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Why Earning Women Are More At Risk Of Domestic Violence

Unlike in most economies, employment doesn’t translate into protection from intimate partner violence for women in India. Perversely, they suffer a higher risk especially if they earn more.

The immense potential of India’s large population, particularly women, remains largely underutilised in its rapidly growing economy. Female labour force participation remains nearly 20 percentage points lower than in countries like US and China. One significant barrier women face is ironically at home — the high prevalence of intimate partner violence (IPV). IPV violates basic human rights and undermines their economic participation, reduces productivity in the economy, and negatively impacts future generations when children witness violence at home.

According to the latest National Family and Health Survey (NFHS-5) covering nearly 235k women respondents, one in three (31.8%) had experienced some form of violence from their husband or intimate partner in 2019-21. This rate is comparable to Tajikistan (30.8%), Mozambique (32.7%), and Pakistan (33.5%), and is significantly higher than in Philippines and Maldives (less than 18%). Physical violence alone in India was 28.2%.

Despite the enactment of Protection of Women against Domestic Violence Act (PWDVA 2005), deficiencies in implementation of the Act failed to materially reduce IPV incidence. Lifetime IPV incidence decreased by less than two percentage points during 2015-2021.

Equally concerning is the low rate of reporting among IPV victims. National Crime Records Bureau reveals a glaring mismatch between the reported incidence of IPV in surveys and the number of reported cases of domestic violence. Between 2015 and 2019, the crime rate for cases registered under PWDVA stagnated at just 0.1 per lakh population, and reports of “cruelty by husband or relatives” remained below 20 per lakh population. Survey data paints a similar picture.

NFHS-5 indicates that out of all victims of physical or sexual IPV, only about 1% sought help through formal channels such as police, doctors, lawyers, or social workers in the 2019-21 period. Cases of abuse of existing laws by women also need to be addressed, but their prevalence pales compared to unreported IPV against women.

Emancipation of women hasn’t kept pace with the economic advancement of India. In fact, some of the high-growth states like Tamil Nadu and Karnataka are among the worst offenders. Cultural factors play a big role in India, as many studies have indicated. The question Monique Newiak, Navya Srivastava and I examined in a recent paper is how such cultural factors interact with individual characteristics.

One key finding is that employed women remain at a higher risk of violence from their partners, especially if they earn more than their partners. This finding contrasts sharply with the experience in other countries where economic independence of women is viewed as a driving force in reducing IPV.

But there are mitigating factors. We find that the risk of violence is lower when the husband is more educated; when reporting by victims is more common; or societal acceptance of IPV is lower. At the state level, the presence of more women leaders, better reporting infra for victims, and higher charge-sheeting rates matter.

Focusing exclusively on economic independence of women is highly unlikely to materially reduce IPV in India, because social empowerment is also needed that requires challenging patriarchal norms. Violence is often normalised by the victim herself. The share of women who justify wife-beating is a mind-boggling 41%, even higher than those of men. What are some ways in which a society can break the shackles of prevalent cultural norms?

As a starter, signals from leadership matter. During his first Independence Day Speech in 2014, PM urged every parent to treat sons and daughters as equals during their formative years and reinforced the message in 2022 — to “get rid of everything in our behaviour, culture and everyday life that humiliates and demeans women”. Such messages must get more traction from media, and state and local leaders. But as recent elections campaigns in Delhi revealed, local politicians continue to use offensive remarks against women politicians.

Given the enormous cost of domestic violence for society and the economy, every Indian citizen is a stakeholder. In that regard, there are several steps that can be taken by different stakeholders.

First, schools and colleges should introduce mandatory courses on gender equality, as part of the larger goal of embracing diversity. Second, civil society organisations should launch systematic campaigns in every community. Third, all legal rights should be gender-equitable — women in India currently enjoy only 60% of the legal rights afforded to men. Fourth, the capacity of local institutions — such as judiciary, police stations, and support centres — needs overhauling. Finally, the victims themselves must rise against atrocities and find their voice. This can only happen if we prioritise the safety and dignity of every woman — not just in policy, but in practice. Only then can India move towards becoming an inclusive and developed economy.

The writer is professor, National Council of Applied Economic Research. Views are personal.

New AI models risk economic amnesia

Will machines that think also forget? 

