Think-tank National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) has projected a 5.1-5.5 per cent economic growth in 2014-15 for India.
It also forecast a 6.1 per cent inflation based on wholesale prices in the current fiscal.
The fiscal deficit is estimated at 4.5 per cent of GDP.
“GDP growth rate for 2014-15 is projected at 5.1-5.5 per cent. The higher growth of 5.5 per cent is conditional on pick-up on investment spending” NCAER said in a report today.
It said the agriculture sector may show a higher growth of 4.6 per cent in 2013-14 while the growth in 2014-15 will depend on actual pattern of monsoon.
On the price situation the think-tank said said the overall scenario showed a significant improvement in the last quarter of FY 2014.
“Seasonal correction of food prices policy tightening by the RBI and favorable global factors are some of the attributing factors that may prove transient.
“Food inflation will depend on the spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon in the coming season and the extent to which both are affected by El Nino” NCAER said in a report titled ‘Quarterly Review of the Economy’.
Timing and magnitude of revision in administered prices mainly of electricity and coal will also affect the trajectory of inflation in 2014-15 it added.
Not all of the Indian middle class has access to all amenities yet. According to latest data from National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER) only 40 per cent of those in the middle class comprising households with annual income above Rs. 88800 annually (an estimate suggested by NCAER researchers) have piped water connections and only 15 per cent get three hours of water supply every day. Just over half of such families have flush toilets and a similar percentage get 18 hours of electricity in a day.
Non-agricultural labour is still the most common job for men in families earning between Rs. 88801 to 1.5 lakh per year. For the richest 20 per cent population (above Rs. 1.5 lakh per year) however salaried work becomes the most common occupation.
By standard international definitions like a consumption expenditure of more than $10 per day India would have no middle class because everyone spending that much is in the top 5 per cent population of the country. Economist Nancy Birdsall founding president of Washington-based Centre for Global Development proposed a $4-$10 range for a class she described as the “catalysing class” which in India is made up of 150 million people or 12 per cent of the population.
“I think it’s more useful to go beyond the income data and look at what we really mean when we talk about a global middle class” said Dr. Sonalde Desai senior fellow at the NCAER and professor of sociology at the University of Maryland. “This would means things like a college degree fluency in English white-collar jobs among others” she said.
The NCAER data shows that just 12 per cent of adult men in 2011-12 had a degree or diploma only 8 per cent could speak fluent English and 14 per cent had some computer skills. Women had fewer skills than men in each of these categories.
Families with an annual income of Rs 1.5 lakh are among the richest 20 per cent in the country data from the 2011-12 round of India Human Development Survey (IHDS) conducted by the National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER) shows.
While incomes have grown considerably in the last seven years access to adequate public services is still severely lacking says the data collected from 42000 households across the country.
The NCAER whose survey is being reported exclusively by The Hindu is the only research organisation with a large sample survey to estimate household income. The government’s National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) collects data on consumption expenditure which is often used as a proxy for income.
For the 2011-12 IHDS the NCAER research team returned to over 80 per cent of the households it had interviewed in 2004-05 to make an estimate of the change over the last seven years. In 2004-05 a family earning Rs. 70000 annually would have been among the richest 20 per cent in the country while in 2011-12 the same family would find a place in the middle of the distribution. An annual household income of Rs. 25000 placed a family in the middle of the order in 2004-05. In 2011-12 Rs. 25000 is the annual income of the poorest 20 per cent of Indians.
Moreover this growth has been despite inflation. The real (inflation-adjusted) median income in 2004-5 was Rs. 28200 and it grew by nearly 4.7% annually to Rs. 37500 in 2011-12
The situation on the public services front is still grim. Piped water available indoors has grown by only 2% and is now available to 27% households. In urban areas piped water is available to between half and two-thirds of families. Of families which get piped water less than a third get three hours of supply a day.
Gujarat Maharashtra Goa and Delhi have the highest coverage of families for piped water (60%). Delhi gives its residents water for the most number of hours in a day.
Flush toilets are now accessible to one-third of all households and over two-thirds of urban households. Toilet coverage is the highest in Kerala (92%) Delhi (79%) and Punjab (74%).
Access to electricity is inching towards becoming universal with 83 per cent of all households getting supply. Jammu and Kashmir Himachal Pradesh and Delhi have 100% access to ‘some electricity’. No State had reached this milestone in 2004-05. Just 45% households with access to power get 18 hours or more of electricity in the day. Himachal Pradesh Punjab Kerala Delhi and Gujarat lead the country in terms of supply of 18 hours or more.
