Can plastic money replace cash?

Given the level of indirect taxes there’s an incentive to evade them. The proposed tax breaks for using e-money may not help
The objective of the proposed policy on facilitation of electronic transactions is to replace cash transactions with e-transactions. These have several advantages including macroeconomic effects and benefits to merchants and consumers.
Macroeconomic benefits include financial deepening reduction of unaccounted income increases in tax base and reduction in currency with the public. Both merchants and consumers benefit from avoiding risks associated with handling cash while the former gain from more purchases thanks to credit cards.
However there are several issues that could block the success of this initiative and therefore need to be addressed upfront. Such issues include tax burden compulsion of unpleasant disclosures transaction costs security and potential debt burden.
The share of indirect taxes in the total tax revenue of the country is more than 66 per cent mainly because of high rates and a large tax base where almost every product is taxed.
Indirect taxes do not differentiate between rich and poor. While direct tax can be designed on the basis of income structure it is extremely difficult to implement the same strategy in the case of indirect taxes.
Therefore there is always an incentive for consumers belonging to the stressed income groups to negotiate with merchants for a middle ground that allows them to avoid indirect taxes and obtain cash discounts. Given the large consumer base merchants can negotiate effectively.
The trade-off
The impact of these taxes is much higher than the tax break proposed in the draft proposal. The success of implementing a cashless economy would depend on whether the benefits to merchants and consumers exceed the loss associated with disclosures on the true volume of transactions. Any move to forcefully expose consumers to e-transactions without taking care of the tax burden is likely to increase the cost of living which may push economically stressed consumers further into poverty.
Thus effective use of e-transaction by consumers is best brought about by a substantial shift in the tax structure of the economy. The burden of value added tax (VAT) or the proposed goods and services tax (GST) should be so low that there is minimum incentive for consumers to avoid it.
Globally GST rates are in the range of about 10 per cent against 27 per cent proposed in India. This is too high. Moreover the tax structure itself needs to be changed such that direct taxes take the lead in revenue collection while GST is moderated below the global average.
While a reduction in indirect taxes would motivate consumers to use e-transactions merchants who wish to avoid direct taxes may feel differently. At times these merchants also have to part with large sums as extortion or speed money to the officials concerned. Therefore a corruption-free governance is another important requirement.
It is expected that e-transactions would be preferred by consumers than merchants particularly if tax rates are reduced.
However willing consumers can take advantage of e-transaction only if there is a law that compels all merchants to maintain the facility for e-payments. Therefore a law to this effect will need to be promulgated so that plastic money can be popularised to the extent required.
Avoiding pitfalls
There are many operational costs associated with ownership of payment terminals such as installation fee cost of printing paper for transaction receipts and cancellation rental fee costs of broadband transaction fee and costs of opening and operating a business bank account. In addition due to compatibility problems between payment terminals and transaction service providers a merchant might be required to keep several types of payment terminals.
The impact of such costs is associated with scale of business. This would be negligible cost for large companies but for small ones it may be worthwhile to subsidise such equipment.
Transactions with plastic money have yet not proved to be completely free from fraud and forgery. With the expected large-scale application of e-transaction security measures with respect to data protection early detection and punishment need to be put in place in order to address apprehensions of potential losses.
The effective use of plastic money requires a huge amount of restraint and planning on the part of the user and this comes with experience. Many families have suffered due to the rampant use of credit cards.
The interest rates on outstanding credits are among the highest even more than the informal cash market. Many card users abandon the use of cards due to these costs. Therefore the risk of indebtedness has to be reduced to encourage participation in electronic transactions .
The writer is a senior fellow at NCAER. The views are personal

Kerala Perspective Plan 2030 Unveiled

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The Kerala Perspective Plan 2030 an initiative of the State Planning Board aimed at prudent long-term development strategies over a two-decade period was unveiled here on Monday.