Artificial intelligence is now irreversibly out of Pandora’s box, as Martin Wolf of the Financial Times observed, and we must learn to live with machines that can think. The real concern, however, is not just the intelligence of these machines but what they might choose to forget.

For centuries, economic history has served as a foundation for policy-makers, investors and scholars to learn about financial cycles, crises and macroeconomic transformations. From the South Sea Bubble of 1720 to France’s Mississippi Company collapse and the Panic of 1873, history has repeatedly warned of the dangers of speculation, leverage and financial excess.

Contemporary challenges, from inflationary spirals to financial bubbles, have even more recent historical parallels from the Great Depression to the 2008 financial crisis, which reaffirm how history provides insight. Even our understanding of the global South’s economic trajectory today is incomplete without acknowledging the structural forces that shaped it over centuries.

As AI takes on a greater role in economic analysis and policy, an unsettling question arises: will its ability to recognise systemic risks with historical precedents weaken with a lack of immediate algorithmic reference? If AI models prioritise recent information, they may fail to detect the cyclical patterns that have long defined economic history.

The risk is not that AI will erase history, but that it will make historical knowledge seem less relevant and ultimately less studied. A world that sidelines history in favour of algorithmic optimisation risks repeating past mistakes under the illusion that AI-driven models are inherently forward-looking and rational.

Forgetting the past

Economic thought has never evolved in isolation. The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith was shaped by the emergence of industrial capitalism, Keynesian economics was a response to the Great Depression and Milton Friedman’s monetarist theories were a reaction to the inflationary crises of the 1970s. More recently, post-2008 financial regulations, including stress testing, capital buffers and macroprudential measures, were crafted with past financial crises in mind.

Yet as central banks, financial institutions and regulatory bodies turn to AI models for predictive accuracy, historical analysis risks becoming secondary. AI excels at identifying correlations within a defined dataset, but economic and financial cycles do not always conform to short-term trends or linear progressions. For instance, Mexico’s vulnerability to short-term external debt before the 1994 peso crisis was crucially underestimated, as its immediate economic history had been one of high investor confidence. The failure of AI models to account for these deeper historical cycles could leave policy-makers unprepared for financial stress that follows long-established, often forgotten patterns.

Perils of financial amnesia

Financial markets, more than any other domain, have long suffered from a collective amnesia, repeatedly underestimating risks with clear historical precedents. AI-driven quantitative trading models, typically trained on just 10 to 20 years of data, could worsen this tendency by reinforcing short-termism. If AI-based trading strategies dominate decision-making, will human investors still be able to recognise these warning signs?

The 2008 financial crisis is a prime example: risk models failed to foresee a nationwide housing market collapse, largely because such an event had not occurred in modern financial history. If AI models trained primarily on post-2010 data reinforce similar blind spots, markets could once again be lulled into a false sense of security. The risk is not simply that financial crises will recur – that is inevitable –but that broader preparedness for systemic crises will erode as day-to-day algorithmic prediction becomes more precise.

Dangers of algorithmic curation

AI is not only transforming economic analysis, it is also shaping access to historical knowledge entirely. AI-powered search engines, large language models and financial news aggregators increasingly determine which historical narratives are visible and which fade from view. This algorithmic curation of history is not neutral; it reflects biases embedded in training data and prioritises dominant sources over others. Over time, this could narrow economic discourse, reinforcing widely accepted but potentially flawed interpretations, while marginalising alternative viewpoints.

This is particularly concerning in cases where economic history is complex and contested. There is continuous debate over whether the Great Depression was primarily a market failure or a policy failure, whether the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s was inevitable or the result of avoidable policy missteps, and whether the 2008 financial crisis stemmed more from excessive leverage or from decades of financial deregulation. There are various interpretations of colonialism’s economic consequences and the extent to which today’s economic development problems go back to taxation and trade policies of those times.

These are not simple questions, nor do they have singular, prepackaged answers. Yet if AI-driven knowledge systems prioritise specific interpretations over others, they risk flattening historical complexity into deterministic narratives, narrowing the scope of economic debate.

