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National health survey indicates the urgent need for lowering maternal and infant mortality rates as well as for promoting responsible and mature parenthood.

GoI’s decision last week to introduce a Bill increasing the legal age of marriage for women from 18 to 21 years has drawn a lot of attention receiving both bouquets and brickbats. Among its other suggestions the Bill seeks to amend the Prohibition of Child Marriage Act 2006 to bring women at par with men in terms of marriageable age (21 for both) and to prohibit child marriage irrespective of any currently prevalent law custom usage or practice.

Those supporting the move claim it would improve health and education outcomes for girls by reducing the incidence of child marriages and early pregnancies. On the other hand opponents of the Bill argue that the enactment of such a law in a deeply patriarchal society will not only compromise the autonomy of women in their marital choices vis-a-vis domineering parents but could also imperil the legal rights of currently married women below 21 should they be widowed or abandoned by their husbands before attaining the legal age.

Women and Child Development Minister Smriti Irani cited figures from the recently released compendium of fact sheets on health and empowerment indicators under the fifth round of the National Family Health Surveys (NFHS-5) for 2019-21 to bolster GoI’s argument. She pointed out that as per NFHS-5 data 7% of girls between 15 and 18 years were found to be pregnant and over 23% were married below the age of 18. These figures highlighted the urgent need for lowering both maternal mortality and infant mortality rates as well as for promoting responsible and mature parenthood for both the father and mother which has a direct bearing on their age at marriage.

The Bill is the result of a recommendation by a task force set up in June 2020 led by ex-Samata Party president Jaya Jaitley to examine this question. The task force report ostensibly avers that a delay in marriage has positive economic social and health benefits for families women children and society at large.

In this context it is imperative to unpack the small print in the Bill especially correlating it to the findings of NFHS-5 which covered 14 states and Union territories including Arunachal Pradesh Chhattisgarh Haryana Jharkhand Madhya Pradesh Odisha Punjab Rajasthan Tamil Nadu Uttar Pradesh Uttarakhand Chandigarh NCT Delhi and Puducherry. Some of the significant data in NFHS-5 pertain to the ‘Woman’s Schedule’ component of the survey covering a diverse spectrum of indicators including marriage fertility healthcare nutrition reproductive health women’s empowerment and domestic violence.

Wedding Belles Can Wait

The two key questions on gender-based indicators related to marriage in NFHS-5 concerned the proportion of women aged 20-24 years married before 18 and the adolescent fertility rate for women aged 15-19 years. At the state level the most impressive results on these questions were recorded by Rajasthan which showed a decline in child marriage among girls from 35.4% in NFHS-4 conducted during 2015-16 to 25.4 in NFHS-5. Simultaneously the adolescent fertility rate in the state declined from 46% to 31% over the two survey periods.

The other two states to record a notable fall in both the incidence of underage marriages and fertility rates among female teenagers were Chhattisgarh and Haryana. In the former the incidence of girls married below the marriageable age dropped from 21.3% to 12.1% and the adolescent fertility rate declined from 36% to 24%. The corresponding declines witnessed in Haryana were from 19.4% to 12.5% in child marriages and from 41% to 27% in the teenage pregnancy rate. Overall India recorded a reduction in child marriages from 26.8% to 23.3% whereas the adolescent fertility rate for women aged 15-19 dropped from 51% to 43%.

A December 2016 ActionAid study (bit.ly/3qtTK66) based on the India Human Development Survey 2 (IHDS-2) had shown a drop in the percentage of women in India in the 20-24 age group who were married before 18 from 56.8% in 1992-93 (NFHS-1) to 36.2% in 2011-12 (IHDS- 2). The IHDS conducted jointly by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) and University of Maryland in two rounds in 2004-05 and 2011-12 interviewed 41554 households in 1503 villages and 971 urban neighbourhoods across India.

