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Agricultural Outlook and Situation Analysis Reports: Quarterly Agricultural Outlook Report January-March 2014

The nature of monsoon in terms of amount of rainfall received during the months of June-September and distribution of rainfall across regions of the country and over the four month period remains the most important determinant of annual agricultural harvest in the country. This year, there has been a significant deficiency in rainfall received in June. The present report provides a review of the developments in the food commodity sectors, covering both domestic and international markets for the period January-March 2014 and available data upto June 2014.

Cereal Indiscretions: Sonalde Desai

Malnutrition remains one of the biggest challenges facing India. In the last large survey the National Family Health Survey of 2005-06 about 42 per cent children under the age of five were underweight. Economic growth has failed to redress this problem. Recently released estimates from the District Level Health Survey for selected states continue to paint a dismal picture.

In the best performing states like Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh the proportion of children who are underweight declined by 7 to 8 percentage points between 2005-06 and 2012; in the worst —  Maharashtra and West Bengal — there is virtually no improvement. At this rate it is unlikely that we can achieve the Millennium Development Goal of 28 per cent children being underweight by 2015. Not only is this a blow to India’s core values it has vast economic consequences.

According to a study by the international non-profit Save the Children this cost is expected to be between 1 to 2.5 per cent of the GDP per annum by 2030. In spite of the urgency of the problem the only solution at hand the National Food Security Act (NFSA) 2013 appears inadequate to the task of addressing the problem for a number of reasons.

First the primary focus of the NFSA is to expand access to cheap cereals although dietary composition is as relevant to Indian malnutrition as hunger or caloric deficiency. The NFSA’s focus on hunger is bolstered by the observation that successive rounds of the National Sample Survey (NSS) and the National Nutrition Monitoring Bureau surveys document declining caloric consumption among the Indian population. However as Jean Dreze and Angus Deaton note most of this decline is observed among upper-income groups particularly in rural areas. These groups are increasingly moving away from manual labour and hence may need fewer calories.

But malnutrition is not limited to the poor. The National Family Health Survey shows that although 57 per cent of the children in the households with the lowest levels of wealth are underweight even among the top 40 per cent of households about 30 per cent of the children are underweight. So it is not simply a question of income or access to food grains but rather of the composition of food and dietary diversity. The India Human Development Survey (IHDS) organised by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) and the University of Maryland documents that when households consume a diet of cereals coarse grains pulses milk vegetable fruits and fat the percentage of children who are underweight goes down by about 5 percentage points even when compared to other children from families similar in socio-economic background but with lower dietary diversity.

Second the NFSA does not take into account the unanticipated effects of the expansion of the public distribution system (PDS) which may well result in a reduction in nutritional quality due to its emphasis on cereals. While the proportion of families obtaining food from ration shops has grown from 25 per cent to over 50 per cent between 2004-05 and 2011-12 careful analysis of IHDS data matching households at the same income level using the PDS and not using the PDS shows that PDS use is associated with greater consumption of cereals but lower consumption of fruit and milk. When caloric needs can be met with cheap cereals households may not choose to spend money on a diverse food basket. This concern is validated by an excellent analysis of NSS data by Professor Raghav Gaiha and colleagues in which they document declining dietary diversity between 1993 and 2009.

Third the NFSA relies on existing programmes like the PDS and the Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) whose operation is fraught with inefficiencies and leakages. While much has been written about the leakages in the PDS little attention has been directed to the ICDS programme. By an order of the Supreme Court issued in 2006 this programme was expanded to cover all children instead of just the poor. The IHDS records that only 23 per cent children in 2004-05 received any ICDS benefits compared to 46 per cent in 2011-12 but most of the benefits are limited to immunisation. Among the IHDS children under the age of five only 12 per cent received any food from the ICDS in the month prior to the survey. As many speakers at a recent conference organised by the NCAER IDS Sussex and IDRC Canada noted the ICDS has  tremendous potential for reducing malnutrition and has been quite successful in some areas. However without substantial reorganisation its scope will remain limited.

Fourth the potential agricultural ramifications of the expansion of government procurement of vast quantities of cereals have received little attention in this discussion and it is assumed that the current stocks will be sufficient to meet these needs. But the case of millets offers little reason for this optimism. Although it is a welcome departure for the NFSA to include millets in the PDS little attention is directed towards the challenges of production bottlenecks and storage for millets. Thus at the moment it is unlikely that millets can be a major component of food supplied under the NFSA.

Fifth the NFSA contains no mechanisms for measuring success in reducing malnutrition. Social audits focus on process and not outcomes and do not replace standardised data on malnutrition and food intake. It is amazing that in spite of the staggering incremental costs of the NFSA estimated by Prachi Mishra of the International Monetary Fund at between Rs 44000 and Rs 77000 crore per annum we really have no plans for monitoring its outcome in terms of nutrition statistics. Government data collection on malnutrition is sporadic at best; the last nationwide large survey was done in 2005-06. As of now there is no nationwide data available. If transparent data collection took place predictably every two years immediate course correction could be undertaken.

