Macro Track September 2013

Macro: A Tale of Two Districts
The intent in this article is to highlight regional imbalances within India using district-level
data.

Tourism: Tourism Profile of Madhya Pradesh
A major economic activity, highly employment-oriented and a huge source of foreign
exchange, tourism world-wide today has a 10 per cent share in world GDP which is more than
the world military budget put together.


Report: Emerging Growth Scenarios for the Twelfth Five-Year Plan

India’s economic planning has witnessed a paradigm shift since the early 1990s to meet the
new challenges under a more liberal policy environment.

 

Moving from charity to responsibility – The rules for India’s new companies act

Shekhar Shah

India’s rapidly-growing philanthropic community has received a huge shot in the arm with the CSR provisions of the new Companies Act: companies above a certain size must formulate a CSR policy and annually spend at least two per cent of their average net profits over the prior three years. That will translate in 2014 into about 8000 companies spending some Rs 12000-15000 crores ($1.9-2.4 billion) annually – CSR numbers unheard of in India.

On what should companies spend their hard-earned profits?
Surely in a country with some 270 million poor living on less than Rs 30 a day that should be an easy question to answer: spend it all on the poor and the disadvantaged open a school or a health clinic put an extra meal in the hands of a child and do it locally so that the company can see and talk to the beneficiary. Indeed the Act asks companies to give preference in their CSR funding to the local areas in which they operate. The Act also gives guidance in its Schedule VII on what to do: address extreme hunger and poverty promote education support gender equality reduce child mortality improve maternal health combat diseases ensure environmental sustainability enhance vocational skills promote social enterprise and at the end “such other matters as may be prescribed”.

This guidance is appealing in many ways. These are good outcomes to aim for. They are also expenditures that tug at the heart-strings and can be emotionally satisfying connecting the giver and the receiver and on the face of it justifying the giving. And the smiling photographs inspiring quotes and true life-stories in annual reports can help convey the immediacy of a company’s CSR as nothing else can. Add SPARQ codes and on-demand YouTube videos and it is a potent mix. Companies should of course do all this.

Yet it would be a big mistake to restrict CSR funding only to on-the-ground projects. And it would fly in the face of the rising global trend in governments the private sector and donors to ask for the knowledge of actual impact – to know the evidence of what works and what doesn’t and why – before spending large sums of money.

When done without the benefit of knowledge acquired from the careful gathering and analysis of field data and evidence and from piloting evaluation and meta-studies the actual outcomes and sustainability of CSR projects can be highly uncertain. The world is littered with well-intentioned expensive schemes that look about right and spend much money but have little or none of their intended impact. Or worse have unintended and undesirable consequences – such as money or subsidies going mostly to the rich or education that actually reduces employability. The link between more money and outcomes is often not as simple as might appear.

There is much evidence to show that when all other factors are taken into account there is little correlation between merely spending more money on education health and livelihoods and better outcomes for poor people. If that had not been the case India could surely have licked its problems of child malnutrition and poor learning outcomes a long time back. The solution to infant mortality and morbidity may appear to be to increase health expenditures but there is overwhelming evidence that it is poor sanitation and water supply that needs to be tackled first. There is a classic example of de-worming in Africa where de-worming tablets distributed in schools successfully tackled multiple problems of nutrition school attendance and educational attainment. The evidence for such interventions can only come through careful systematic research.

For that reason the new CSR rules should explicitly provide for the funding of such research at institutions with a strong track record of quality and credibility. High-quality applied research related to the activities listed in the Act can show the strengths and weaknesses of public and private development projects examine how the supply of benefits will interact with the demand and preferences of beneficiaries and identify weak links that should be corrected as companies construct their CSR policies.

Allowing companies to use a part of their mandatory CSR spending to fund research and credible independent research institutions would have at least five large benefits for the nation. First the more evidence-based CSR is the greater the bang for the buck that companies can expect. As the size of the economy grows this can be a game-changer.

Second risk-taking and innovation are at the heart of successful companies. If applied to CSR this can strengthen the mind-set of piloting and learning through doing a research-to-policy tradition that in our impatience to scale up remains weak in India compared to other large nations.