The IHDS figures certainly offered an occasion for some cheer but the ActionAid report came with the caveat that the number of child marriages and their prevalence among girls continued to be alarmingly high. Even the last census in 2011 revealed that 7.4 million persons were married before 18 and of these 88% were girls.

Man Proposes Law Disposes

So will the proposed Bill on increasing women’s marriageable age help improve these worrisome indicators? Activists of child and civil rights assert that passage of the Bill will lead to a toothless law if its implementation is not accompanied by resolution of related issues like the eradication of the education gap between boys and girls and strengthening women’s autonomy and awareness about their rights and privileges.

Until that happens however we could derive some consolation from the fact that at least the long-pending issue of ensuring gender equity in marriage by bringing at par the marriageable age for women and men has been brought into the mainstream discussion at the highest policy level.

Anupma Mehta is Editor at the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER). Views expressed in the article are personal. 

Indian cashew is exported to more than 60 countries in the world with the main markets being UAE USA Netherlands UK Germany Japan and Australia.

The country earned foreign exchange equivalent to Rs. 5870.97 crores from the export of 84352 metric tonnes of cashew nuts during the year 2017-18. 

Maharashtra accounts for one-third of the country’s total cashew production of which a significant proportion (over 60 per cent) is produced in the Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg districts therefore it is reasonable to assume that cashew from these districts accounts for a sizeable share in country’s export to other countries.

Hence cashew grown in Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg clearly has a huge demand in the international market. 

According to the Directorate of Cashewnut and Cocoa Production Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare Maharashtra accounted for about 33 per cent of the total country’s cashew production in 2017-18. Its share has remained almost unchanged since the last ten years.

Figure 1 presents the shares of the top cashew-producing States in the country in terms of both area and production. The figure also depicts the productivity of cashew in these States as per the latest data from 2017-18.   

Figure 1: Shares of States in the Production and Area under Cashew Cultivation

Source:Directorate of Cashewnut and Cocoa Production Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare

Maharashtra far exceeds the other cashew producing states in terms of area under cashew cultivation cashew production and also its productivity at 1378 kg/hectare.

Within Maharashtra cashew is a traditional crop in Konkan region comprising Palghar Raigad Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg districts. The total area under cashew cultivation is 1.91 lakh hectares of which more than 75 per cent is in the South Konkan region of Maharashtra mainly in Sindhudurg and Ratnagiri district.

While the productivity of Raigad is the highest at 1500 kg/hectare but its share in both area and production is very small. The productivity in Sindhudurg is impressive at 1378 kg/ha. Together Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg account for more than 95 percent of the area under cashew production in South Konkan region.

Their share in production is also more than 95 percent. Clearly there is an abundance of cashew produce for overseas market. 

Figure 2: Shares of the South Konkan Districts in the Production and Area under Cashew Cultivation

Source:District Superintendent Agriculture Officer Ratnagiri.

There are about 800 cashew-processing units in Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg district. Most of these are small labour-intensive units that are capable of generating significant employment opportunities especially for rural women.

Apart from this there is one in Ratnagiri district and two-cashew cluster in Sindhudurg district to provide common facilities to cashew processing units. 

Against this backdrop the district stakeholders of the Konkan region processing units and cashew farmers are unanimous in putting up their voices for a regional branch of Cashew Export Promotion Council of India (CEPCI) in either of the two districts.

They have argued this on the ground that having a regional branch will increase the export of cashew kernel as well as Cashew Nut Cell Liquid (CNCL) and area under cashew cultivation. This initiative is also expected uplift the economy of the entire south Konkan region and increased capital formation and foreign exchange earning for the economy as a whole.  

The Government of Maharashtra is taking several initiatives to promote the export of mangoes produced in the two districts and has announced that the districts of Ratnagiri Sindhudurg Thane and Raigad in the Konkan region would comprise the Agri-export Zone for Alphonso mangoes. Central Government’s scheme of One District One Product (ODOP) also considers only Mango for Ratnagiri and Sindudurg.

