Agricultural Outlook and Situation Analysis Reports: Rabi Outlook Report January 2016

The Agriculture and allied sector GVA growth in the second quarter of FY 2015-16 is estimated at 2.2 per cent compared to 1.9 per cent in first quarter. The exceptionally dry start to the rabi season has affected sowing in all major rabi crops such as wheat, gram and rapeseed/mustard. Overall, the current outlook for agricultural growth in 2015-16 appears moderate at best at this juncture and is expected to remain similar to the 2014-15 growth rate of 0.2 per cent. The findings of this report are based on a comprehensive assessment of farm input prices and availability, monsoon rainfall, market demand conditions and government policies impacting this year’s rabi and kharif crop production. Wheat production in marketing year 2016-17 is expected to be lower at 85 million tons as compared to the already poor 2015 production of 88.9 million tons due to poor weather, and wheat exports are likely to remain negligible. The 2015-16 rabi rice production is expected to be somewhat lower than the 2014-15 production due to poor post-monsoon rains and lower water levels in reservoirs. Rabi rice exports are forecast to decline to 9.0 million tonnes from 11.8 million tons in marketing year 2014-15.

Kelkar panel suggests stricter regulatory oversight of airports

The Vijay Kelkar Committee has recommended stricter regulatory oversight of airports and cooperation amongst customs immigration and other government agencies with a view to improving service delivery.

Airports at Mumbai Delhi Bengaluru and Hyderabad have been developed under the public-private partnership (PPP) route. In its draft civil aviation policy too the government had said it would encourage further development of airports through the PPP mode.

However the development has led to an increase in user charges for airlines and passengers and there has been a call for stricter regulation.

The Kelkar Committee has said regulatory supervision of all airports should be strengthened. It has suggested a single body for regulation of various services at airports.

It has said government agencies such as the Bureau of Immigration Customs and the security services must work together. “A provision may be made to ensure all agencies work towards a unified objective of service delivery” it said.

In what will cheer project developers the committee has said airport concession agreement could be drafted to include commercial parameters related to the airport such as return on equity treatment of land for non airport activities etc. These would help in reducing regulatory uncertainties and disputes in tariff calculation.

Currently airports and airlines are litigating against tariff orders passed by the Airports Economic Regulatory Authority over the methodology and approved charges. For example there are differences on how to treat deposits earned from leasing airport land while calculating tariff. While the airports feel this should be included toward project equity the same has been disallowed by the regulator. Also the airports are demanding a higher return on equity than the one allowed by the regulator.

The panel has said the PPP framework should be selectively utilised in airport development.

For clean air, use market-based tools

Administrative fiat is certainly not the best option in the absence of accurate data on vehicular pollution

During the late 1990s the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) worked with six countries in comprehensive projects to identify the impact of liberalisation on environmental resources and the use of economic instruments to sustainably manage these impacts.

The India-specific project focused on motor vehicle emissions and air pollution in Delhi and the relationship with the SAP.

The UNEP believed that any negative impact of the structural adjustment programme (SAP) on the environment could be minimised by integrating environmental considerations. The agenda of economic reforms in many developing countries during the 1980s and 1990s was aided by structural adjustment loans from the World Bank; there was a great deal of uniformity in SAP which set the course of economic reforms in developing economics.

Relevance of study

The study published in 1999 focused on market-based instruments (MBIs) in abating vehicular pollution rather than the conventional command and control (CAC) approach. How can this study carried out in 1999 be relevant today?

At that time Delhi had an acute air pollution problem associated with the use of energy in the transport sector.

It was among the 12 cities mentioned in the 1992 WHO/UNEP report on urban air pollution in the world’s megacities.

It was estimated that around two-thirds of air pollution was caused by motor vehicles. The Central Pollution Control Board had estimated that roughly 2000 metric tonnes of air pollutants were emitted every day by motor vehicles in 1996. This accounted for 67 per cent of total air pollution.

Remember Delhi did not have CNG buses then the first leg of metro rail (55-60 km) that was expected to reduce vehicular pollution by about 200 metric tonnes per day was yet to be operational and the sub-optimal mix of petrol and lubricating oil for two-wheelers had further aggravated the problem.

The UNEP report had identified that the use of CNG reduces CO and NOX emissions by 20 per cent and particulate emissions by about 90 per cent. The research agency that carried out the study for the UNEP was NCAER. In 1998 vehicular emissions in Delhi in tonnes per day was estimated at around 2300; the report mentioned that buses were responsible for 9.5 per cent of total emissions two-wheelers 14.3 per cent three-wheelers 7.9 per cent cars 21.8 per cent commercial vehicles 44.9 per cent and taxis around 1.4 per cent.