Third evidence-based CSR can allow even modest CSR expenditures to produce superior and more sustainable outcomes than much larger public schemes and indeed show the way for such schemes.

Fourth India spends substantially less on its social and policy research institutions than other large economies. Given its heterogeneity and scale it should be spending more. Sound CSR funding can help address that problem.

Finally there is a long-standing Indian tradition of corporate and individual philanthropic support for research institutions that the new CSR Rules should build on rather than ignore. My own institution was established soon after India’s independence with funding not just from the government but at Pandit Nehru’s behest very substantially from J R D Tata and others.

With the increasing demand for evidence outcome-based solutions and the measurement of effectiveness the role of policy research institutions in India must grow. Independent think tanks and research institutions form a valuable link between ideas policies and implementation by supplying the evidence the platform for debate and dialogue and the bridge between governments the private sector citizens and the media in shaping public policy.

Fortunately the just-released draft CSR Rules make it clear that a company may also use its CSR Fund to support independent Indian trusts societies or Section 8 companies with an established track record not just those set up by the company. Many credible Indian research institutions would fall within this definition and many new ones could come up. If the ministry of corporate affairs and its young minister are persuaded that robust research and evidence-based CSR will produce superior results for the India of tomorrow then it should have no problem in accepting Indian companies wanting to invest in the country’s long-term capacity to produce such evidence and analysis.

If India does not invest systematically in such research capacity it will get much less of a bang for the buck from the heightened social responsibility that the new Companies Act asks for. The ministry of corporate affairs owes it to the future of India’s disadvantaged and the millions of its young to allow companies to do so.

Macro Track August 2013

Prices: Asset InflationS

The role of asset price inflation has gained prominence after the financial crisis of 2008 due to the role of sub-prime housing loans in the United States.

Agriculture: Small is Beautiful

The relationship between land size and yield per unit of area cultivated has been intensely debated since the 1960s.

Health: Old and Lonely: Healthcare

The increasing size of the elderly population is a growing concern in almost all developing countries.
NCAER

The best is yet to come: PM at NCAER

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh laid the foundation stone of the National Council for Applied Economic Research’s New Centre here this morning.

Urging the institution to maintain its high standards of economic research, the Prime Minister said, “The best is yet to come.”
“I sincerely hope that this institute will stay faithful to what its founding fathers stood for” Singh added.
Dr Rajendra Prasad laid down the foundation stone of NCAER building in 1959 and Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru inaugurated it in 1961.
Singh was walked through the architectural plans for the New Centre by a specialized team before his address and interacted with eminent economists of the country at NCAER after the ceremony.
The NCAER is an independent non-profit economic research institution that assists the government, civil society and private sector to make policy choices. NCAER has an interdisciplinary team of researchers that generate large-scale primary data and independent analyses at national, state, sectoral, industry and firm levels.
The Council’s current research activities focus on the progress of the country’s economic reform programme and its impact on agriculture, industry and human development.
An emerging focus of the Council is a thorough assessment of major government public expenditure schemes in the social sector, at both state and union levels.

When incomes grow, but jobs elude: Sonalde Desai

The latest NSSO data also underlines the increasing absence of women from the labour market

Every time results from one of the “thick” rounds of the National Sample Survey come out we get into a feeding frenzy trying to slice and dice the statistics for changes since the previous round. Since NSS large rounds are typically conducted every five years there is perhaps some sense to it particularly when studying consumption expenditure although employment changes need a longer horizon. However since this time the 68th round follows the last thick round of 2009-10 with a bare two-year gap this rush to judgement seems excessive. Economic changes in household well being are long-term and instead of being euphoric we should be suspicious of the data if we see major changes after a bare two-year interval. Moreover the reason the NSSO conducted a second survey in 2011-12 in such quick succession was due to the unusual economic conditions in 2009-10 a drought year when some parts of the economy were affected by the worldwide recession thus making it a bad base year for comparisons.