Since both cashews and mangoes are major cash crops in the Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg district the cashew growers are demanding some initiatives for the promotion of cashew kernel also. One of these is the setting up of a regional office or a branch of the Cashew Export Promotion Council in either Ratnagiri or Sindhudurg district and considering cashew along with mango for ODOP.

The cashew and mango grown in Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg have huge demand in international market. But these are not directly exported from the districts. The Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust Navi Mumbai is 300 km. away from Ratnagiri. The sources of transportation are Konkan railway and Mumbai Goa highway.  

The cashew processing units in South Konkan region will be worth contributing in processing of 158537 MT cashew from domestic market as well as cashew imported from African countries.

The cashew export promotional council will play prominent role in the export of cashew kernel in the global market. It will be also helpful to establish brand image of Konkan Cashew Kernel like Ratnagiri Alphonso mango. 

Currently due to financial constraints the processing units are not optimally utilised. Rather than exporting they are forced to send their produce to other states like Goa Kerala and Andhra Pradesh etc. Also the processing units operate for only 4 months in a year due to lack of working capital.

For providing necessary liaison for bringing together foreign importers with member exporters of cashew kernels also a regional branch of CEPCI could provide necessary network. This will result in higher profitability to the cashew processing units due to attractive prices in the global market. 

In Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg districts there are infrastructural facilities required for promotion of mangoes cashew kernel processed fish  and other products like ports as Jaygad port Javaharlal Neharu Port Trust ( JNPT)  authority for issue of Phy-  sanitary  certificate required for export Export Promotion Agency Office Export Inspection Agency etc.

Maharashtra State Agricultural Produce Marketing Board is providing storage facility and loan facility on the pledge of cashew through Agriculture Produce Marketing Committee. If the regional office of Cashew Export Promotion Council extends support to the cashew processors it will be helpful to growers of cashew to get remunerative price to the produce earning more profitability to the cashew processors due higher prices in the export market and huge employment generation to the illiterate rural women folk.

Poonam Munjal Senior Fellow National Council of Applied Economic Research and Nijara Deka Associate Fellow National Council of Applied Economic Research. Views are personal.

Notable findings from the Woman’s Schedule component of the National Family Health Survey

The recently released compendium of Fact Sheets on various health and empowerment indicators under the fifth round of the National Family Health Surveys (NFHS-5) for the period 2019-21 give us something to shout about especially with regard to women’s empowerment and attainment of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 5) on empowering women and achieving gender equality.

The 14 States and UTs covered in the survey include a cross-section across the country including Arunachal Pradesh Chhattisgarh Haryana Jharkhand Madhya Pradesh Odisha Punjab Rajasthan Tamil Nadu Uttar Pradesh Uttarakhand Chandigarh NCT Delhi and Puducherry.

The indicators traditionally analysed in the Survey pertain to estimates pertaining to population health family planning and nutrition.

However what is remarkable about NFHS-5 are the notable findings from the Woman’s Schedule component of the Survey which covers a wide range of subjects including marriage fertility contraception children’s immunisations and healthcare nutrition reproductive health women’s empowerment and domestic violence.

Rise in Women’s Empowerment

The two key sections posing questions on gender-based indicators in the Survey include ‘Women’s Empowerment’ covering women aged 15-49 years and domestic violence focusing on women aged 18-49 years.

Under the Empowerment section each respondent that is a currently married woman was asked about the extent of her autonomy in three key household decisions about health care for herself making major household purchases and visits to her family and relatives.

Significantly 88.7 per cent of the women including as many as 91 per cent urban and 87.7 per cent rural women responded positively to this question showing a rise from the corresponding overall figure of 84 per cent recorded during the previous NFHS in 2015-16.

Among the other questions the opening and use of bank accounts by women showed the most promising results. A total of 78.6 per cent of the women in urban areas reported owning and independently operating their bank accounts going up from a much lower figure of 53 per cent in the previous survey.