AI’s impact on policy-making

The most immediate danger of AI-driven historical amnesia lies in economic policy-making. Central banks and financial regulators have traditionally studied past crises to inform present decisions. Even post-pandemic monetary policies reflected a deep reading of past inflationary episodes. As AI-driven models take on a larger role in policy analysis, we will see historical case studies being supplanted by algorithmic forecasting and real-time risk modelling. While AI can improve short-term predictive accuracy, it remains unclear whether it will detect vulnerabilities rooted in past financial crises.

OMFIF’s Future of payments notes that institutions such as Bank Indonesia and Banque de France are deploying AI to enhance predictive accuracy. Would AI models trained primarily on post-2010 data have flagged the structural weaknesses that led to the Asian financial crisis, the 1994 Mexican peso crisis or the 2008 collapse? The danger is not simply a failure to predict the next financial shock, but a weakening of institutional memory that makes crisis response less effective.

Despite these risks, AI could serve as a tool for historical preservation rather than amnesia, and, if used properly, could enhance economic history rather than erode it. AI has the potential to digitalise and reconstruct lost economic records, making archives more accessible as well as help identify long-term economic patterns that can span multiple centuries and improve our understanding of financial cycles. AI has the potential to democratise access to historical economic knowledge, ensuring that insights once buried in academic journals or central bank archives are available to a broader audience.

The challenge, then, is not merely to ensure AI’s accuracy in short-term forecasting, but to guard against the erosion of historical context in its analysis. The machines are here, but whether they deepen our understanding of economic history or contribute to its gradual neglect remains a choice still within human hands.

Udaibir Das is a visiting professor at the National Council of Applied Economic Research, senior non-resident adviser at the Bank of England, senior adviser of the International Forum for Sovereign Wealth Funds, and distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation America. He was previously at the Bank for International Settlements, the International Monetary Fund and the Reserve Bank of India.

Reduce, reuse, and recycle

Waste management is the responsibility of municipal bodies in urban India. But these local bodies have inadequate waste-disposal facilities and poor resources.

The excess dumping of waste at the Dhapa ground has been a cause of concern for the Kolkata Municipal Corporation. The civic body is looking for an alternative dumping ground as Dhapa is gradually becoming inadequate to cater to the vast amount of waste that the city produces every day. This is a problem for almost all major cities in India and is likely to aggravate in the future since by the middle of this century, more than 60% of India’s habitants will reside in urban India. India ranks seventh globally in solid waste generation, with the present rate of SWG being 0.34 kg per capita per day; this is expected to increase to 0.7 kg per day by 2025. If this trend continues, India will generate 165 million tonnes of waste by 2030. Why do we generate so much waste? Do other countries also throw so much waste to their landfills?

Several countries have achieved progress in waste management, even reducing waste generation over the years. Sweden, for example, has drastically reduced the amount of waste dumped into landfills, from around 22% of municipal solid waste in 2001 to 1% in 2010. This means that only 42,000 tonnes of solid waste were ending up in landfills in 2010 in Sweden compared to 8,80,000 tonnes in 2001. The recycling rate of electrical and electronic equipment waste hovers near 75% in Sweden, whereas India recycled only 32.9% of the e-waste generated in 2021-2022. If Sweden can achieve this level of recycling, why are we lagging behind? Recycling is a labour-intensive activity. Given the low cost of labour in India, unlike that of a developed country like Sweden, it is surprising that India has such a low recycling rate.

Presently, India generates more than 62 million tonnes of waste in a year, of which only 43 MT gets collected and 31 MT is discarded in wasteyards because only 12 MT can be treated before disposal. With increasing populations and urbanisation, waste management is now a serious problem in India. Waste management is generally considered the responsibility of local municipal bodies in urban India. But these local bodies have inadequate waste-disposal facilities, poor resources, and shoddy technologies for treatment. In India, the informal sector is primarily involved in waste collection and disposal, unlike some developed countries where it is an organised industry, and this leads to inefficient waste collection and segregation. This not only causes inefficiency in the waste management process but is also harmful to the people who are at risk of exposure to dangerous chemicals and neurotoxicants, including lead and mercury, from e-waste disposal sites. India generates over 5.6 MT of plastic waste a year. There is little infrastructure to accommodate the recycling of the plastic waste generated every day in the country. Public awareness and participation in waste management are also abysmally low. Additionally, policies concerning waste management in India broadly focus on end-of-life waste management and there is little focus on reducing waste and maintaining the value proposition of material and components. The business environment is also not very conducive to developing businesses for goods and services that are dependent on recycled material since the supply chain is not developed yet and there is also a lack of incentives for downcycling.

