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India’s GDP is estimated to grow at 7.6 per cent in 2015–16 and 7.7 per cent in 2016– 17 due to a favourable monsoon the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) said. The Delhi-based think-tank said on Saturday the numbers mark significant revision upwards from its January 2016 forecast when it had predicted a 7.4 per cent growth for 2015-16 as well as for 2016-17. The current forecast is mainly due to monsoon prediction. But it also sounded a note of caution by stating “It is hard to conjecture whether the economy has finally reached the tipping point where positives outweigh the negatives.”

Exports contracting

Exports are expected to contract by 1.6 per cent while wholesale price inflation is projected to grow at 0.9 per centfor 2016-17. Current Account Balance as a percentage of GDP is expected to contract by 1 per cent. Fiscal deficit of the Centre as a percentage of GDP is forecast at 3.5 per cent for 2016-17. The agriculture sector witnessed feeble average growth rate of 0.5 per cent in 2014-15 and 2015-16 due to drought in two successive years. The manufacturing sector after showing robust growth in the second quarter slowed down consistently in the third and fourth quarters. The growth in Index of Industrial Production (IIP) slowed to 2.4 per cent in 2015-16 from 2.8 per cent in 2014-15. In the fourth quarter manufacturing was in “recession” (-1.1%) and the overall IIP barely grew 0.2 per cent it said.

Nascent recovery

“On the industry front emerging trends suggest a nascent recovery however a discordant note was struck by the persistence of volatility in the capital goods sector and the poor growth in manufacturing” NCAER said

Even as select indicators show improvement it is much too early to conclude that the economy is on course to a full-fledged recovery as the improvement is not sufficiently broad-based.

What is indisputable however it said is that the outlook is once again upbeat and barring any accidents growth should pick up in the remaining three years of the present government’s tenure the NCAER said.

It red-flagged the much slower growth in services exports notably software and business service exports which together account for approximately 50 per cent of the total service exports.

Inflation ranged between 3.66 per cent in August 2015 and 5.7 per cent in January 2016

NCAER red-flagged slower growth in services exports notably in IT and business services

Economic think-tank NCAER today projected India’s economic growth rate to improve marginally to 7.7 per cent in 2016-17 against the backdrop of IMD’s forecast of better monsoon rains this year.

Economic think-tank NCAER today projected India’s economic growth rate to improve marginally to 7.7 per cent in 2016-17 against the backdrop of IMD’s forecast of better monsoon rains this year.

The agriculture sector has witnessed feeble growth on account of drought for two successive years. The average rate of growth in the agricultural and allied sectors’ GDP for 2014-15 and 2015-16 has been a low 0.5 per cent.

Two consecutive years of sub-par monsoon have had a significant impact on the output of both food as well as non-food crops.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted monsoon for 2016-17 at 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of 5 per cent “which may have a positive impact on agriculture and thereby the economy” NCAER said in its Quarterly Review of the Economy.

“NCAER’s annual model for GDP market prices at 2011–12 prices estimates GDP growth rate of 7.6 per cent for 2015 – 2016 and forecasts it at 7.7 per cent for 2016–17” the economic think tank said in a statement.

It further said growth in exports and imports year-on-year is projected at (-) 1.6 per cent and (-) 0.6 per cent respectively for 2016-17.

Inflation (WPI) is projected at 0.9 per cent for the fiscal. Current Account Balance as a percentage of GDP is projected at (-) 1 per cent and fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP at 3.5 per cent for 2016-17.

NCAER the National Council of Applied Economic Research was set up in 1956 at the behest of Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru to inform policy choices for both public and private sectors.

The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) has scaled up India’s economic growth projection to 7.6 per cent for 2015-16 from the earlier 7.4 per cent. It pegged the growth marginally higher at 7.7 per cent for 2016-17 due to a pickup in the agriculture sector on the back of expected normal monsoon.

“NCAER’s annual model for gross domestic product (GDP) at 2011-12 prices estimates GDP growth rate at 7.6 per cent for 2015-2016 and forecasts it at 7.7 per cent for 2016-17” the council said in its latest quarterly review. In its previous quarterly review it had projected the economy to grow by 7.4 per cent in 2014-15. Its new projections are in line with the government expectations for 2015-16. The data would be released by this month end. NCAER predicted exports to contract 1.6 per cent in 2016-17 which would be their third year of decline. Despite the agriculture sector expected to perform better NCAER believed that the economy would grow just one percentage point higher in the current financial year than that of 2015-16. The government expects the economy to grow in the range of 7-7.75 per cent but said the growth may turn out to be higher if the farm sector performs well. The council said the agriculture sector has witnessed feeble growth on account of drought for two successive years. The average rate of growth in the agricultural and allied sectors’ for 2014-15 and 2015-16 has been a low 0.5 per cent. Two consecutive years of sub-par monsoon have had a significant impact on the output of both food as well as non-food crops.

