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The India Policy Forum 2021

 

NCAER hosted its marquee event, the India Policy Forum (IPF) from July 12 through to July 15, 2021. As in 2020, the IPF 2021 Conference was hosted virtually. The IPF is the leading economic policy event in the summer season of Delhi, featuring a galaxy of eminent policymakers, and economists and academics worldwide working on India. The IPF, now in its 18th year, promotes rigorous empirical research on Indian economic policy through commissioned papers presented at the conference. These papers are discussed by leading researchers and top Indian policymakers, and then edited and published in the annual India Policy Forum volume.

 

With the country facing unprecedented health and economic challenges, the high-calibre discussions during IPF’s 18th edition focused on the key economic challenges facing India and policies needed to guide the nation out of the grim and far-reaching impact that the pandemic has had on both lives and livelihoods.  The IPF 2021 was attended by over 40 presenters, discussants, and panellists, deliberating on four IPF research papers, as well as two lectures, and two Roundtable events focusing on pressing issues. The Conference thus brought together policymakers, experts, researchers, and academics from all over the world. Former RBI Governor, Dr Raghuram Rajan, and former Chief Economic Adviser, Dr Arvind Subramanian, were among the Chairs of the paper presentation sessions.

 

The welcome remarks at the Conference were delivered by Dr Surjit Bhalla, Executive Director, IMF and Governing Body member.  Among the highlights of the event was the first policy roundtable, moderated by Dr K P Krishnan, IEPF Chair Professor at NCAER, and former Union Secretary in the Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship. The participants at this roundtable, which discussed the future of economic reforms, included the current Finance Secretary, Dr T.V. Somanathan, and three former Finance Secretaries, including Mr Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Dr Vijay Kelkar, and Mr Ashok Chawla. While expressing his views on crucial issues such as reforms, deficit monetisation, protectionism, the banking sector, and health insurance, Dr T.V. Somanathan said, “What may seem impossible at one time may become feasible later. Bad ideas don’t necessarily drive out the good and the good ideas keep surviving and coming back from time to time”. He also mentioned that GST systems had been tightened and improved, which would lead to an increase in revenue in the near future.

The second roundtable at the event, on “Emerging from the Long Shadow of COVID”, which was moderated by Dr Sonalde Desai, Distinguished Professor at University of Maryland & Professor NCAER, brought to the fore the issues of reopening schools during the pandemic and its impact on various sections of society.

 Earlier, Dr Shanta Devarajan, who has had a long innings at the World Bank, delivered the 3rd T N Srinivasan Memorial Lecture on “Responding to COVID-19 amidst Market and Government Failures”. This session was chaired by Rukmini Banerji of the Pratham Education Foundation. 

The IPF concluded with a seminal lecture on ‘Federalism during the Pandemic”, which was chaired by Dr Arvind Panagariya. Mr Singh commenced his lecture by commending NCAER for conducting the IPF as “an exceedingly cohesive event in short time”. Congratulating the new Director General, Dr Poonam Gupta on her assumption of office on 1 July 2021, he stated, “We look forward to her able stewardship and guidance in steering NCAER to new heights.”

 

NCAER has its first woman Director General. Dr Poonam Gupta joined NCAER on July 1, 2021

Dr Poonam Gupta joined NCAER as its new Director General on July 1st, 2021. She succeeds Dr Shekhar Shah, who completed his second five-year term in May earlier this year. Dr Gupta is the first woman Director General of NCAER.

Dr Gupta brings with her a rich experience spanning more than two decades to this key post. Prior to joining NCAER, she was Lead Economist, Global Macro and Market Research, International Finance Corporation (IFC); and Lead Economist for India at the World Bank. Her erstwhile appointments include the Reserve Bank of India Chair Professor at National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP); Professor at Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER); Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics; and Economist at the International Monetary Fund.

Earlier, in the month of April this year, NCAER’s Governing Body announced the appointment of Poonam Gupta as its next Director General. In a statement issued to the media, Nandan Nilekani, President of NCAER said “We are delighted to have Poonam succeed Shekhar at the end of his successful tenure. NCAER has a unique heritage among India’s intellectual landscape and she brings a set of unique experiences and perspectives that will accelerate, deepen and broaden our research agenda with impact and rigor”.

Dr Gupta has published extensively in peer-reviewed scholarly and policy journals and is among the top economists working on India. Her work has frequently featured in the national and international media, including in The Economist, Financial Times, and Wall Street Journal. She holds a PhD in International Economics from the University of Maryland, USA, and a Masters in Economics from the Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi.

Dr Gupta will be leading NCAER’s annual flagship Conference, the India Policy Forum (IPF), from July 12 through July 15, 2021. The IPF, now in its 18th year, is a marquee economic policy event, on the academic and policy horizon of New Delhi. IPF 2021 will feature a galaxy of eminent speakers, and panellists from India and overseas, as well as top researchers and Indian policymakers. It will facilitate lively debate and discussion on the key economic challenges facing the nation.

Looking ahead to a vivacious and engaging Conference, Dr Gupta opined, “The India Policy Forum is one of the most important annual Conferences held at NCAER, and I am delighted to commence my tenure at NCAER almost in tandem with this event. We at NCAER look forward to welcoming a host of luminaries on this occasion, all of whom will enrich the discussions at the Conference.”

She stated, “The last year and a half has been extremely tough for India and the world for both the people and the economy. Through our various forums and advocacy events, we at NCAER are trying to do our bit to find ways to mitigate the crisis caused by the pandemic-induced lockdowns and economic recession, and alleviate people’s suffering, especially the marginalised sections who have faced the brunt of the impact. The IPF will thus focus on these critical issues, with the best of minds from the academic, research and policy communities coming together to seek solutions to deal with the pandemic and restore both economic buoyancy and public confidence.”