There has also been a conspicuous rise in land ownership among women from 38.4 per cent to 43.3 per cent and in ownership and use of mobile phones from just about 45 to 54 per cent during the corresponding period. 

Persistence of Domestic Violence

A component that always attracts attention in any gender-based survey mainly because of its association with the respect that women enjoy within and outside their homes is that of the physical violence they are subjected to.

The data pertaining to gender-based or sexual violence for women aged 18-49 years in NFHS-5 is somewhat though not totally heartening as it shows a decline over NFHS-4 in the case of both spousal violence from 31.2 to 29.3 per cent and physical violence during pregnancy from 3.9 to 3.1 per cent.

However the celebration may be more guarded if these data are seen in correlation with comparable data pointing to a rise in domestic violence perpetrated against women during the nation-wide COVID lockdowns in 2020 and early 2021 which coincide with the period covered under NFHS-5.

For instance the number of complaints of domestic violence against women received by the National Commission for Women (NCW) rose sharply from 2960 in 2019 to 5297 in 2020. And in the first quarter of 2021 the NCW continued to receive over 2000 complaints every month of crimes against women with nearly one-fourth of them related to domestic violence.

More specifically the NCW data recorded 1463 complaints of domestic violence against women during the period January-March 2021. So is there a discrepancy between the NCW and NFHS-5 figures? 

At the State level the most impressive results on violence in NFHS-5 have been recorded by Chhattisgarh which showed declines in spousal violence from 36.8 to just over 20 per cent and in pregnancy-related violence from 4.9 to 0.9 per cent over the two survey periods.

Punjab and Haryana too have registered a significant fall in both categories of gender violence. In contrast the States of Jharkhand and Rajasthan are outliers with both recording a rise in violence during pregnancy the former from 2.8 to 3.1 per cent and the latter from 1.4 to 2.1 per cent during the corresponding periods.

The most alarming result has however been witnessed in Uttarakhand which has recorded a notable rise in both spousal and pregnancy-related violence.  

What Does IHDS Data Say?

When seen in totality however one wonders if the figures conceal more than they reveal. How far have we come from the findings of the nationally representative India Human Development Survey (IHDS)?

The IHDS which was conducted jointly by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) and University of Maryland in two rounds in 2004-05 and 2011-12 interviewed 41554 households in 1503 villages and 971 urban neighbourhoods across India.

The IHDS posed a direct question to women on whether they were regularly beaten by their husbands for any of the following reasons:  leaving home without notifying their husbands failing to pay dowry neglecting household chores not cooking acceptable meals and indulging in extra-marital affairs.

Although having relations with other men was the most frequent reason for the beatings as many as 30-40 per cent of the interviewees reported being subjected to violence for the other four reasons too.   

Significantly the IHDS results suggest that economic empowerment such as having a job and a reasonable income could mitigate the incidence of domestic violence against women and ensure better outcomes in their marital lives.

The findings of IHDS also indicate that the empowerment of women through inheritance and education which would enhance their ownership of property and wealth are likely to produce more desirable results and reduce the perpetration of violence and abuse against them.

Interestingly as mentioned above the gender module in NFHS-5 too shows an overall improvement in the indicators of female ownership of land and income earned from paid work and the possession and independent operation of bank accounts by women.

Although it may not be possible to establish a direct causal relation between female empowerment in terms of wealth and assets on one hand and better treatment of married women by their spouses on the other hand there seems to be an underlying association between these two outcomes.

As of now the findings in NFHS-5 do offer some reason for a muted celebration.   

Anupma Mehta is Editor at the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER). Views expressed in the article are personal. 

A reasonable bet for India’s growth would be about 7% or higher in the next few years. The baseline growth draws upon the average growth rate of about 6.75% in five pre-Covid years. In the near term monetary and fiscal policies are unlikely to be able to contribute to this growth estimate any more than they have in the past five years.

