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Just 5% of Indian marriages are inter-caste: survey

30 per cent of rural and 20 per cent of urban households said they practised untouchability

 

Just five per cent of Indians said they had married a person from a different caste says the first direct estimate of inter-caste marriages in India.

 

The India Human Development Survey (IHDS) conducted by the National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER) and the University of Maryland also reported that 30 per cent of rural and 20 per cent of urban households said they practised untouchability. The IHDS is the largest non-government pan-Indian household survey. It covers over 42000 households representative by class and social group. Its findings yet to be made public were shared exclusively with The Hindu. When married women aged between 15 and 49 were asked if theirs was an inter-caste marriage just 5.4 per cent said yes the proportion being marginally higher for urban over rural India.

 

There was no change in this proportion from the previous round of the IHDS (2004-05). Inter-caste marriages were rarest in Madhya Pradesh (under 1 per cent) and most common in Gujarat and Bihar (over 11 per cent).

 

Survey finds practice of untouchability

 

The India Human Development Survey said what female respondents interpreted as a “different caste” is likely to have been subjective but ultimately closer to the lived reality of an inter-caste marriage.

 

“Questions on caste are some of the most complex questions Indian surveys can ask. The same person will say ‘I am Baniya’ today and say ‘I am Modh Banik’ tomorrow; both would be correct” Sonalde Desai a demographer who is Senior Fellow at NCAER and Professor of Sociology at the University of Maryland who led the IHDS-II told The Hindu.

 

“So the IHDS took a simple approach and asked women whether their natal family belongs to the same caste as their husband’s family allowing us to bypass the complex issue of defining what caste means and get subjective percept-ions from our respondents” Dr. Desai said.

The NCAER survey also asked respondents if they practised untouchability following it up with a question on whether the respondent would allow a lower caste person to enter their kitchen or use their utensils.

 

A third of rural respondents and a fifth of urban respondents admitted to practising untouchability. The practice was most common among Brahmins (62 per cent in rural India 39 per cent in urban) followed by Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and then non-Brahmin forward castes.

 

The only other estimate on the extent of inter-caste marriage came from an indirect method. Comparing the answers that the husbands and wives of the same household gave to the National Family Health Survey researchers Kumudini Das K.C. Das T.K. Roy and P.K. Tripathy found that 11 per cent of couples in the 2005-06 NFHS stated different caste groups.

 

 

The Hindu: NCAER lowers India GDP growth forecast to 5% in 2014-15

In its mid-year review of the economy the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) has lowered its 2014-15 growth forecast for India to 5 per cent. In July the think-tank had put out a growth forecast of 5.7 per cent. The projection of a slowdown is despite the 5.7 per-cent growth in the first quarter of the current year (April-September) after two successive years of sub-5 per cent growth.

The NCAER’s projection of slower growth during the rest of the year is in line with the Reserve Bank’s forecast.
“The NCAER is predicting a slower growth for the economy unlike other forecasts. The fundamentals of the economy remain weak with uncertainties prevailing.” the think-tank said in its mid-year review.
It said that though the weakening of inflation and the foreign direct investment inflows to be redeeming features whether they will help it revive the growth prospects will depend on factors such as the extent of damage on agriculture due to deficit rainfall. Another cause for concern according to the NCAER is that after recording a strong performance of double-digit growth in May and June export growth slowed down in subsequent months with a growth rate of just 2.73 per cent in September.
The 2014-15 farm sector growth projected at 2 per cent on account of the uneven distribution and the 17-per cent deficiency in rainfall has pulled down the mid-year gross domestic product (GDP) projection. Last year the sector had grown 4.7 per cent.
Industry is projected to grow at 2.3 per cent. Official figures had put last year’s growth at 0.4 per cent. Services which account for more than half of the GDP are projected to grow at just under 7 per cent marginally faster than in the previous year. “Manufacturing proved the biggest disappointment” the review said. The manufacturing sector growth rate contracted by (-) 1 per cent in July and (-) 1.4 per cent in August respectively.
The NCAER has also projected the Centre’s fiscal deficit at 4.3 per cent of GDP against the budget target of 4.1 per cent.

Business Standard: Mid-Year Relief

With an uncertain global outlook much work is still ahead

 

The India International Centre (IIC) in New Delhi has been organising an annual mid-year review of the Indian economy for a long time in collaboration with different research institutions each year. This year’s edition was presented by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER). This kind of stock-taking exercise had significant value in earlier years when data were published after long lags and the community of analysts was relatively small. With shorter data lags and many more analysts the economy is being assessed in virtually real time; the mid-year exercise has diminished in utility. However this has not been a normal year for some obvious reasons domestically but equally for some very important global reasons. Making a collective assessment based on all these developments certainly has value in this context. The IIC-NCAER report presents a balanced picture clearly highlighting several positives but also cautioning about looming risks and bottlenecks.

 

On the external front against a backdrop of the rollback of its unconventional monetary policy by the United States Federal Reserve and a dramatic decline in oil prices the situation for India has become quite positive. Rising expectations of the new government aggressively pursuing structural reforms and the narrowing of the current account deficit or CAD which will be sustained by lower oil prices have induced a surge in foreign portfolio investment. Both better prospects for returns and a significant reduction in currency risk have played a part in this. India’s vulnerability to the reversal of global liquidity conditions now appears rather low; foreign investors are clearly preferring it to several other emerging market economies many of which are experiencing significant slowdowns in growth. Going forward currency risks will remain muted as long as oil prices persist at current levels. This is a dramatic change from the high levels of vulnerability that a surging CAD had created over the past three years.