The then Delhi government rightly estimated that asking all buses and three-wheelers to switch to CNG was the solution.

Fiat measures

We do not have a clear picture of the current situation: the emission factor by vehicle type (gram per km) the average distance travelled per day by vehicle type number of vehicles by types and so on. These are basic inputs to arrive at the proportion of total emissions caused by vehicle types.

Without such computations and assuming that cars and trucks are the major culprits various CAC measures are being suggested:

1. Drive even number plate fixed cars on even dates and odd number plate fixed cars on odd dates.

2. Allow diesel commercial vehicles to enter city only at night.

3. Provide exemption for cars beyond 8 pm and before 8 am.

4. Ban the registration of new diesel cars.

What may work

Market-based instruments (MBIs) that could achieve the objective of mitigating air pollution without inconveniencing the public. Some of these measures could include

1. Restriction of new diesel vehicles through price disincentives such as levy of Environmental Excise Duty (EED)

2. Incentive to scrap old diesel vehicles such as exemption from levy of EED if the new vehicle replaces an old one.

3. Instead of the odd-numbered number plates on odd dates why not levy “permits” for a fee for plying on all days of the month with a higher “permit fee” for luxury cars vis-à-vis standard cars.

4. MBI revenues could be used to construct bypasses so that commercial vehicles don’t need to drive through the city.

Instead of restricting the plying of commercial vehicles at during nights (that would not diminish air pollution) such MBIs can mitigate air pollution without inconveniencing the public.

The writer is a senior consultant with NCAER. The views are personal

Over 1.20 crore bogus rations cards deleted during the last three years

New Delhi:  An evaluation study on functioning of Targeted Public Distribution System (TPDS) in six selected States namely Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Karnataka Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal was awarded to the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) in March 2014 and final report was accepted in the Department in November 2015.  Based on 2011 census and the family size estimates projected over 2015 the study has estimated the number of excess ration cards made in the six target States as per details given below:

 

 

This information was given by the Minister of Consumer Affairs Food and Public Distribution Shri Ram Vilas Paswan in a written reply in Lok Sabha today.

 

The Minister said that detection and deletion of fake cards does not mean reduction in allocation and savings in subsidy but results in selection of deserving beneficiaries and issuance of ration cards to them leading to better targeting of subsidy.

 

He said that with an aim to strengthen the TPDS and to curb diversion/leakage a Nine Point Action Plan was evolved in July 2006 and forwarded to State/UT Governments for implementation by them.  The various points of action included undertaking of campaign by State Governments for review of Below Poverty Line (BPL) / Antyodaya Anna Yojana (AAY) lists to eliminate ghost ration cards.

 

He added that further in terms of the PDS (Control) Order 2001 dated 31.08.2001 State/UT Governments are to review the lists of BPL and AAY families every year for the purpose of deletion of ineligible families and inclusion of eligible families. The exercise of deletion of bogus/ineligible cards and inclusion of eligible families is a continuous process and State Governments are to periodically carry out the same.  The TPDS (Control) Order 2015 notified on 20.03.2015 also calls for all the necessary action to be taken by State/UT Governments for review of list of beneficiaries and deletion of bogus /ineligible ration cards.

 

The Minister said that as a result of implementation of Nine Point Action Plan since July 2006 30 State/UT Governments have reported up to 30.06.2015 deletion of 494.50 lakhs bogus / ineligible ration cards.

 

He said that in a continuous endeavour to strengthen and streamline TPDS the Government has initiated implementation of a plan scheme on ‘End-to-end Computerisation of TPDS Operations’ during the 12th Five Year Plan (2012-17) to ensure transparency and check leakages in the TPDS system.  Under the scheme financial assistance is being provided to States/UTs on cost sharing basis. The cost is being shared on 90:10 basis with North East States and on 50:50 basis with other States/UTs.  Under this scheme as per reports received as on 31.10.2015 ration card data digitization has been done in 29 States/UTs ration card data is available on Web Portal in 27 States/UTs Online allocation is being done in 16 States/UTs supply-chain management in 8 States/UTs Transparency Portal set up in 27 States/UTs online Grievance Redressal Mechanism in 26 and toll free helpline number has been set up in 32 States/UTs.