Economic growth is arguably the best antidote to poverty. Not only does it ensure the material well-being of those who directly participate in economic activity but it also generates fiscal revenues that allow public policy to benefit those left behind in income and wealth creation. Hence our policymakers’ fixation with the pace of India’s growth is well justified. So where will growth settle in the next 2-3 years?

Forecasts are known to suffer from large errors not because they tend to have an inherent systemic bias but due to the inability of forecasters to foresee shocks. These shocks are more commonly seen and are larger in developing economies than in advanced economies.

Look Back to Look Forward

A credible forecast exercise is underpinned by three factors. One the growth rate recorded in the past few years. Since economic structures policy environment and initial conditions evolve rather slowly the average growth rate in say the past five pre-Covid years should serve as a useful guide.

Two a realistic assessment of the direction and pace of key policy decisions including monetary fiscal regulatory and structural policies. This assessment should be done knowing that regulatory and structural policies impact growth with a 2-3 years’ lag. The goods and services tax (GST) which was introduced in 2017 took about three years for its design and tax collections to stabilise. Thus the growth forecast for the next few years should take into account the impact of both recent reforms and those likely to be introduced soon.

Third domestic and external shocks. Domestic shocks emanate from factors associated with macroeconomic or financial sector stability. External factors are the outcome of sharp revisions in global growth investment or trade outlook tightening of global liquidity – as evidenced by Wednesday’s announcement by the US Federal Reserve of doubling the pace on tapering – and elevated risk aversion.

Accounting for all these considerations a reasonable bet for India’s growth would be about 7% or higher in the next few years. The baseline growth draws upon the average growth rate of about 6.75% in five pre- Covid years. In the near term monetary and fiscal policies are unlikely to be able to contribute to this growth estimate any more than they have in the past five years.

Having been exceptionally accommodative in the past two years monetary and fiscal policies are unlikely to exhibit any additional room for supporting growth in the next couple of years. As normalisation gathers pace they may impart a slight negative impulse to growth. In contrast reforms undertaken in the past few years should yield a growth dividend. Additional contribution to growth may result if policy efforts continue to focus further on easing the regulatory burden and as wider structural reforms are implemented.

There are unlikely to be any unforeseen domestic risks. The risk of macroeconomic instability – a combination of high inflation high current account deficit (CAD) and high fiscal deficit – is low. Inflation remains range-bound under an inflation targeting framework and an independent central bank. CAD too is unlikely to bloat because of a runaway real exchange rate appreciation or a large terms-of-trade shock.

Fiscal deficit has breached past records during Covid and will hopefully regain sounder footing by the restoration of high nominal GDP growth and a medium-term fiscal framework. The financial sector is also likely to remain healthy. When Covid struck India this sector had already achieved a measure of stability through policy efforts over the last five years even as they have not yet succeeded in yielding a growth- supportive rate for bank credit.

Caution Tapered Road Ahead

The global tightening of liquidity is likely to have implications. But India has adequate policy room and a full toolkit – judicious use of foreign reserves the exchange rate monetary policy communication swap lines and the reforms narrative – to respond to these repercussions. Storms such as tapering have not lasted for more than 1-2 quarters in the past and can be handled so that they pass without inflicting any significant real damage on the economy.

A large increase in oil prices has traditionally mattered for India. But the impact of this shock has declined over time because of three factors: a shift of the economy towards the less oil-intensive services sector a shift toward renewables and greater energy-efficiency of economic activities.

The global growth and trade outlook too matters. Any decline in global demand has direct implications for India’s exports and growth. Yet with global trade having overcome challenges the world trade outlook seems robust especially if India can maintain a competitive exchange rate.

What then would be the preconditions to attain growth rates much higher than 7%? Whenever India has recorded rates higher than the trend growth rate it has been due to the two engines of private investment and exports reviving faster than they did in the past. The investment cycle seems to have started to revive due to ample liquidity in the system and improved availability of financing as well as the near completion of the decade-long deleveraging cycle.

