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Highest incidence of trips is seen in J&K with 836 per 100 households followed by Himachal. Delhi at the bottom.

NEW DELHI: Indians are going places—travelling fast and furious. Domestic tourism is not only driving economy it is also an indicator of consumption pattern of the country’s citizens.

A tourism ministry study has put the Sikhs at the top of the heap when it comes to making most number of trips by a person in a year followed by the Jains.

“The overall average number of overnight trips made by a person was estimated at 2.09. The averages differed among the religions. The average overnight trips by the Sikhs was (2.35) followed by Jains (2.19) Hindus (2.13) Christians (1.94) Muslims (1.82)” says the study conducted by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) for the ministry.

New Delhi: The average number of nights spent on overnight trips was about three for the rural population and about four for the urban. However the average duration of overnight trips undertaken by the urban population varied from two nights in case of shopping trips to 5.6 in case of medical trips.

As far as spending is concerned Jains have the highest per­trip expenditure (`2444 per trip) among all religions followed by Christians (`1740) Hindus (`965) Sikhs (`906) and Muslims (`879).

The report of the study ‘How households of different socio­economic background spend on tourism’ submitted recently relied on the 2008­09 National Sample Survey (NSS) data to make its observations.

“The average number of overnight trips made by a rural person was estimated at 2.10 while for urban person it was 2.07. Incidence of overnight trips is observed as the highest among Sikh persons in rural areas (2.37) and among Jains (2.34) in urban areas. While analysing incidence of trips by age groups of the visitors highest trips per person is made by those belonging to 30­59 years of age­groups and this is followed by persons belonging to 15­29 years age­group” the report says.

The study took into account domestic travel for various purposes ranging from social reasons religious medical and leisure.

The urban Indian on an average made overnight trips of two nights for shopping; the number was 5.6 for medical trips. In rural areas the least average duration was for shopping­related trips (1.5 nights) while the highest average duration pertained to leisure trips (4.3 nights).

“In India shopping is the most important item of expenditure for Scheduled Tribe Scheduled Caste and Other Backward Class” the report states.

Legislators senior officials and managers among all professionals record the highest per overnight trip expenditure in India of about `2294.9.

In another study NCAER took into account how states performed on the domestic tourism front. Average trips made by a household are four during a year.

The highest incidence of trips is seen in Jammu & Kashmir with 836 per 100 households followed by Himachal Pradesh with 769 trips per 100 households. Delhi is at the bottom with only 232 average number of trips per 100 households.

On an average at all­India level contribution of social trips to total trips works out to be 74 per cent. This is followed by religious trips and medical trips which account for 10 per cent and 6.2 per cent respectively of the total overnight trips. Business and leisure trips together account for only 5.3 per cent of the total trips.

Leisure or holiday is among the least popular purposes of domestic overnight trips across all the states. The highest share (6.7 per cent) of leisure trips in total is seen in Delhi.

Social trips are undertaken the most in Uttar Pradesh while Maharashtra Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu together account for 44 per cent of total religious trips. Tamil Nadu is the most sought­after by domestic leisure tourists (12.5 per cent of total interstate leisure trips) according to the tourism ministry study.

Jains spend highest per trip with `2444 followed by Christians (Rs 1740) Hindus (Rs 965) Sikhs (Rs 906) and Muslims (Rs 879).

Mumbai: Is it true that people tend to marry within their profession or occupation? Data available from the Indian Human Development Survey (IHDS-II) suggests so if we analyse marriages within and across broad occupation categories. For example among those female teachers who were married 19% were married to fellow teachers (CHART 1A) the highest among the 14 occupation categories we constructed. This pattern holds for male teachers too—14% of male teachers are married to fellow teachers (CHART 1B) more than any other group if we exclude housewives. In fact for all the male teachers whose spouses were not housewives 55% of them were married to a fellow teacher.

There is little doubt that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is associated with the diffusion of global best practices professionalism technology and work culture essential for market efficiency and competitiveness.

In the presence of internationally competitive environment ensured by FDI the domestic agencies are also motivated towards changes that bring efficiency. Studies have shown positive impact of FDI on economic growth and poverty reduction in several countries.

In the case of agriculture conditioned FDI up to 100% is already permitted in activities including floriculture horticulture apiculture and cultivation of vegetables and mushrooms under controlled conditions; development and production of seeds and planting material; animal husbandry (including breeding of dogs) pisciculture aquaculture under controlled conditions; Services related to agro and allied sectors and tea sector. As far as retail trading is concerned 100% FDI is permitted in single brand and 51% FDI is permitted in Multi-Brand Retail Trading (MBRT) with certain conditions.