NCAER pegs GDP growth for FY16 at 7.6% The Indian Meteorological Department has predicted monsoon for 2016-17 at 106 per cent of the long period average (LPA). However in the industrial sector the manufacturing sector after showing robust growth in the second quarter has slowed down consistently in the third and fourth quarter. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) recorded a 2.4 per cent rise in 2015-16 against 2.8 per cent in 2014-15. In the fourth quarter IIP manufacturing was in a “recession” (-1.1 per cent) and the overall IIP grew by 0.2 per cent on a y-o-y basis. In the fourth quarter capital goods contracted by 15.4 per cent and consumer non-durables by 3.9 per cent on a y-o-y basis.

Collector Babu A. made a presentation at an event organised by World Bank Group and NCAER

: The success achieved by Krishna district in various digital initiatives came in for appreciation at ‘The India launch of Digital dividends: World Development Report 2016’ – Roundtable: How can India best reap its digital dividends?’ organised in New Delhi on May 10.

District Collector Babu A. got the opportunity to give an insight into the innovative steps taken by the district administration for rendering better services to the public with the help of advanced Information and Communication Technologies (ICT). The event was jointly organised by the World Bank Group (WBG) and the National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER). Mr. Babu gave a detailed account of the Aadhaar-enabled Direct Benefit Transfer e-POS (e-Point-of-Sale) and other schemes implemented in the district to a gathering that comprised Union Minister for Communications and IT Ravi Shankar Prasad WBG Country Director Onno Ruhl Lead Economist Deepak Mishra and Economic Geographer Uwe Deichmann and NCAER Director General Shekhar Shah.

On the occasion Mr. Babu said the e-POS scheme that helped in curbing leakage of funds in the Public Distribution System earned global acclaim for Krishna district.

The payment of social security pensions through Micro ATMs set up by IDFC Bank was another project that became a role model.

Christian-dominated Mizoram – 87 percent of the population is Christian – has the most inter-caste marriages in India a nation where 95 percent of Indians marry within their caste according to a 2016 report from the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) a New Delhi-based think-tank.

Meghalaya and Sikkim followed Mizoram with 46 percent and 38 percent of inter-caste marriages according to The Indian Human Development Survey (IHDS-II) based on nationwide surveys conducted between 2011-12. It was put together by the University of Maryland and NCAER. A representative sample of 41554 households contacted for the study was spread across 33 states and union territories in rural and urban India.

The three north-eastern states were followed by Muslim-dominated Jammu and Kashmir (35 percent) and Gujarat (13 percent).

The data belies the perception that with modernity and economic progress traditional barriers of caste have broken down.

The caste system is an ancient relic of a social hierarchy once based on division of labour. People are born into their caste. They cannot change it.

How do people marry in the states of India?

As many as 95 percent women surveyed said their husbands’ caste was the same as their’s. This was the question NCAER used to determine the proportion of inter-caste marriages: “Is your husband’s family the same caste as your native family?”

In Madhya Pradesh almost all (99 percent) people were married in their own caste followed by Himachal Pradesh and Chhattisgarh both at 98 percent.

Indians are legally allowed to marry outside their caste. A law on inter-caste marriage was passed more than 50 years ago but those who do are still threatened or attacked often by their own families.

Change is slow but it is coming

As many as 27 percent of respondents said they knew people in their communities who married outside their caste. In cities this number was 36 percent.

The IHDS-II surveyors asked respondents: “Do you know anyone in your community who has had an inter-caste marriage?”

People are more forthcoming with perception of others than information about themselves the researchers found.

“Think of a village pradhan (chief) whom everyone knows? there is only one pradhan in a village. Knowing someone particularly someone who has engaged in ‘unusual’ behavior like inter-caste marriage is always going to be higher than one doing it oneself” Sonalde Desai a demographer senior fellow at NCAER and professor of Sociology at University of Maryland told IndiaSpend. “I am surprised that only one in four individuals knows someone (in an) inter-caste marriage.”