THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The Kerala Perspective Plan 2030 an initiative of the State Planning Board aimed at prudent long-term development strategies over a two-decade period was unveiled here on Monday.
This paper looks at the correlation between the cyclical components of gross domestic product and the exchange rate and classifies countries’ currencies as procyclical if they appreciate in good times, countercyclical if they appreciate in bad times, and acyclical otherwise. With this classification, the paper shows that: (i) the countries that are commodity exporters and experience procyclical capital flows tend to have procyclical currencies; (ii) countries with procyclical currencies tend to restrict their capital accounts, perhaps as an attempt to reduce the degree of procyclicality; (iii) countries with procyclical currencies pursue procyclical monetary policy; (iv) however, in the last decade, there is a disconnect between the cyclicality of currency and monetary policy; and (v) the disconnect may reflect a decline in the fear of floating, which can be partially attributed to an improvement in countries’ net foreign asset positions.
This paper analyzes whether liquidity constraints matter for optimal monetary policy choices in an open economy. Asset market participation is limited as some agents lack financial capacity and behave in a hand-to-mouth fashion. I evaluate consumer welfare using a micro-founded welfare criterion derived through perturbation techniques, and find that the presence of liquidity constraints requires re-thinking conventional monetary policy design. Simple rules are ranked. While consumer price index (CPI) inflation targeting is appropriate in a fully Ricardian economy, a nominal exchange rate peg is shown to be least suboptimal when financial participation is low. The analysis is applied to the Indian context where monetary policy has recently been overhauled and a new CPI inflation targeting regime is being implemented.
The Kerala Perspective Plan 2030 (KPP) prepared by NCAER for the Kerala State Board of Planning is a strategic path forward for Kerala to achieve economic and living standards equivalent to Nordic countries. KPP 2030 targets leapfrogging the high middle income threshold in the next 15 years and the high income threshold in the next 15 years. It seeks to position Kerala among the Nordic countries in terms of human capital and social and environmental indices. The mission is to achieve sustainable prosperity which includes economic, human well-being, social and green prosperity. To achieve that, Kerala needs to build a sustainable development framework, which involves building a ‘knowledge economy’ and incorporate principles of ‘sustainable development’. The approach of KPP 2030 is to build on Kerala’s achievements, discuss the challenges faced by the state in a globalising economy and propose strategies to achieve the goals. That is the why the KPP is organised in four volumes, which elaborate on four interconnected themes that together constitute its central tenet of balancing economic prosperity, social inclusion and environmental stewardship.
Volume 1 : Begins with the an analysis of the growth of the economy, identifies growth drivers and dynamism of enterprises in different sectors.
Volume 2 : Discusses the key bases to develop a knowledge economy.
Volume 3: Is the environmental sustainability volume. Infrastructure which is linked to both growth and environmental sustainability is included in this volume. The last volume is the social sustainability volume. Health, which is both foundational and a key engine of economic growth is included in this volume.
Kerala Perspective Plan Report links: