Policy Brief: India Human Development

Will limiting rural employment guarantees to the 200 poorest districts improve targeting? Probably not. Results from the India Human Development Survey suggest that targeting districts is likely to be ineffective—and that it may be better to target households.

Demographic Deposit, Dividend and Debt

In spite of the rising academic attention to path-dependency in social history, when it comes to the history of economic thinking, we seem to be stuck in a Markovian nirvana where debates of the past are forgotten under the onslaught of new ideas. Nowhere is this more evident than in the discourse on demographic dividend that ignores decades of debates surrounding the relationship between population growth and economic development.  This paper seeks to fill this niche by: (1) Placing the discourse on demographic dividend in the context of past debates on population and development; (2) Differentiating between demographic deposit and demographic dividend, i.e. the mechanical aspects of population composition and potentially transformative power of these changes, as well as the conditions under which these may affection Indian economy and (3) Focusing on the upcoming demographic debt as the population ages.

Biggest caste survey: One in four Indians admit to practising untouchability

Sixty-four years after caste untouchability was abolished by the Constitution more than a fourth of Indians say they continue to practise it in some form in their homes the biggest ever survey of its kind has revealed.

Those who admit to practising untouchability belong to virtually every religious and caste group including Muslims Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes.

Going by respondents’ admissions untouchability is the most widespread among Brahmins followed by OBCs. Among religious communities it is the most widespread among Hindus Sikhs and Jains shows the survey which was conducted in over 42000 households across India by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) and the University of Maryland US.

NCAER established in 1956 is India’s oldest and largest independent non-profit economic policy research institute. The results are part of the India Human Development Survey (IHDS-2) — the largest pan-Indian non-government household survey — carried out in 2011-12 for economic and social variables across multiple categories. The full results of the survey will be available in 2015.

Surveyors asked respondents “Does anyone in your family practise untouchability?” and in case the answer was “No” asked a second question: “Would it be okay for a Scheduled Caste person to enter your kitchen or use your utensils?”

Across India 27 per cent respondents agreed that they did practised untouchability in some form. The practice was most prevalent among Brahmin respondents (52 per cent). 24 per cent of non-Brahmin forward caste respondents admitted to it — lower interestingly than OBC respondents 33 per cent of whom confirmed its prevalence in their homes. 15 per cent of Scheduled Caste and 22 per cent of Scheduled Tribe respondents admitted to the practice.

Broken up by religious groups data from the survey shows almost every third Hindu (30 per cent) admitted to the practice followed by Sikhs (23 per cent) Muslims (18 per cent) and Christians (5 per cent).

Jains topped the list with 35 per cent respondents accepting that they practised untouchability. The survey has however warned that the result for Jains is “not conclusive” because of the small size of the sample.

Lead researcher Dr Amit Thorat an associate fellow at NCAER said “These findings indicate that conversion has not led to a change in mindsets. Caste identity is sticky baggage difficult to dislodge in social settings.” Currently as per a government order of 1950 the SC quota in government jobs applies only to Hindu Sikh and Buddhist Dalits not Christian and Muslim Dalit caste groups.
Spatially untouchability is most widespread in the Hindi heartland according to the survey. Madhya Pradesh is on top (53 per cent) followed by Himachal Pradesh (50 per cent) Chhattisgarh (48 per cent) Rajasthan and Bihar (47 per cent) Uttar Pradesh (43 per cent) and Uttarakhand (40 per cent).

West Bengal appears to be the most ‘progressive’ — with only 1 per cent of respondents confirming they practised untouchability. Kerala comes next in the survey with 2 per cent followed by Maharashtra (4 per cent) the Northeast (7 per cent) and Andhra Pradesh (10 per cent).

Survey results suggest that high incomes do not dent the practice but education especially among Brahmins and OBCs makes a difference.

Quantitative Easing and Tapering of Monetary Policy in the US: Understanding the Effects on India

India was among the hardest hit by the Fed’s ‘taper talks’. This column argues that this impact was large for two reasons. First, India received huge capital flows before. This had made it a convenient target for investors seeking to rebalance away from emerging markets. Second, macroeconomic conditions had worsened, which rendered the economy vulnerable. The measures adopted in response were ineffective in stabilising the financial markets. Implementing a medium-term framework that limits vulnerabilities and restricts spillovers could be more successful.

Arranging a marriage: how India does it

New numbers shed light on what the typical Indian marriage looks like

 
I wrote last week on inter-caste marriage and how just five per cent of women in the National Council of Applied Economic Research’s (NCAER) pan-India survey said that theirs had been an inter-caste marriage. The numbers got me thinking about arranged marriage which is another facet of marriage in India that we have very little data on.
 
The same round of the NCAER (2011-12) which I have advance access to asked women if they knew their husbands before marriage. Around 18 per cent said that they did. The proportion is slightly higher for younger women and for those with more education. It’s highest in Himachal Pradesh (56%) the northeastern States (50%) and Kerala (40%).
 
NCAER also asked women how many of them had a say in their marriage something I wrote aboutearlier this year and 60 per cent said that they did. We looked at those numbers in a detailed infographic here.
 
But neither knowing your husband before marriage nor having a say in your marriage necessarily makes it a “love marriage”. So I turn to a new survey that asked the question directly.
 
The International Centre for Women (ICRW) and United Nations Population Fund (UNPFA) surveyed 9205 men and 3158 women for a study on masculinity and intimate partner violence which I wrote about last week. The survey covers eight States only – Punjab Haryana Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Odisha Gujarat and Maharashtra – but says that its sample is census-representative in those States. This survey directly asked men and women if theirs was an arranged marriage. Here’s what they answered.
 
Between arranged marriages that the man and/ or woman consented to and arranged marriages against their will nearly 90 per cent of marriages in these States were arranged.
 
It’s interesting also to note the difference in the responses of men and women. The questions were not addressed to pairs of husbands and wives and it looks like men are slightly more likely to perceive “agreement” either of the couple or of elders in the finalising of a marriage than women are.
 
So an arranged marriage fixed by family elders and consented to by the couple would appear to be the most typical Indian marriage.
Published in: The Hindu November 19 2014 

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