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Their survey index of firms dipped in JanApril to a 10quarter low; however political confidence measure rose

India Inc’s confidence in the economy and their businesses fell to a 10quarter low in the threemonth period ending April this year showed a survey of the National Council of Applied Economic Research.

Their Business Confidence Index (BCI) declined to 121.6 points in the latest round 6.7 per cent lower than the 130.3 points in the quarter ended January. However the Political Confidence Index (PCI) rose 2.1 per cent to a fourquarter high of 139.2 points. However it was nowhere near the peak of 183 points witnessed for the Narendra Modi government in the quarter ended January 2015.

Three of the four components of the BCI showed a deterioration in sentiment between January and April; one component had increased marginally. BCI was mainly driven down by deterioration in sentiment of the component on whether the ‘financialposition of firms will improve in the next six months’. In April only 43.8 per cent of the companies thought so versus 59.8 per cent in January. As many as 44.8 per cent of the companies thought there would be no change

All the five sectors showed deterioration in business sentiment in April over January indicating the decline in sentiment was wide­ranging. However the fall in BCI was moderate in the case of services and consumer durables (by 1.4 and 2.9 per cent respectively) whereas it fell sharply by 9.5 9.3 and 8.8 per cent respectively in the intermediate goods consumer non­durables and capital goods sectors.

The eastern region showed a significant improvement (11.2 per cent) in BCI the western (minus 15.8 per cent) and southern (minus 17.9 per cent) ones a sharp dip and the northern region (minus 0.5 per cent) hardly any change quarter on quarter.

All groups of companies recorded a decline in business sentiment except those in which annual turnover was less than Rs 1 crore which showed a marginal increase of 0.3 per cent between January and April. The biggest decline in BCI of 11.4 per cent was in firms with annual turnover of Rs 1–10 crore.

All groups of companies across type of ownership registered a decline. The largest in BCI of 7.4 per cent was at partnership or individual­owned companies.

Overall sentiments regarding production domestic sales exports imports of raw materials and pre­tax profits continued to remain subdued in April over January. Expectations regarding the costs of raw materials labour and electricity remained muted. Hence after showing positive signs of turning in January the sentiment at labour markets again took a turn for the worse as a result of which these continued to remain subdued.

Even as PCI rose over the earlier quarter the outlook was mixed — expectations improved in the case of four components and worsened in four others. The components for which more positive responses were recorded were ‘managing a conducive political climate’ ‘managing the exchange rate’ ‘managing unemployment’ and ‘managing overall economic growth’. A decline was recorded in positive responses on ‘managing government finances’ ‘external trade negotiations’ ‘pushing the economic reforms forward’ and ‘managing inflation’.

Almost 77 percent of Indian parents expect to live with their sons in old age while seven percent want to live with their daughters according to the India Human Development Survey (IHDS) conducted jointly by researchers from University of Maryland and National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) New Delhi.

These are the findings from the IHDS-2 (2011-12) data-set covering a representative sample of 41554 households across 33 states and union territories in both rural and urban areas.

In Haryana the state with India’s lowest child sex ratio (834 females per 1000 males) 90 percent of respondents said they would prefer to live with their sons in old age rather than their daughters.

Maharashtra was next with 85 percent of parents saying they expected support from sons.

Sons vs daughters: Many Indians want at least one daughter.

While 73 percent of the people surveyed said they should ideally have one daughter 11 percent said they should ideally have two daughters.

While as many as 60 percent said they ideally wanted one son 26 percent said they wanted two sons.

While more people (73 percent) want at least one daughter when asked preferences for an extra child only six said they wanted daughters.

The survey was based on indirect questions to test people’s attitudes. Some questions asked: How many sons or daughters would they ideally prefer to have? If they were to have an extra child what sex would they prefer?

IndiaSpend plotted the preference for sons as the extra child with the sex ratio across Indian states.

Maharashtra has a low child sex ratio (894 females per 1000 males) and a high preference for a son (39 percent) for an extra child.

Sons as support for the declining years.

The main reason Indian parents prefer sons is that Indians expect to depend on them in their old age.

More than three-fourths (77 percent) of the respondents said they expect to live with their sons when old. Only 16 percent Indians said they would consider living with their daughters.

States in the south see higher percentages than the national average.

Tripura has the highest percentage of parents (72 percent) preferring to live with daughters in their old age followed by Tamil Nadu (17 percent).

The perception that parents can live with daughters has improved over the last seven years: Asked if they would consider living with daughters 14 percent said yes during a survey in 2004-05; 16 percent said yes in 2011-12.

Can’t ask daughters for money.

As many as 74 percent of Indians expect sons to support them financially during old age. Only 18 percent said they may consider taking money from daughters in old age.

India’s GDP is estimated to grow at 7.6 per cent in 2015–16 and 7.7 per cent in 2016– 17 due to a favourable monsoon the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) said. The Delhi-based think-tank said on Saturday the numbers mark significant revision upwards from its January 2016 forecast when it had predicted a 7.4 per cent growth for 2015-16 as well as for 2016-17. The current forecast is mainly due to monsoon prediction. But it also sounded a note of caution by stating “It is hard to conjecture whether the economy has finally reached the tipping point where positives outweigh the negatives.”