However the 68th round of the NSS provides an opportunity to take stock of the economic changes in the country over the past 20 years. Comparisons of NSS data from 1993-94 with 2011-12 paint an interesting picture of the Indian economy. In broad brushstrokes several key observations deserve attention: First average per capita expenditure used as a proxy for income has grown rapidly for both urban and rural areas although the growth in urban areas far outpaces rural growth when taking inflation into account. Rural average monthly consumption per person has grown from Rs 942 in 1993-94 (in 2011-12 prices) to Rs 1287 in 2011-12 a 37 per cent growth. In contrast urban expenditure has grown from Rs 1597 to Rs 2471 a 55 per cent increase. Although since 2009 the pace of rural expenditure growth has been more or less similar to the pace of urban growth this fails to overcome years of rural disadvantage with average rural expenditure being only half of urban expenditure. Consumption for the top income earners in urban areas has risen even faster so that while consumption for all sections of society has grown the urban rich have benefited disproportionately.

Second in spite of the boast of nearly 14 million new jobs created since 2009-10 when adjusting for population growth with the exception of rural women employment levels in India have been virtually stagnant. Among men worker to population ratios (WPRs) are largely unchanged from 553 per thousand population in 1993-94 to 543 in 2011-12 for urban areas and from 521 to 546 in rural areas; WPRs for urban women also remain at more or less the same levels going from 155 to 147. The minor differences we see could easily be attributable to changes in population age structure. However the decline in the WPR for rural women is large in magnitude — a drop from 328 to 248 over the past two decades.

This decline in employment for rural women is merely an overt sign of tremendous churn in rural labour markets. It is well recognised that the contribution of agriculture to the Indian economy has declined steadily since Independence. The declining importance of agriculture is a normal transformation accompanying economic development. Where India differs from other countries is in the lack of manufacturing opportunities and the consequent crowding of workers in agriculture. While the proportion of the GDP from agriculture has fallen by 50 per cent since 1983 the proportion of workers in agriculture has barely declined by 25 per cent. About half the Indian workforce is still concentrated in agriculture although it accounts for only about 17 per cent of the GDP.

With the declining share of agriculture in the economy it is imperative that more and more workers move out of agriculture into non-agricultural work. To some extent the 68th round documents this shift and for the first time less than 50 per cent of workers are concentrated in agriculture. However these opportunities appear to be limited and are more easily available to men than to women. Consequently while rural men increasingly move into non-farm work particularly in construction labour women appear to be stuck in agriculture often squeezed out of the labour force

The decline in rural women’s work participation has slowed down however. Between 2004-05 and 2009-10 rural women’s WPR including both primary and secondary activities fell from 327 to 261 and further fell to 248 in 2011-12. This amounts to an annual decline of about 2.5 per cent in the past two years compared to about 4.5 per cent in the prior five years. At least some of this improvement may be attributable to MGNREGA which mandates that at least one-third of the beneficiaries be women and men and women should be paid equally. Nonetheless regardless of the opportunities in MGNREGA women’s exclusion from rural labour markets remains a potential concern.

How we think about this decline in women’s work participation is a matter of perspective. Since a vast majority of women reside in households with employed men and with increasing engagement of men in non-farm jobs household incomes have been rising. This may account for some of the decline in women’s work participation. Thus analysts often see this as a positive rather than negative development with the pull factor of higher household incomes leading to women’s withdrawal from the labour force to concentrate on household duties. However the push factor due to blocked labour market opportunities cannot be easily dismissed. The pull explanation gains support from NSS data that documents similar unemployment rates for women as for men; however an alternative data source offers a different explanation.

The second employment and unemployment survey conducted by the Labour Bureau at the same time as the 68th round found the unemployment rate for rural women to be nearly double that for men there by lending credence to the push explanation.

A decrease in rural women’s employment is at least partially responsible for the continued large gaps between urban and rural incomes. Moreover the increasing absence of women from the labour market creates a vicious cycle that makes women invisible and reduces opportunities for women who need to work such as poor women or female household heads. This suggests that the solution for jobless growth may lie in improving access to non-farm employment for women.
The writer is professor of sociology at University of Maryland US and senior fellow at the NCAER New Delhi

    Get updates from NCAER