This study is targeted at bringing the focus of high-level policy attention on the urgent need to revamp India’s FDI statistical system for an accurate view of Foreign Direct Investment inflows a / outflows and their impact.
The study will achieve the following objectives:
- Strengthening FDI data frameworks in adherence to international conventions.
- Streamlining structural and regulatory procedures to foster public private partnerships, opening market
access and strengthening business networks and models for improved efficacy and efficiency.
- Regulatory environments and institutional structures that promote innovation leading to new
opportunities for business.
- Building and amplifying the economic evidence base to demonstrate the benefits to India in supporting
open trade.
NCAER computed the Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) Daman and Diu for the years 2008-09 to 2012-13. The UT is dominated by registered manufacturing. Its per capita income is approximately five times that of India. However, the growth of the economy had faltered during the period of the study, with slowing growth in manufacturing. Share of manufacturing in GSDP has declined from 82.8 per cent in 2008-9 to 77.7 per cent in 2012-13. On the other hand, share of Financing, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services increased from 4.6 per cent to 10.4 per cent between the two periods. Agriculture and allied activities have very little presence in the UT with around one per cent share in GSDP. The UT has showed comparative advantage in the following industries including manufacturing of electric motors, generators, transformers and electricity distribution and control apparatus; manufacture of wiring and wiring devices; spinning, weaving and finishing of textiles; manufacture of wearing apparel, except fur apparel and; manufacture of paper and paper products. With the exception of manufacture of wearing apparel (except fur apparel), labour productivity has fallen over time for all the sectors.
New Delhi: The weatherman is getting better at his job. Or so the farmers feel.
Reliability of weather information has improved in the past two to four years according to nine out of ten farmers in six states and a Union Territory.
The only two exceptions were Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh where more farmers said the reliability of weather forecasts by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had not improved.
In 2014 the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) surveyed 918 agricultural households in 35 districts in partnership with the Reliance Foundation. The ministry of earth sciences which commissioned the report published it in August last year. Mint has seen a copy of the report.
The results showed that overall roughly 57% of the farmers felt there was an improvement in timeliness of the forecast. However a significant segment of farmers in Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat were not satisfied with it.
Almost 60% of the farmers in both states did not think the reliability of the weather information had improved in the past four years.
“There used to be jokes about weather forecasts and how inaccurate they were. From that stage farmers saying this is the best thing that happened is a great improvement” said R. Venkatesan one of the authors of the report. “The benefits are significant even for other stakeholders such as the navy fishermen and oil rigs who can save great expenses if there is accurate weather forecast” he added.
More than two-thirds of the farmers felt that the accuracy frequency and utility of forecasts have improved.
Last month the earth sciences ministry said there had been a significant improvement in IMD’s short and medium-range forecasts. The critical success index improved by 46% and false alarm rate fell by 77% in 2013-15 over 2002-12 for heavy rainfall warnings during the monsoon season. The ministry attributed the success to improved forecast models after the commissioning of high-performance computing systems.
“Accuracy has definitely improved in the past few years. One can now get location-specific forecasts for up to 20-25 km which is much more useful for stakeholders especially farmers” said Venkatesan.
The report also analysed the benefit of weather prediction to various crops and concluded that wheat paddy sugarcane and cotton are four principal crops that have the potential to use the weather prediction information of the government forecaster to generate an annual economic profit of Rs.42000 crore.
A report prepared by the National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER) for the agriculture ministry has pegged India’s wheat production in 2015-16 would be 85 million tonnes (mt) — 1.5 mt less than the final estimate of 2014-15. This is in stark contrast with the government’s estimate that production in 2015-16 would be 7.3 mt more than last year’s.
The NCAER report released in January also said that India might not export any wheat in 2016-17 marketing year. However because of lower procurement and strong purchases by private traders from October 2015 to March 2016 the total wheat stock in the Central pool might fall to 15 mt by April which would be 2 mt less than the stocks during the year-ago period.
According to the report 2015-16 rabi rice production would be lower than the 2014-15 production due to poor post-monsoon rains and lower water levels in reservoirs.
Rabi rice exports are forecast to decline to 9 mt from 11.8 mt in marketing year 2014-15 it added.
p;he report noted that this year like last year external factors would remain less conducive to Indian agricultural exports.
On pulses the NCAER report paints a grim picture. It said the total pulses production in 2015-16 (both kharif and rabi) would be 16.6 mt which would be 0.55 mt less than the final production of 2014-15.
This means that according to NCAER India’s domestic pulses production would fall for the third consecutive yea
To offset the low production the think tank assumes the import of pulses will rise to 5.5 mt in 2015-16 up from 4.5 mt last year.
On vegetables the NCAER study showed that potato production in 2015-16 would be lower at 44.1 mt down from 45.9 mt in 2014-15. This could lead to a spike in prices. Onion price is expected to rise to 20.6 mt up from 18.7 mt a year ago.
On sugar the report said that with an opening stock of 9.6 mt and expected domestic production of 27 mt in 2015-16 sugar season that started in October any significant uptick in prices is not expected.
India’s milk production could rise but meeting the Centre’s target of 160 mt in 2015-16 could be tough due to over-supply in the market. On global commodity markets the NCAER report showed food markets would remain well-stocked and less volatile.
Overall the report showed the prospects of India’s agriculture sector wouldn’t improve much in 2016 compared to 2015.
New Delhi Feb 18 (PTI) Railways freight volume is likely to grow by 2.1 per cent in the next fiscal as compared to its one per cent growth in 2015-16 according to a study.
The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) study on factors impacting railway freight traffic in India presented to Railway Minister Suresh Prabhu said the doubling of the growth rate is possible without any major policy shifts.
Railways had asked the economic think-tank NCAER for the study ahead of the Railway budget 2016-17 to focus on Railway’s freight business and to identify the reasons for the recent plateauing of its growth to around one per cent per annum for bulk freight commodities including coal iron ore cement steel fertilisers and foodgrains and container traffic.
The NCAER study also estimates the likely volume demand in 2016-17 for railway freight. Freight accounts for nearly two-thirds of railway’s revenue spread over two broad categories bulk and other goods according to a release.
Railway’s freight business is estimated to have grown at about one per cent in 2015-16. The NCAER study finds that there are several reasons for the nearly flat growth in IR’s freight business in 2015-16. The Indian economy has been passing through a difficult and challenging time since 2014-15.
Deficient rainfall and two drought years in a row have lowered rural demand. Industry too remains sluggish due to low investment demand.
Alongside industry growth in gross value added in 2015 16 for the mining and quarrying sector railway’s largest client is estimated to be 6.9 per cent as compared to 10.8 per cent in 2014 15.Crucial components of core infrastructure coal steel cement and electricity also showed a decline in their growth rate for April December 2015 as compared to their performance in 2014 15.
Railways freight charges have gone up by 67 per cent in the last five years while there has been a decline in fuel prices. Road transport for freight has now become much cheaper than rail.
Among the policy reforms suggested by the NCAER study are correcting the fare/freight ratio; providing for periodic reviews of surcharges like the port congestion surcharge and busy season surcharge; steps to encourage short lead traffic; a review of the dual pricing for iron ore and review of transportation product design to cater to market requirements of smaller parcel sizes.
Published in: PTI February 18 2016