First of its kind in the country the Kerala Perspective Plan 2030 aims at facilitating the state to attain developmental parameters of high-income countries.
Handing over the first document to NITI Ayog member Bibek Debroy Chief Minister Oommen Chandy said that it was a major initiative for the long-term development needs of the state. “The people only give a five-year mandate for a government. The Finance Commission planning and everything is for 5 years. But we should have a prudent plan that will help the state achieve higher parameters” he said.
Though the state had several opportunities to accelerate development he said several issues had throttled growth. “We have been unable to tap the real potential of the state” he said. Debroy said that the emphasis should always be on innovations. He also welcomed the initiative and said that he would ask other states to emulate this model. Rural Development Minister K C Joseph Finance Minister K M Mani State Planning Board Vice- Chairman K M Chandrasekhar National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) fellow Barnoli Bhandari State Planning Board members Alok Sheel C P John and G Vijaraghavan among others were present.
The perspective plan prepared by NCAER envisions to make the state a prosperous knowledge-driven competitive and eco-efficient economy. Creation of a knowledge-based economy is said to be the central point of the plan. Chandrashekar said that the plan aims to achieve economic human social and environmental prosperity. Malappuram Kottayam and Thiruvananthapuram districts which came first second and third repectively in plan implementation were presented with the awards for completing the plan formulation and its implementation in 2013-14. Various departments were also presented awards for their performance in plan implementation.

What Makes a Currency Procyclical? An empirical investigation

This paper looks at the correlation between the cyclical components of gross domestic product and the exchange rate and classifies countries’ currencies as procyclical if they appreciate in good times, countercyclical if they appreciate in bad times, and acyclical otherwise. With this classification, the paper shows that: (i) the countries that are commodity exporters and experience procyclical capital flows tend to have procyclical currencies; (ii) countries with procyclical currencies tend to restrict their capital accounts, perhaps as an attempt to reduce the degree of procyclicality; (iii) countries with procyclical currencies pursue procyclical monetary policy; (iv) however, in the last decade, there is a disconnect between the cyclicality of currency and monetary policy; and (v) the disconnect may reflect a decline in the fear of floating, which can be partially attributed to an improvement in countries’ net foreign asset positions.

Inflation Targeting for India?: The Implications of Limited Asset Market Participation

This paper analyzes whether liquidity constraints matter for optimal monetary policy choices in an open economy. Asset market participation is limited as some agents lack financial capacity and behave in a hand-to-mouth fashion. I evaluate consumer welfare using a micro-founded welfare criterion derived through perturbation techniques, and find that the presence of liquidity constraints requires re-thinking conventional monetary policy design. Simple rules are ranked. While consumer price index (CPI) inflation targeting is appropriate in a fully Ricardian economy, a nominal exchange rate peg is shown to be least suboptimal when financial participation is low. The analysis is applied to the Indian context where monetary policy has recently been overhauled and a new CPI inflation targeting regime is being implemented.

Kerala Perspective Plan 2030

The Kerala Perspective Plan 2030 (KPP) prepared by NCAER for the Kerala State Board of Planning is a strategic path forward for Kerala to achieve economic and living standards equivalent to Nordic countries. KPP 2030 targets leapfrogging the high middle income threshold in the next 15 years and the high income threshold in the next 15 years. It seeks to position Kerala among the Nordic countries in terms of human capital and social and environmental indices. The mission is to achieve sustainable prosperity which includes economic, human well-being, social and green prosperity. To achieve that, Kerala needs to build a sustainable development framework, which involves building a ‘knowledge economy’ and incorporate principles of ‘sustainable development’. The approach of KPP 2030 is to build on Kerala’s achievements, discuss the challenges faced by the state in a globalising economy and propose strategies to achieve the goals. That is the why the KPP is organised in four volumes, which elaborate on four interconnected themes that together constitute its central tenet of balancing economic prosperity, social inclusion and environmental stewardship.

Volume 1 : Begins with the an analysis of the growth of the economy, identifies growth drivers and dynamism of enterprises in different sectors.
Volume 2 : Discusses the key bases to develop a knowledge economy.
Volume 3: Is the environmental sustainability volume. Infrastructure which is linked to both growth and environmental sustainability is included in this volume. The last volume is the social sustainability volume. Health, which is both foundational and a key engine of economic growth is included in this volume.

Kerala Perspective Plan Report links:

Volume 1

Volume 2

Volume 3

Volume 4

 

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