As the global trade outlook improves it would pay to leverage the situation by enhancing India’s share in the global market for exports of both goods and services. Success in exports depends on competitiveness and the ability to penetrate new markets. Market access is determined by joint efforts of the private sector and the government.

There are lessons to be learnt from countries like Vietnam Cambodia and Bangladesh which did not just maintain but actually grew their export shares even in the middle of a slowing global market. Hence the key for India would be to actively scout for new export markets and continuously build the export potential of both goods and services.

The writer is Director General NCAER. Views are personal.

Fearing the risk of failure very little R&D funding goes towards innovative ventures and emerging technologies.

Over the last decade the government has been encouraging domestic firms to come up with innovations in product manufacturing and services. The focus of the NDA government’s programmes like ‘Make in India’ is not only on manufacturing in India but also producing goods that are indigenously designed.

To promote innovation policymakers have made attempts lately to increase India’s expenditure on R&D. It is now significantly below 2 per cent of GDP which is the benchmark value that most innovating countries spend on R&D.

While India ranked only 46th in the latest Global Innovation report it has climbed two spots over the previous year’s standing. And the performance is labelled ‘above expectations’ against the yardstick of the level of development. However Asian countries like Malaysia Vietnam Thailand and even some of the East European countries like Bulgaria Estonia Slovenia and Hungary scored above India. Thus the notion that Indian entrepreneurs lack innovation culture continues to hold good.

At a micro level though Indian entrepreneurs function effectively in implementing quick fixes commonly called “jugaad” which serve as low-cost innovative workarounds or solutions to problems.

While India seems to score low in innovation in multiple areas of technology there are two sectors that stand apart. These are technologies related to atomic energy and space science. Incidentally both these areas are under direct control of the Prime Minister’s Office and many of the standard rules of audit including Right to Information Act do not apply to them.

R&D centres

In the Indian context innovations are carried out primarily by public sector or government R&D centres. Of late however a number of R&D centres have been set up by multinationals (MNCs) and funding for them has been increasing. Elsewhere in the world the private sector particularly MNCs plays a significant role in ushering innovation. Why the same is not happening in the R&D centres of MNCs in India?

As fDi Markets database indicates of the three heads of R&D — Design Development and Testing (DDT) Education and Training (E&T) and Core R&D — support for Core R&D one that focusses on making real innovations is limited in India. Thus one cannot depend much on private FDI to help India have a significant presence on the innovation map.The R&D in public sector or government labs is governed by standard rules (audit Right to Information Act etc) even though at best only 5 per cent of the attempted innovations results in success. This is probably true in other countries as well. Thus one needs to understand that experimenting with innovative ventures can be a total failure.

Typically the committee members responsible for allocating funds for innovation are government employees. So there is always a chance of them being questioned by the CAG (Comptroller and Auditor General) if there is recurrent failure of innovative ventures. Hence it is not surprising if they are risk averse and do not support blue sky innovative ventures. The chances of failures are low/limited in incremental innovation and so most of the funding of public R&D centres goes for same. As Indian Space Research Organisation is not governed by mundane rules the progress of Indian space research has been amazing and on a par with those of developed countries.

Hence to imbibe a culture of innovation the rules need to be amended and failures need to taken in their stride. The gains from one blue sky innovation would be enough to compensate the losses in all other cases. India has never really made a forward looking strategic plan to channel R&D expenditure on emerging technologies. As a result India is usually a late entrant to a new technology. By the time India puts its imprint on a technology the world has moved up the technology ladder or the technology has moved in a different direction.

Thus Indian firms find little space to enjoy the gains of innovation. By contrast industrialised countries including Korea and Taiwan adopt a strategic plan based on Technological Forecasting exercise to direct their R&D expenditure.

Unfortunately India has never attempted a serious endeavour of this kind barring half-hearted attempt by the Technology Information Forecasting and Assessment Council. So it is not surprising that India has not been able to leapfrog on the technology front.

The writer is Professor NCAER. Views are personal.