Exports contracting

Exports are expected to contract by 1.6 per cent while wholesale price inflation is projected to grow at 0.9 per centfor 2016-17. Current Account Balance as a percentage of GDP is expected to contract by 1 per cent. Fiscal deficit of the Centre as a percentage of GDP is forecast at 3.5 per cent for 2016-17. The agriculture sector witnessed feeble average growth rate of 0.5 per cent in 2014-15 and 2015-16 due to drought in two successive years. The manufacturing sector after showing robust growth in the second quarter slowed down consistently in the third and fourth quarters. The growth in Index of Industrial Production (IIP) slowed to 2.4 per cent in 2015-16 from 2.8 per cent in 2014-15. In the fourth quarter manufacturing was in “recession” (-1.1%) and the overall IIP barely grew 0.2 per cent it said.

Nascent recovery

“On the industry front emerging trends suggest a nascent recovery however a discordant note was struck by the persistence of volatility in the capital goods sector and the poor growth in manufacturing” NCAER said

Even as select indicators show improvement it is much too early to conclude that the economy is on course to a full-fledged recovery as the improvement is not sufficiently broad-based.

What is indisputable however it said is that the outlook is once again upbeat and barring any accidents growth should pick up in the remaining three years of the present government’s tenure the NCAER said.

It red-flagged the much slower growth in services exports notably software and business service exports which together account for approximately 50 per cent of the total service exports.

Inflation ranged between 3.66 per cent in August 2015 and 5.7 per cent in January 2016

NCAER red-flagged slower growth in services exports notably in IT and business services

Economic think-tank NCAER today projected India’s economic growth rate to improve marginally to 7.7 per cent in 2016-17 against the backdrop of IMD’s forecast of better monsoon rains this year.

Economic think-tank NCAER today projected India’s economic growth rate to improve marginally to 7.7 per cent in 2016-17 against the backdrop of IMD’s forecast of better monsoon rains this year.

The agriculture sector has witnessed feeble growth on account of drought for two successive years. The average rate of growth in the agricultural and allied sectors’ GDP for 2014-15 and 2015-16 has been a low 0.5 per cent.

Two consecutive years of sub-par monsoon have had a significant impact on the output of both food as well as non-food crops.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted monsoon for 2016-17 at 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of 5 per cent “which may have a positive impact on agriculture and thereby the economy” NCAER said in its Quarterly Review of the Economy.

“NCAER’s annual model for GDP market prices at 2011–12 prices estimates GDP growth rate of 7.6 per cent for 2015 – 2016 and forecasts it at 7.7 per cent for 2016–17” the economic think tank said in a statement.

It further said growth in exports and imports year-on-year is projected at (-) 1.6 per cent and (-) 0.6 per cent respectively for 2016-17.

Inflation (WPI) is projected at 0.9 per cent for the fiscal. Current Account Balance as a percentage of GDP is projected at (-) 1 per cent and fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP at 3.5 per cent for 2016-17.

NCAER the National Council of Applied Economic Research was set up in 1956 at the behest of Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru to inform policy choices for both public and private sectors.

The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) has scaled up India’s economic growth projection to 7.6 per cent for 2015-16 from the earlier 7.4 per cent. It pegged the growth marginally higher at 7.7 per cent for 2016-17 due to a pickup in the agriculture sector on the back of expected normal monsoon.

“NCAER’s annual model for gross domestic product (GDP) at 2011-12 prices estimates GDP growth rate at 7.6 per cent for 2015-2016 and forecasts it at 7.7 per cent for 2016-17” the council said in its latest quarterly review. In its previous quarterly review it had projected the economy to grow by 7.4 per cent in 2014-15. Its new projections are in line with the government expectations for 2015-16. The data would be released by this month end. NCAER predicted exports to contract 1.6 per cent in 2016-17 which would be their third year of decline. Despite the agriculture sector expected to perform better NCAER believed that the economy would grow just one percentage point higher in the current financial year than that of 2015-16. The government expects the economy to grow in the range of 7-7.75 per cent but said the growth may turn out to be higher if the farm sector performs well. The council said the agriculture sector has witnessed feeble growth on account of drought for two successive years. The average rate of growth in the agricultural and allied sectors’ for 2014-15 and 2015-16 has been a low 0.5 per cent. Two consecutive years of sub-par monsoon have had a significant impact on the output of both food as well as non-food crops.

NCAER pegs GDP growth for FY16 at 7.6% The Indian Meteorological Department has predicted monsoon for 2016-17 at 106 per cent of the long period average (LPA). However in the industrial sector the manufacturing sector after showing robust growth in the second quarter has slowed down consistently in the third and fourth quarter. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) recorded a 2.4 per cent rise in 2015-16 against 2.8 per cent in 2014-15. In the fourth quarter IIP manufacturing was in a “recession” (-1.1 per cent) and the overall IIP grew by 0.2 per cent on a y-o-y basis. In the fourth quarter capital goods contracted by 15.4 per cent and consumer non-durables by 3.9 per cent on a y-o-y basis.