India has launched Mission Lifestyle for Environment, which encourages individuals to adopt environmentally-friendly, sustainable lifestyles. This calls for nudging individuals to practise simple yet effective environment-friendly actions in their daily lives, gradually influencing industries and markets to supply environment-friendly commodities and generate demand for them. The Union budget of 2024-25 announced that water supply, sewage treatment and solid waste management projects and services for 100 large cities would be promoted through bankable projects in partnership with state governments and multilateral development banks. These projects will also promote the use of treated water for irrigation and for filling up tanks in nearby areas. On the regulation front, there are certain stipulations regarding the waste management of cities, including rules on plastic waste management, e-waste management, construction and demolition waste management, and policies on metals recycling. NITI Aayog, in consultation with the ministry of environment and forest and climate change, identified 11 areas to facilitate transitioning from linear to circular economy and to give an impetus to India’s Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyaan. The identified areas were Municipal Solid Waste and Liquid Waste, Scrap Metal (ferrous and non-ferrous), Lithium Ion batteries, Tyre and Rubber Recycling, Gypsum Waste, End-of-life Vehicles, Electronic Waste, Toxic and Hazardous Industrial Waste, Used Oil Waste, Agriculture Waste and Solar Panels. Municipal solid and liquid waste management has received a significant push with the launch of the Swachh Bharat Mission-Urban in 2014. Significant progress has been made in utilising fly ash and slag generated in the steel industry and other sectors. The ministry of consumer affairs has set up a committee to come up with a Right to Repair framework under which farming equipment, mobile phones and tablets, consumer durables, automobiles and automobile equipment and so on are covered.

There is an urgent need to increase our policy focus on ‘reuse or recycle’, which would gradually reduce the generation of waste commodities. In this circular economy approach, products need to be designed in such a way that waste and pollution are minimised. This involves considering the full lifecycle of a product through strategies like reuse, repair, remanufacturing, and recycling. The goal is to keep materials and products circulating in the economy for as long as possible.

There is a significant need for research and development focussing on reuse and recycling. Waste-to-energy programmes must be encouraged where different methods of incineration, gasification, pyrolysis, anaerobic digestion and others are explored. It is often found that manufacturers retain proprietary control of spare parts, including their design. Warranty cards of several products mention that getting them repaired from an outfit not recognised by the makers would lead to customers losing their warranty benefit. Regulations are needed to make repairing easy and cost-effective. Publication of manuals for complex electronic and electrical goods must be made mandatory to help users or local repair shops make repairs easily.

India needs to focus on the mantra of ‘Reduce, Reuse, and Recycle’ to meet the challenge of urban waste management.

Chetana Chaudhuri is a Fellow and Sanjib Pohit a Professor at the National Council of Applied Economic Research. Views are personal.

India’s women: The long road to equality

Fifty years ago, in 1974, the landmark ‘Towards Equality’ report for the first time critically analysed the status of women in India. The report laid out the systemic barriers that confined Indian women to the margins of education, employment and politics. As we mark its golden jubilee, it is imperative to examine the progress made, the challenges that persist, and the opportunities that lie ahead for achieving true gender equality in India. It is to be underlined that the report and its critical comments on the status of women were for the State, where the State was ruling, not the market. There has been mixed progress in the past 50 years where remarkable change was registered in the areas of women’s education and health but in several other areas, there has not been appreciable progress. Issues like unfavourable sex ratio to girls, lower economic participation, migration, informalisation of labour, poor representation of women in leadership positions, new forms of crimes against women in the digital era, climate change and its disproportionate impact on women etc. continue to demand the attention of the State and, since liberalisation, of the markets to work together to move the needle further.

In 1974, women’s access to education in India was hindered by deep-rooted social prejudices and limited opportunities. The literacy rate for women stood at a dismal 22%, compared to 46% for men, with early marriage, lack of infrastructure, and social norms preventing many girls from accessing schools. Though various barriers still exist, significant progress has been made in the last 50 years. Women’s literacy has crossed 60% with various programmes right from the national literacy mission, Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan, Right to Education to Beti Bachao Beti Padhao, coupled with increasing awareness among people to send their female wards to education. Girls’ enrolment in schools and colleges has surged, and they now represent an impressive 43% of students in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) fields.