 

Oil prices also have very positive implications for the fiscal situation. Without lifting a finger fuel and fertiliser subsidies will shrink making it that much easier for the government to exceed its deficit target for the year even if revenue collections fall short of estimates. Of course this favourable development has been reinforced by the decision to de-regulate diesel prices and the movement towards putting an aggregate cap on liquefied petroleum gas subsidies. The government’s resolve will be tested if and when oil prices rise sharply but for the moment good luck and good policy make a powerful combination.

 

Does all of this translate into better growth prospects? The report itself is somewhat hedged in its forecast but seems to largely endorse the 5.5-6 per cent range for the current year’s growth in gross domestic product. It points out that some global forecasters have turned much more positive but perhaps caution is appropriate here; it takes a while for favourable macroeconomic conditions to translate into accelerating growth. The global economic outlook has turned bearish. This is not good news for the Indian economy. While India will benefit from lower commodity prices its exports and therefore the domestic growth that they fuel are likely to suffer. Besides many structural impediments remain one or more of which could dilute or offset the benefits of the current combination of good luck and good policy. Reassuringly the report is far more positive about declining inflation; lower oil prices will help to counter at least for a while other persistent inflationary pressures. In short the Indian economy at mid-year 2014-15 looks good but there is much work ahead.

Event Link: Malcolm Adiseshiah Mid-Year Review of the Indian Economy 2014-15

Financial Chronicle: NCAER lowers GDP growth forecast to 5% for this year

Fundamentals of economy remain weak with uncertainties prevailing

 
India’s economic recovery is still elusive according to economic think-tank NCAER which forecast a slower GDP growth this financial year unlike other forecasts including that of government.
 
 
In its mid-year review of the economy for this financial year NCAER said GDP growth would be five per cent in 2014-15 which is lower than its earlier forecast of 5.7 per cent made in July this year. It had projected a mere 5.1 per cent growth in April this year.
 
 
“NCAER is predicting a slower growth for the economy unlike other forecasts. The fundamentals of the economy remain weak with uncertainties prevailing” it said in a press statement on Monday.
 
 
“The only redeeming feature is the weakening of inflation and FDI inflows. Whether that will help us revive our growth prospects will depend on a number of factors including revival of the external economy and the extent of damage on agriculture due to deficit rainfall” it said.
 
 
NCAER forecast is much lower than other forecasts including that of World Bank and Asian Development Bank which ranged between 5.4 to 5.9 per cent this financial year. The government expected a growth pick up this financial year after two years of below 5 per cent growth the worst since the 1980s. The government projected at least 5.5 per cent growth this financial year and with slightly better performance in agriculture it could be close to 6 per cent. The NCAER mid-year review covered the performance of the economy during first half of the current year (April – September) and presented the most recent GDP forecasts made by NCAER using its quarterly and annual macro models.
 
 
Bimal Jalan former RBI governor and ex-president of NCAER and currently chairman of the government’s expenditure management commission released the NCAER Report from the 2013-14 mid-year review.
 
 
NCAER has always been looked as a ‘neutral outsider’ with an unbiased view of the Indian economy. “Overall the economy looks weak with uncertain growth prospects. The economy is giving mixed signals” it said.
 
 
On one hand “we had the Sensex reaching record levels partly driven by record foreign institutional investment and FDI. Even the NCAER business confidence index showed rise in sentiments in July 2014. This change in sentiment has been drive by the change in the political climate in the form of a ‘stable government’. Another positive sentiment has been the weakening of prices driven by downward movement of food and fuel inflation” it said.
 
 
On the other hand agricultural growth is predicted to be lower than last year as there was deficit rainfall with uneven spatial and temporal patterns. After the first quarter industrial growth has slowed down in the months of July and August with the manufacturing sector leading the downfall.
 
 
The power sector was the only redeeming feature in the economy with double-digit growth. The pace of growth shows signs of slowing down in the services sector it said. Therefore while inflation has weakened significantly and sentiments have arisen the fundamentals of the economy continue to be weak the mid-year review said.
 
 
Deficient monsoon is bound to affect agricultural output especially in rain-fed areas which account for about 55-60 per cent of the area sown. NCAER’s estimates based on its economic models anticipate a 2 per cent to 4 per cent deficit in overall kharif food. 

The Economic Times: NCAER lowers India GDP growth forecast for this year to 5%

NEW DELHI: The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) has lowered India’s GDP growth forecast to 5 per cent in the current financial year on weak economical fundamentals and uncertainties in growth prospects. 

 

The economic think-tank in its earlier projection had suggested that the Indian economy was likely to grow at 5.7 per cent in 2014-15. 

 

“NCAER is predicting a slower growth for the economy unlike other forecasts. The fundamentals of the economy remain weak with uncertainties prevail. The only redeeming feature is the weakening of inflation and FDI inflows. 

 

“Whether that will help us revive our growth prospects will depend on a number of factors including revival of the external economy and the extent of damage on agriculture due to deficit rainfall” it said in a release today. 

 

NCAER said that the overall economy is looking weak with uncertain growth prospects. 

 

“The economy is giving mixed signals. On one hand we had the Sensex reaching record levels partly driven by record foreign institutional investment and FDI.” 

 

However the business confidence index is showing rise in sentiments on the back of a stable political regime with the new government it said. 

 

Weakening of prices due to cheaper food and fuel inflation is also positive but agricultural growth is predicted to be lower than last year as there was deficit rainfall with uneven spatial and temporal patterns. 

 

“The pace of growth shows signs of slowing down in the services sector. Not surprisingly bank credit to the commercial sector has not picked pace and continues to languish.Further the slowdown in the external economy except the United States shows little growth prospects for the external sector even though exports grew in the first quarter” it said. 

 

Therefore while inflation has weakened significantly and sentiments have improved the fundamentals of the economy continue to be weak said NCAER. 

Event Link: Malcolm Adiseshiah Mid-Year Review of the Indian Economy 2014-15

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