These policies have yielded good results in attracting FDI. Since April 2000 the cumulative FDI in food processing including vegetable oil and vanaspati has increased from $1.366 billion (1.08% share in total FDI) in December 2010 to $6696.82 billion (2.81% share in total FDI) in December 2015. However during the same period FDI in the Agriculture Services had a modest increase from $1.54 billion (1.22% share) to $1.740 billion only (0.73% share).

Going further the Finance Minister while presenting the General Budget (2016-17) has made an announcement of allowing 100% FDI in marketing of food products that are produced and manufactured in India. It is believed that FDI in marketing of farm produce will provide impetus to food processing sector and it will also increase employment and income opportunities for farmers.

Why such a move of the government is important for the farm sector can be appreciated if we look at the macroeconomic data across related sectors.

Problems to be dealt with

For the last several years the economic situation in the primary agriculture sector has been marked with miniscule investment poor output growth and increasing labour cost. Huge expenditures made through MGNREGA have not translated into sustainable development of the sector. The real value added in agriculture and allied sector has inched from Rs 15.02 lakh crore in 2010-11 to Rs 15.84 lakh crore in 2014-15 at about 1.8% annual real growth. The crop sector which forms the bulk of the sector’s output has remained almost stagnant. Most of the gains are due to export led growth in fisheries and livestock based segments.

While many would like to put onus of the plight of farmers on weather conditions like draught it cannot be less emphasised that the real gross capital formation in agriculture sector has contracted from Rs 2.74 lakh crore in 2010-11 to Rs 2.54 lack crore in 2014-15 at almost -2.2% annually in real terms.

The value added in manufacturing of food products beverages and tobacco decreased from Rs 1.68 lakh crore to Rs 1.65 lakh crore in real terms during the same period. Thus one can say that the entire production system of the agriculture sector has remained under stress for several years.

In contrast the real value added in trade repair hotels and restaurants services which includes intermediary services like transport wholesale market/mandi unorganised/organised retail increased from Rs 8.84 lakh crore to Rs 11.63 lakh crore recording an annual real growth of 9.16%.

There is robust growth in trade of agriculture products during 2010-11 to 2014-15. Imports increased from $12.3 billion to $19.83 billion growing at 12.29% annually while export has increased from $21.4 billion to $37.38 billion recording an annual real growth of 13.93%. Domestic consumption of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased from Rs 15.00 lakh crore to Rs 16.5 lakh crore recording an annual real growth of 3.88%.

Clearly there is a perceptible difference in the growth of production sector and trading sector related to agriculture produce. High value addition in trading and almost stagnant value addition in production reflects inefficiency in procurement and marketing system of agriculture produce and it’s processing which is also reflected in the wide gap in wholesale prices and retail prices of vegetable and other food products. There is asymmetry in price formation price discovery and cost of cultivation.

Swaminathan formula

Realising these problems successive governments have tried to find a solution through the system of Minimum Support Price (MSP). Recently a progressive system of MSP (generally known as Swaminathan formula) has been proposed to keep it at least 50% above the cost of production. However this arrangement is less likely to yield a balanced outcome as traders would tend to pass the entire price increase to consumers. Thus while farmers may benefit from such a progressive MSP consumers would still suffer due to additional inflation. An efficient market that reduces trade and transport cost would still be essential for political sustainability of gains extended to farmers.

It is in this context that promoting organised marketing with FDI support aimed at reduction in cost of intermediation may be a preferred policy. This arrangement is likely to motivate cultivation and processing of high value products through concepts of contract farming. Involvement of corporate sector in marketing agriculture produce would also help in unifying the market at national level and solve the problems of fragmented farming and storage.

This can be further strengthened through application of modern technologies in production process and information sharing which could bring markets to the doorstep of farmers. Storage and transportation of perishable products is another area that can be benefitted with the introduction of state of art practices. It may be noted that the problem of agriculture sector are complex involving provisioning and efficient management of resource and inputs such as irrigation water soil health seed quality fertilizer pesticides among others which need financial and technical assistance for improving productivity.

Need to address concerns 

It is also important to allay the concerns of opponents of FDI who tend to argue that the entry of Multi National Organisations would harm small traders. However the macroeconomic data presented earlier shows that value added in trading far outperform the value added at farm and processing level in agriculture and allied sector. Therefore a middle ground needs to be obtained.

