­out rate declined from 7.98 per cent in 2004­-05 to only 1.99 per cent in 2011-­12 indicating that most girls enrolled in primary school were continuing their education.

Both the Public Report on Basic Education (PROBE Revisited: A Report on Elementary Education in India 2011) and the Census 2011 figures also show that Himachal Pradesh has fared much better in the field of primary education than some of its more prosperous neighbours. The PROBE surveys conducted in 1996 and 2006 respectively studied 48 villages in seven districts in Himachal Pradesh and interviewed 154 households. It was found that of the 285 children aged 6­12 years in the sample households only five had never been to school and the proportion of girls attending school was as high as 95 per cent which is very close to the IHDS figure. The Census of 2011 also calls the “schooling revolution” in Himachal Pradesh “even more impressive than that of Kerala” which has traditionally led the nation in literacy rates.

Reasons for the success

The state’s success in augmenting education levels for girls can be attributed to various factors most importantly its cultural background. The lower social stratification in the state facilitates a smoother implementation of social programmes than in other states. The state government’s campaign to promote “schooling as an essential part of every child’s upbringing” has made literacy an accepted norm. Himachal Pradesh is the only state in the country to spend Rs 1.03 per capita on education which is almost twice the national average. 

Interestingly the educational expansion in the state has been achieved largely by government schools. The IHDSII records that 80.78 per cent of the girls aged 5­15 years were enrolled in government schools in 2011.The state places persistent emphasis on investing in rural infrastructure especially roads and government­run village schools even in remote tribal districts like Kinnaur Lahaul and Spitithus reducing inter­regional and genderbased disparities in educational levels.

Another factor that has pushed up primary level female literacy figures is parental interest combined with high levels of adult education in the state. The IHDS panel data (Table 1) shows a significant rise in both enrolment figures for girls aged 5­15 years and adult education levels in their households from 2004-­05 to 2011­12. The IHDS­II found that in these households only 7.15 per cent of the adult members were illiterate while the remaining 92.85 per cent had acquired various levels of education in sharp contrast to the all­India illiteracy figure of 24.33 per cent in 2011­-12. The PROBE survey also shows that 90 per cent of the parents in the state as opposed to 80 per cent in other PROBE states support compulsory primary education and 100 per cent said that they wanted their children to pursue higher education. 

The IHDS and PROBE data are corroborated by the Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) based on an annual survey being conducted by Pratham since 2005 to evaluate the impact of educational programmes in the country. The ASER 2014 figures show that primary school children in Himachal Pradesh exhibit significantly high degrees of learning as compared to their counterparts at the all India level.

A refreshing finding of most surveys is the virtual lack of any gender bias among parents in the state. As many as 67 per cent of them as compared to merely 40 per cent in the other PROBE states stressed the need to educate their daughters so that they can benefit from “improved employment and income opportunities”. 

Thus Himachal Pradesh has done a lot of things right where educating the laadli is concerned. If the high primary level literacy figures in the state are maintained the cherubic Himachali girl with her overloaded schoolbag could soon become a role model for laadlis in other states egging them on to pick up books and march towards a future filled with limitless hope and aspirations filled with limitless hope and aspirations.

Anupma Mehta is Consultant Editor at the National Council of Applied Economic Research. The views expressed are personal.

NCAER Companies’ business confidence index grows 2.2% in June quarter

Economic think-tank NCAER’s business confidence index (BCI) registered a sequential increase of 2.2 per cent in June quarter of 2016-17 mainly driven by improvement in perception about economic conditions and financial position of firms…

The think-tank said BCI is developed on the basis of responses to four questions. Two of these are devoted to macro factors and the other two to micro.

Economic think-tank NCAER’s business confidence index (BCI) registered a sequential increase of 2.2 per cent in June quarter of 2016-17 mainly driven by improvement in perception about economic conditions and financial position of firms in the next six months.

The increase in BCI was helped by improvement in sentiment in two out of its four components the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) said while sharing details of its 97th round of its Business Expectations Survey (BES).

BES tracks the business sentiment of over 500 Indian companies to compute the composite BCI.

The think-tank said BCI is developed on the basis of responses to four questions. Two of these are devoted to macro factors and the other two to micro. “BCI was higher mainly due to improvement in perceptions that overall economic conditions will be better in the next six months and financial position of firms will improve in the next six months” it said.

Sentiment about the component — present investment climate is positive — remained largely unchanged. However perceptions on the metrics — capacity utilisation is close to or above optimal level — showed a decline.

“It was seen that firms were more optimistic about future economic conditions than about the present economic situation” NCAER said.

It further said all enterprise groups barring those with an annual turnover of less than Rs 1 crore show an increase or no change in BCI between April and July 2016.

BCI of firms with an annual turnover of less than Rs 1 crore declined by 9.1 per cent. Firms with annual turnover of Rs 100-500 crore Rs 1-10 crore and more than Rs 500 crore registered a significant rise in BCI whereas firms with an annual turnover of Rs 10-100 crore showed no change between the two rounds.

The maximum growth of 8.1 per cent was witnessed in the case of firms with an annual turnover of Rs 100-500 crore.

Companies business confidence index grows 2.2% in June quarter

Economic think-tank NCAER’s business confidence index (BCI) registered a sequential increase of 2.2 per cent in June quarter of 2016-17 mainly driven by improvement in perception about economic conditions and financial position of firms in the next six months.

 

The increase in BCI was helped by improvement in sentiment in two out of its four components the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) said while sharing details of its 97th round of its Business Expectations Survey (BES).

 

BES tracks the business sentiment of over 500 Indian companies to compute the composite BCI.

 

The think-tank said BCI is developed on the basis of responses to four questions. Two of these are devoted to macro factors and the other two to micro.

“BCI was higher mainly due to improvement in perceptions that overall economic conditions will be better in the next six months and financial position of firms will improve in the next six months” it said.

Sentiment about the component — present investment climate is positive — remained largely unchanged. However perceptions on the metrics — capacity utilisation is close to or above optimal level — showed a decline.

“It was seen that firms were more optimistic about future economic conditions than about the present economic situation” NCAER said.

It further said all enterprise groups barring those with an annual turnover of less than Rs 1 crore show an increase or no change in BCI between April and July 2016.

BCI of firms with an annual turnover of less than Rs 1 crore declined by 9.1 per cent. Firms with annual turnover of Rs 100-500 crore Rs 1-10 crore and more than Rs 500 crore registered a significant rise in BCI whereas firms with an annual turnover of Rs 10-100 crore showed no change between the two rounds.

The maximum growth of 8.1 per cent was witnessed in the case of firms with an annual turnover of Rs 100-500 crore.

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