 

He added that as part of beneficiary data digitization States/UTs have been requested to seed the Aadhaar numbers wherever available so as to weed out the ineligible/bogus/duplicate beneficiaries. As part of Fair Price Shop (FPS) automation at FPS use of Aadhaar will ensure proper identification of beneficiaries and distribution of foodgrains only to the intended beneficiaries thereby reducing leakage / diversion etc.

 

To curb leakages further under the National Food Security Act 2013 (NFSA) inter alia States/UTs have been asked to either do cash transfer of food subsidy under Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) or install electronic Point of Sale Device (ePoS) at the FPSs.

 

The number of bogus/ineligible rations cards deleted by the State/UT for the last three years and current year

 

 

 

C’Garh Among Six States Found With Excessration Cards

Chhattisgarh is among six States in the country where excess ration cards were distributed as per an evaluation study conducted by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) the Central Government has informed.

The final report of the study on functioning of ‘Targetted Public Distribution System’ (TPDS) in six selected states which was conducted in March 2014 was accepted in the Union Ministry of Consumer Affairs Food and Public Distribution in November 2015 it stated.

Based on 2011 census and the family size estimates projected over 2015 the study has estimated the number of excess ration cards made in the six target States with the number of excess cards as follows—Bihar (33.92 lakh) Chhattisgarh (10.84 lakh) Karnataka ( 2.15 lakh) Uttar Pradesh (98.39 lakh) West Bengal (19.39 lakh) and Assam (not specified).

In Chhattisgarh a total of 94209 bogus/ineligible rations cards were deleted by the State Government during the last three years including the current year it stated.

In terms of the PDS (Control) Order 2001 dated August 31 2001 the states and Union territories are to review the lists of BPL and AAY families every year for the purpose of deletion of ineligible families and inclusion of eligible families. The exercise of deletion of bogus/ineligible cards and inclusion of eligible families is a continuous process and State Governments are to periodically carry out the same.

The TPDS (Control) Order 2015 notified on March 20 2015 also calls for all the necessary action to be taken by states and Union Territories for review of list of beneficiaries and deletion of bogus /ineligible ration cards.

To curb leakages further under the National Food Security Act 2013 (NFSA) inter alia states and Union Territories have been asked to either do cash transfer of food subsidy under Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) or install electronic Point of Sale Device (ePoS) at the Fair Price Shops  (FPSs).

Notably Chhattisgarh has achieved 100 per cent digitisation of the Public Distribution System (PDS) beneficiaries database.

There are 23 other States in the country which have also achieved 100 per cent digitisation of the PDS database officials stated.

Moreover the Chhattisgarh Government is now also preparing a plan to use Aadhaar cards to identify Public Distribution System (PDS) beneficiaries.

It has prepared a comprehensive action plan for ensuring total transparency in the preparation of ration cards besides evolving a mechanism for error-free identity of Public Distribution System (PDS) beneficiaries.

Under the action plan the mobile bank account and Aadhaar numbers of the beneficiaries are being collected.

Food Civil Supply and Consumer Protection Minister Punnulal Mohle had stated earlier that the State Government has also made a provision of `4700 crore for implementation of ‘Chief Minister Food and Nutrition Security scheme’ in the State Budget 2015-16.

The Government had made a provision of `1.75 crore in the form of extension of ‘Core PDS’ for its ‘Meri Marzi Scheme.’

Chhattisgarh’s Public Distribution System (PDS) model has gram panchayats co-operative societies and women’s self-help groups (SHGs) operating the fair price shops officials stated.

About 90 per cent of the masses are covered under Food and Nutrition Security Act was implemented in 2013 officials stated.

Chhattisgarh’s PDS under Antyodaya and Priority families schemes provides 35 kg foodgrains at `1 per kilogram. Since June 2014 single member category ration card-holders under destitute segment  are provided 10 kg foodgrains free of cost.

Notably Chhattisgarh State Food Civil Supplies and Consumer Protection Minister Punnulal Mohle had called upon the Central Government to computerise the ration shops under the Public Distribution System (PDS) while addressing the State Food Ministers’ National Conference in New Delhi on July 7 this year.

He had urged the Central Government to provide two-kg ‘Daal’ (pulses) at `10 per kg to the Antyodaya and Priority and below poverty card-holders under the National Food Security Act .

Union Food Civil Supplies and Consumer Affairs Minister Ramvilas Paswan and Union Agriculture Minister Radhamohan Singh were also present at the meeting.

Mohle said that the Central Government provided subsidised ‘Daal’ underthe Public Distribution System till 2012 and later it was stopped.

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