Studies have shown that while it may be true that introduction of organised retailing tend to displace unorganised retail but such developments have clear benefits for the consumers in terms of price and variety; and provide greater employment opportunities for educated youth. Interestingly it is also found to be significant that displaced unorganised retailers quickly find ground and start earning even more profit at newer places in expanding cities (see for example several papers by Kalirajan and Singh). Thus the concerns raised against FDI in retail seem to be based on weak grounds.

The benefits of organised retail have been reported from several parts of India both in terms of increases in employment and remuneration. However there are some concerns also with respect to contracts and its enforcement inconsistencies in pricing process of product grading payment terms etc.

Substantial market power is demonstrated by the corporate purchaser as farmers do not have sellers power. For example once a vegetable product is grown it has to be sold. So the competition among buyers and the market concentration of buyers are the two main factors that decide the procurement price. High concentration (less number of buyers) of buyers or collusion among buyers is likely to force farmers to settle for lower price and undesirable payment terms.

Therefore it is expected that the New Policy would provide a framework that would be progressive fair and at the same time protect marginal farmers from exploitation. It should design a model code of contract leading to healthy environment of engagement between organised retailers and farmers.

Despite a rich statistical heritage paucity of data hinders policymaking in India. Most national surveys such as the ones carried out by the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) tend to focus on a single theme. Further these surveys typically provide snapshots of society only at a particular point of time.

By comparison the India Human Development Survey (IHDS) carried out jointly by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) and the University of Maryland collects information on a plethora of socio­economic indicators such as income employment education health well­being and other parameters. Further IHDS is a panel data­set. This allows study of the same households over time. The first round in 2004­05 covered 41554 households. In 2011­12 the second round re­interviewed 83 per cent of the original households with an additional sample of 2134 households. With data from the latest round in the public domain researchers are beginning to explore various aspects of socio­economic changes India has seen over the past decade. Ishan Bakshi looks at the key findings under four broad categories ­ intergenerational mobility health gender and the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme.

INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY IN INDIA

Does the apple fall far from the tree?

Conventional wisdom has it that rigid caste structures prevent children from switching to occupations different from their parents’. But a new paper titled Rags to Riches: Intergenerational Occupational Mobility in India suggests the reality is more nuanced.

At the all­India level about 40 per cent of sons born to fathers employed as labourers are engaged in occupations ranked higher in social status than their fathers. About a third of those born to parents in low­skilled occupations are now engaged in occupations ranked higher than those of their fathers.

While these estimates suggest considerable occupational mobility the scenario isn’t so rosy for those involved in many other occupations. Less than one in five sons born to farmers is now engaged in better­paying occupation. Further children born in scheduled castes and scheduled tribes are less likely to move up the occupation hierarchy and more likely to witness a sharp fall than those born in upper­caste households.

At the aggregate level the authors ­ Kunal Sen Anirudh Krishna and Vegard Iversen ­ find a fairly high degree of occupational mobility in India with mobility rates higher in urban than rural areas. The logic is straightforward: In urban areas individuals are more likely to have greater opportunities for switching jobs.

The authors also find mobility rates higher among forward castes than the backward castes. This could be because forward caste households are more likely to be better educated than lower­caste households.

It is possible that the low levels of mobility the authors find among certain social groups is a consequence of two factors. First children in these households have lower levels of education;second sluggish job creation over the past decade means that despite an improvement in education individuals find it difficult to switch to better occupations.

Other studies based on NSS data also find considerable mobility in India. Viktoria Hnatkovska and her co­authors find the probability of switching occupations between two generations increased from 32 per cent in 1983 to 41 per cent in 2004­05. For scheduled castes and Scheduled Tribes the authors estimate the probability has gone up from 30 per cent to 39 per cent over the same period; for the others it has increased from 33 per cent to 42 per cent. Though the two surveys aren’t entirely comparable the results do suggest that at the aggregate level occupational mobility has increased in India over the past decade.

Income mobility in India While the notion that India is a highly immobile society resonates strongly in public discourse new research suggests intergenerational income mobility in India is similar to levels observed in some developed economies. Abdul Mohammed estimates that in rural India parents pass on roughly half their economic advantage to their children. What this means is that if A earns Rs 100000 more than B then on average A’s children will earn Rs 50000 more than B’s. As mobility in urban areas is likely to be higher aggregate mobility at the all­India level is likely to be similar to existing levels in the US and the UK though significantly lower than Scandinavian countries such as Denmark Norway and Finland.

HEALTH

Portliness amidst poverty

While public discourse on health in India largely revolves around issues of under­nutrition and malnutrition research by Pushkar Maitra and Nidhia Menony shows the proportion of people overweight or obese in India is substantial and growing.