These observations suggest that if we are serious about eliminating undernutrition we must focus on smarter policy design effective implementation and increased monitoring and accountability. The BJP manifesto calls for addressing malnutrition in mission mode; disappointing statistics from the District Level Health Survey suggest a need for urgent action.

Background Paper on Issues related to Land Economics

This paper focuses on the implications of various land use policies being adopted in India with special reference to Delhi and the NCR region. It examines how far the economic reforms coupled with several changes in land use policies have helped spread development to neighbouring areas surrounding Delhi such as the Central National Capital Region (CNCR) and other National Capital Region (NCR) areas. This has been reviewed in light of how successful these policies have been in overcoming the housing shortage and easing the overburdened infrastructure of Delhi.

India needs a system that directly connects university students to research, Trivellore Raghunathan says

Trivellore Raghunathan professor of biostatistics at the University of Michigan’s School of Public Health who was recently appointed director of the Survey Research Centre at the university’s Institute for Social Research talks to Malini Sen

 

What is the focus of the Survey Research Centre (SRC) at the University of Michigan’s Institute for Social Research (ISR)?

 
The centre is an interdisciplinary team including sociologists psychologists economists epidemiologists and statisticians who are conducting survey research through primary data collection using latest technologies. The centre also has methodologists who are developing new ways of collecting data and performing analysis. The centre also has a strong educational component and offers Masters and PhD degrees at the University of Michigan. It is one of five centres at the Institute for Social Research. Other centres conduct research in political science organizational dynamics and data dissemination to name a few.
As the newly-appointed director of the centre what is your vision for it?
 
As an administrator my job is to make sure that the administrative structure is efficient and least burdensome to faculty staff and students while also enabling them to pursue their intellectual goals. The research that they perform is key to our success. As a researcher I want to continue to develop new methodologies and think methodologies and think of ways to bring the latest methodologies and statistical analysis techniques into practice.
 
Can you share the details of the collaboration that the centre has with National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) in India? 
 
Mary Sue Coleman president of U-M and William Axinn current director of the ISR SRC visited the NCAER in November last year and signed a five-year memorandum of understanding (MoU) to foster collaboration in survey research. The SRC and NCAER are planning a large household survey and currently discussing the use of latest technologies for sampling and data collection activities. I am looking forward to continuing and extending this collaboration in mutually beneficial ways.
 
What are the emerging trends in survey research?
 
The age-old problems of nonresponse and measurement error have become more daunting in survey research. At the same time the availability of data from administrative and other non-survey data sources has increased tremendously. The key is how to use data from survey and non-survey sources to make better inferences for the population of interest. This combined with an unprecedented increase in computing power makes survey research an exciting field for researchers.
 
Do you feel India lacks a research and development environment?
 
When I was in India research was mostly performed in selected institutes such as TIFR IIT ISI and some government-run research institutions. The universities and colleges were primarily responsible for generating a large number of qualified candidates through large classroom teaching and massive examinations. Few individuals at the universities conducted research of their own accord. Over the years the research enterprise has grown in India mostly outside the university system. However there is a complex web of government bureaucracies with confusing jurisdictions overlapping mandates leading to turf wars and internal competitions. India needs a system that directly connects the university students to research along with their learning in the classrooms.
 
What are your research interests?
 
My research focuses on two primary areas: methods for analyzing incomplete data and Bayesian approach. I have used both these areas to address a wide variety of problems such as small area estimation maintaining privacy and confidentiality of survey responses and combining information from multiple data sources. My research goal is to develop statistically rigorous approaches for solving practical problems.
 
Since you have studied in both India and US what in your view is the main difference in the education systems?
 
I received my Bachelors and Masters degrees from the Institute of Science at Nagpur (Nagpur University). People like professor Godambe and professor Shrikhande who have made fundamental contributions to the field of statistics founded the statistics department. Naturally I was fortunate to be taught by people who were their students or had interacted with them. I got excellent training on statistical principles. However the system in the US is quite different. They do get excellent training in statistical principles but the system also al lows PhD students who are generally employed as research assistants to work on practical problems or do research. They are acculturated by faculty members who themselves are conducting cutting-edge research. The faculty members and students are funded by peer-reviewed grants and contracts from the National Institutes of Health National Science Foundation and other private or governmental institutions. Through this entrepreneurial system the US higher education system encourages fundamental thinking about issues in uncharted territories in any field.
 
Is it important for research to be multi-disciplinary collaborative and application oriented for impactful results?
 
To understand the social economic and health issues of the population we need both disciplinary research and the ability to bring multi-disciplinary perspectives into a collaborative environment to solve practical problems. We definitely need an environment that does not create silos and that vigorously promotes open communications across disciplines.

 

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