Quarterly Review of the Economy, 2021-22:Q1

The second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic—significantly more virulent than the first wave—has completely disrupted the economic recovery process after the first wave.  India’s growth prospects in 2021-22 will depend on a host of factors which will determine how quickly India recovers from the impact of the second wave of the pandemic.

Where will the Indian economy go from here?  What should be the policy response to this massive shock that has entered the second year, to help restore the recovery process? How should macroeconomic policy navigate its way between the conflicting policy goals of stimulating economic recovery and containing inflation, which has started rising now?

On Friday, June 25, the NCAER macroeconomic team addressed these questions while presenting NCAER’s Quarterly Review of the Economy for 2021-22:Q1. The QRE’s principal authors, NCAER Distinguished Fellow Sudipto Mundle, Senior Fellow Bornali Bhandari, and Assistant Professor, NIPFP, Rudrani Bhattacharya, presented the report. Distinguished guest speakers, Indira Rajaraman  and Rakesh Mohan  spoke at the webinar . Indira Rajaraman is a former Member of the 13th Finance Commission. Rakesh Mohan is President and Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Social & Economic Progress (CSEP).  The discussion was moderated by NCAER Senior Adviser, Research Programmes, Shashanka Bhide . NCAER Officiating Director General, Anil Sharma gave the welcome remarks.

 

Data Talks: The NCAER Data Innovation Centre Methodology Seminars (Second Seminar)

Combining Data from Multiple Sources: Potential and Challenges of Data Linkages

The second webinar in the NCAER Seminar series on Data Collection Methodology organised by the NCAER National Data Innovation Centre was held virtually on June 24, 2021. The webinar is part of a series of thought-provoking discussions on research methodologies in which distinguished speakers in the field will share their views and one or more discussants will reflect on them from an Indian perspective. This talk was delivered by Frauke Kreuter, Professor of Statistics and Data Science for the Social Sciences and Humanities at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich (Germany) and Professor at the Joint Program in Survey Methodology at the University of Maryland. K.S. James from the International Institute for Population Sciences and Soumya Bhaduri from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) were the discussants.

Combining data from different sources has become essential for social scientists and policy makers to take full advantage of the data deluge in an increasingly digitalised society. While we see many attempts at using a single approach (big data sources) with mixed results, the most exciting projects rely on a combination of different data, some of which are still collected through traditional modes. In this talk, Professor Kreuter highlighted a few approaches and provide a framework enabling researchers to think about creating new data products.

Professor Kreuter used several examples from economic research, with a specific focus on the IAB-SMART research project to discuss privacy issues and approaches deployed to create high-quality combined data sources (read more here). The IAB-SMART study uses innovative data sources, such as administrative records, surveys, and digital traces from smart phones, to measure the effects of long-term unemployment on social integration and social activity. Using the case study from different countries, the talk demonstrated how to handle potential coverage bias and biases due to non-response and measurement errors, while being cognisant of privacy norms.

Professor Kreuter co-founded and co-directs the Data Science Centers at the Universities of Maryland (USA) and Mannheim (Germany). She is an elected fellow of the American Statistical Association and the 2020 recipient of the Warren Mitofsky Innovators Award of the American Association for Public Opinion Research. Dr. Kreuter is the Founder of the International Program for Survey and Data Science, developed in response to the increasing demand from researchers and practitioners for the appropriate methods and right tools to face a changing data environment.

K.S. James is the Director and Senior Professor, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), Mumbai. Prior to joining IIPS, he was Professor of Demography, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. He works extensively on demographic changes with a focus on population and development, and ageing issues. He has published widely on the demographic transition and demographic dividend in India.

Soumya Bhadury is a macroeconomist currently working with the Strategic Research Unit at the RBI. His research interests include understanding macro-financial linkages in emerging markets. Before joining RBI, he worked as an economist at NCAER.

The first seminar was presented by Stanley Presser, Distinguished University Professor at the University of Maryland.

 

Fourth & Fifth Workshop | Investor Education and Protection in India’s Banking Sector

In continuation of this series of workshops on investor education in the financial sector, the fourth and fifth workshops were held on two consecutive days. Organised by NCAER’s newly established Investor Education and Protection Fund (IEPF) Chair Unit , the workshop series was inaugurated on December 16, 2020 with a keynote address by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, followed by three workshops on the securities, insurance, and pension fund markets. The National Strategy for Financial Education (NSFE) 2020-25 which recognizes the unique challenges of creating a financially aware and empowered India, and the need for convergence of efforts by multiple stakeholders that regulate and manage India’s financial resources forms the basis of this initiative.

 

These two workshops focused on the banking sector and were held virtually . The fourth workshop addressed issues in the payment and settlement systems and was chaired by T Rabi Sankar, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India. The discussion entailed on how technology is reshaping the payments and settlement ecosystem and its impact on consumers. A panel drawing experts from industry, regulatory and consumer bodies deliberated over several consumer centric issues. Some of these deliberations included the need for a separate financial consumer protection law in India, whether consumer protection should extend to price control, and the possibility of ex-ante market caps for addressing concentration in payments.

The fifth workshop focused on banking and credit, and was chaired by Anil Kumar Sharma, Executive Director, Reserve Bank of India.  This included consumer advice in banking branches, quality of financial inclusion, systems of regulation and supervision and the future of banking and credit. The government’s viewpoint was presented by Pankaj Jain, Additional Secretary, Department of Financial Services. The panel discussion focused on several challenges faced by depositors. These included falling rates of interest, KYC verification and lack of options to have multiple nominees for a bank account.

These NCAER workshops with key regulators served as an opportunity to both learn from domain experts and regulators about their ideas and strategies for investor education and to contribute to refining the priorities for action and for creating scope for relevant further research and improving the knowledge base in this area.

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