India has the third highest number of obese and overweight people in the world after the US and China. The authors find at an all­India level 23 per cent of adult women and 19 per cent of adult men are overweight or obese. It should not come as a surprise that the urban numbers are larger. In urban areas 35 per cent of adult women and 29 per cent of adult men are either overweight or obese as compared to 16 per cent and 14 per cent respectively in rural areas.

In urban areas women in Punjab Jammu & Kashmir Haryana and Himachal Pradesh show the highest rates of overweight with 50 per cent of women in urban Punjab either overweight or obese. In rural areas the highest proportion of this population was observed in Kerala Punjab Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.

The authors who used body mass index (BMI) to measure obesity find BMI significantly higher for married men in both rural and urban areas. BMI is higher among more educated individuals especially women belonging to more affluent households.

The authors also find an increase in the number of hours spent watching TV and the presence of household help are significantly related with increased BMI. This suggests a sedentary lifestyle correlates well with overweight and obesity. Interestingly the study also finds access to piped water and a flush toilet indicative of higher income associated with higher BMI. Improving sanitation Simply building latrines will not be enough to put an end to the practice of open defecation in India.

A study by Chloe Leclere finds individual characteristics such as gender empowerment health beliefs wealth and social identity significantly impact latrine use. This implies policies should also focus on “nudging” people to make better choices. What is equally important is the presence of village/district level infrastructure. For example an improvement in the main source of water availability in a village increases the chances of households owning proper sanitation.

GENDER

Bargaining for girls’ education

It is well known that when it comes to education households in India prefer to spend more on boys than on girls. This is probably a consequence of the patriarchal society we live in. But what if adult women in the household begin to contribute more to household income? Do they get a greater say in household decisions? And does this lead to an increase in spending on educating girls?

According to a new paper The Power To Choose: Gender Balance Of Power & Intra­Household Educational Spending In India by Christophe J Nordman and Smriti Sharma spending on girls education is tied to how much women members matter in households’ decision­making. The authors find greater women bargaining power has a significant impact on girls’ educational expenditure in urban areas. But the relationship does not hold in rural areas.

In urban households women typically have lower bargaining power in household decisions. This is largely because womens’ share of household income is significantly lower in urban areas than rural areas. Women labour force participation rates in urban areas are lower than rural areas. But as labour force participation increases and women begin to contribute more to household incomes the intrahousehold dynamics change with women getting more say in household decisions.The study finds in urban Hindu households women have greater bargaining power than households of other religions.

The authors find across all caste groups more women bargaining power leads to greater educational spending on girls. This relationship is especially strong among upper castes scheduled castes and scheduled tribes as compared to other backward classes (OBCs). For upper­caste households a one per cent increase in women education share within a household leads to a four per cent increase in bargaining power.

In rural areas lower caste households scheduled tribes and OBCs exhibit greater women bargaining power than uppercaste ones. While this could seem surprising the authors contend this is because “low­caste women experience greater autonomy and control over household resources and attitudes towards women are more likely to be liberal as compared to upper­caste women who face greater restrictions on mobility and decision­making.”

Patriarchal versus liberal families

Discrimination in the job market alone does not account for differences in pay across genders. A new study by Sukanya Sarkhel and Anirban Mukherjee finds women from liberal families tend to work and earn more than those from patriarchal families. Women born in patriarchal families are more likely to face strong cultural constraints in joining the labour force and are thus likely to work less. This difference is not found among men workers.

NREGS

The unintended welfare implications

While National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) a social security scheme was designed primarily to provide employment during times of stress the scheme has ended up improving household welfare in unintended ways.

For one NREGS may have reduced the dependence of rural households on high interest loans from moneylenders. Data captured in IHDS show while 48 per cent of households participating in NREGS obtained loans from moneylenders in 2004­05 this was down to only 27 per cent in 2011­12.
esearchers Sonalde Desai Prem Vashishtha and Omkar Joshi find the difference between loans taken from moneylenders by NREGS participants against those who did not participate in the scheme was as great as four percentage points. The authors also find while credit from formal sources of finance rose for all households for those who participated in NREGS it rose from 24 per cent in 2004­05 to 34 per cent in 2011­12. It is likely once all NREGS workers open a bank account and learn to operate the formal financial system the share of formal credit could witness a steady rise.

The other unintended benefit has been that children from NREGS households are more likely to be better educated not only in terms of attaining higher levels of education but also showing an improvement in their learning outcomes. The authors find in 2004­05 NREGS households spent four hours less a week on educational activities “than those in low intensity villages and one hour less than their nonparticipating neighbours.” But by 2011­12 these households had bridged the gap.