Improvements in access to education are driving change in other areas too. However, gender disparities persist, particularly in rural areas and among marginalised communities. Girls, especially from marginalised communities, often drop out of school due to early marriage, financial constraints, or a lack of sanitation facilities. The digital divide has further widened gender inequality in education. Hence, the next phase must focus on retaining girls in school, bridging urban-rural divides, and ensuring their education translates into meaningful careers. Further, despite educational advancements, women’s representation in STEM careers remains disproportionately low. It is necessary that the support for women’s careers starts right from family, to state, market, law, media etc.

Since the report, women’s workforce participation has increased significantly – the female labour force participation rate has grown to 41.7% but is lower than the global average of 48%. Furthermore, most of this growth is driven by informal and self-employment. Wage gaps remain and in the formal sector, despite growing educational achievements, women occupy only 19% of senior management roles. Government schemes like Stand-Up India and MUDRA have helped but women-led businesses often remain small-scale ventures with limited economic impact due to persistent barriers like restricted access to larger credit, markets, and mentorship.

Quantitative and qualitative improvements in women’s labour force participation can only be made through introduction and strict enforcement of policies to improve childcare infrastructure, enforce equal pay, and incentivise women’s entry into formal, high-paying jobs.

Political participation: A mixed bag

In 1974, despite trailblazing leaders like Indira Gandhi, women’s political presence was virtually invisible. The report underscored the absence of women in decision-making roles, with their participation often limited to token representation. The 73rd and 74th Constitutional Amendments marked a turning point in correcting this through a constitutional mandate of 33% reservations for women in local governance. Today, there are more than 20 states that have gone for even higher 50% reservation for women in local governance. Women constitute over 45% of elected representatives in Panchayati Raj Institutions now. However, at the state and national levels, women’s representation remains critically low, with women holding only 13.26% of parliamentary seats which is significantly below the global average. Moreover, women’s role in political decision-making is even more constrained, as only seven women hold ministerial position.in the 18th Lok Sabha.

Implementation of the 33% reservation for women in Parliament and State assemblies remains uncertain due to its dependence on the politically sensitive process of delimitation. To address this gap, India must prioritise legislative reforms and actively promote women’s leadership beyond grassroots levels. To enhance women’s political participation, political parties should implement pre-election capacity-building programmes tailored for female candidates.

The past 50 years have witnessed a remarkable journey for Indian women – from exclusion to inclusion in education, the economy, and governance. However, equality is not just about numbers. It is about dismantling structural barriers and building an environment where women can thrive as equal partners in development. By investing in education, fostering economic independence, and ensuring political representation, India can drive inclusive growth. While quantitative improvements have taken place, the qualitative change in terms of social transformation in gender roles and accepting women as equal partners of development by recognising their agency has not.

The ‘Towards Equality’ report was a clarion call for change. In the context of commemorating its 50th anniversary, India must renew its commitment to gender equality, ensuring that the next 50 years bring greater opportunities, empowerment, and justice for all women. Women are not homogeneous and any analysis based on tokenism in fields with a few women’s presence cannot be accepted as women from the marginalised communities continue to suffer the worst. Hence, the intersectional perspective of understanding the issues of women in the margins and a special policy towards addressing the same will go a long way in ensuring Sustainable Development Goal 5 and developing solutions to the issues pointed in the ‘Towards Equality’ report. The road may be long, but the journey is well underway.

Jyoti is an associate fellow, National Council of Applied Economic Research, Delhi; Manimekalai is Director, Centre for Women’s Development Studies, Delhi. Views are personal.

Survey of the MSME Sector ofAssam with Focus on Sectors with Data Gaps

The survey findings reveal that there are more than 20.27 lakh MSMEs contributing significantly to the economy of Assam. From bustling bazaars to manufacturing hubs, these enterprises are not just businesses; they are the heartbeat of local economies, providing livelihoods and fostering growth. The survey unveils the diverse tapestry of Assam’s MSMEs, with nearly half engaged in the pulse of local markets through ‘Retail or Wholesale Trade’. Essential services follow closely, constituting approximately 28 per cent, while 23 percent contribute to the domains of ‘Manufacturing/Assembling/Processing’.

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