While the intuitive explanation would be that NREGS income is likely to be spent on education based on the data collected the authors discount this and offer an alternative explanation. They say it is possible NREGS helped reduce child labour. Impact of NREGS on wage growth On the debate as to whether NREGS has influenced wage growth Desai and co­authors present evidence to support the claim that it has contributed both directly and indirectly to wage growth.

States with higher levels of implementation such as Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan have experienced had higher wage growth than low implementation states such as Bihar Gujarat and Maharashtra. The authors find wage growth for men in states with medium level of participation about 3.5 per cent higher than in states with low NREGS participation. In states with higher participation wage growth is about seven per cent higher. The authors also argue NREGS has a far greater indirect impact on wages by “improving the bargaining position of workers”.

“Our public policies have historically focused on individuals who are poor by virtue of the accident of their birth – dalits adivasis and individuals based in poor states and backward districts. But with declining poverty the accident of birth has become less important than the accident of life. People fall into poverty due to illness drought declining opportunities in agriculture and urban blight.”said Dr Sonalde Desai Indian Human Development Survey Project Leader and Senior Fellow at National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) and Professor at the University of Maryland.

Dr Desai was speaking at a function when NCAER formally launched the public-use India Human Development Survey-II (IHDS-II) data said to be India’s first national multi-topic longitudinal household panel survey at the start of the Third IHDS Users’ Conference at Neemrana in Rajasthan on Wednesday.

IHDS survey of over 40000 Indian rural and urban households tracks the same household over long periods of time. It is valuable because researchers and analysts can make inferences with far greater confidence and trace the long-term impact of economic and social policies.

Dr Desai pointed out an inherent problem with use of data collected at a single point in time for informing public policy.

She noted ” If we were to provide safety nets in 2011-12 based on a BPL card issued in 2004-5 65 percent BPL card holders would have already moved out of poverty (reflecting an error of inclusion) but of those poor in 2011-12 40 per cent would not have BPL card since they fell into poverty after the BPL survey (reflecting errors of exclusion). The vulnerability of this last group has unfortunately received little
Policies that label individuals as poor on the basis of Below Poverty Line (BPL) surveys often mis-target. In a rapidly changing economy BPL censuses undertaken only once in ten years tend to miss the mark. IHDS data shows that only 13 per cent of the population was poor in both 2004-05 and 2011-12 and this is the population most likely to be served by the present policies; 53 percent of the people were poor in neither of the two periods and 25 per cent moved out of poverty between 2004-05 and 2011-12. The worrying finding however is that 9 per cent of the population fell into poverty. This suggests that “As Latin American countries have found moving to middle income levels also means fostering a middle-income mindset for drafting social policies with a greater focus on vulnerability instead of concentrating solely on chronic poverty” said Dr Desai.

Professor Reeve Vanneman University of Maryland pointed out that “Given India’s massive policy innovations longitudinal research can examine th ‘before’ and ‘after’ outcomes for participants and non-participants alike. National longitudinal data provides the big picture for evidence-based policy design. The decentralisation of programmes such as Integrated Child Development Services and massive experiments such as MGNREGA and Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana or RSBY have promising implications for development policies around the world. IHDS will help us all to understand their impacts.”

Dr Shekhar Shah Director-General NCAER opened the IHDS Users Conference and emphasized the rich analytical possibilities that this data offer and the impact it has already had. “The IHDS surveys are available free to researchers worldwide. IHDS data are filling a clearly felt need as evidenced by the fact that more than 7000 researchers globally are using these data; over 205 scientific papers have been published using just IHDS-I. With the release of IHDS-II we anticipate an even greater interest” Dr Shah added.

“IHDS-II is currently ranked second in the list of top downloads in the past six months from ICPSR and IHDS-I is fourth. This is an amazing endorsement of the IHDS since the ranking includes all US databases on ICPSR. The next non-US database on this list is at a distant 10th place. So you can imagine the level of interest that the IHDS data are generating. Just the five themes at this Users Conference which actually only scratch the surface show the rich possibilities in assessing the success or failure of Indian public policy in promoting development” he said.

The IHDS contains data on a wide range of topics such as income expenditure employment morbidity health expenditure marriage fertility and education. It is also the only source of data on marriage patterns in India and has proven to be extremely useful in studies of family formation and intra-household dynamics. The project has wide support from a number of funders including five grants from the US National Institutes of Health and from the World Bank the Ford Foundation and DFID UK.