Bolstering critical minerals trade between India and other MSP countries: A gravity model evaluation

This study aims to evaluate the opportunities for a sustainable environment, an equitable economy, and a just society through the international trade of critical minerals. By employing a gravity model, it intricately analyzes the trade dynamics between India and 13 other members of the Mineral Securities Partnership (MSP). The study indicates a landscape rich with potential for enhancing environmental protection; however, this is somewhat overshadowed by a decrease in the overall impacts on the economic and social dimensions of sustainable trade practices. The apparent lack of synergy among the various outcomes that arise from increased trade underscores a pressing need for policymakers to create pathways where environmental, economic, and social opportunities can harmoniously reinforce one another, amplifying the benefits of critical mineral trade. Moreover, the empirical findings highlight that income heterogeneity positively influences sustainable trade practices across environmental, economic, and societal fronts, thereby affirming the Heckscher-Ohlin hypothesis. Crucially, the study identifies the variability in trade uncertainty between partners as a powerful catalyst for trade and a driver of innovation within MSP countries. The discussion further delves into the effects of research and innovation, currency exchange, and geographical distance on sustainable trade, especially concerning QUAD and non-QUAD nations. This emphasizes the imperative for customized strategies that elevate global sustainable trade, considering the unique economic structures and regulatory landscapes at play.

Rural-Urban Migration and Climate Change

India’s rapid urbanization, driven by rural-to-urban migration, has led to significant socio-economic challenges, with almost half of urban dwellers living in slums. Climate change, resource scarcity, and environmental degradation exacerbate these issues, putting pressure on cities’ infrastructure and health systems

Driving Inclusive Growth: Employment implications of the energy transition

India has embarked on an ambitious plan to transition its energy sector towards sustainability and resilience. The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) emphasise reducing the emissions intensity of the GDP by 45 per cent by 2030, increasing the share of non-fossil-fuel-based electricity capacity to 50 per cent, and achieving net zero emissions by 2070. This transformative ambition requires structural changes in energy production and consumption, necessitating a shift from coal-dominated energy systems to renewables such as solar, wind and hydro. In 2024, renewable energy sources accounted for only 12.1 per cent of India’s total electricity generation, while coal accounted for 74.4 per cent, remaining the dominant source of electricity due to high power demand and grid reliability concerns (Reuters 2025). The energy transition is expected to have far-reaching implications for employment, economic growth and energy security, making it imperative to assess these impacts comprehensively. Another point to note is that the energy transition may require employees to develop new skill sets as new green technologies are adopted. Manpower planning must take this into account as we increasingly move towards the green energy pathway.

To comprehend the employment implications of this transition, a methodological framework is needed to capture the entire supply chain of energy production/consumption. Only then can one estimate not only the direct employment generation of energy production but also the indirect employment opportunities within the supply chain.  To be precise, a framework that traces the entire circular flow of income/output of an economy is essential. A country’s social accounting matrix (SAM) serves this purpose, making it a viable framework for analysing these effects. Recently, we constructed a detailed SAM of India using the recently published Supply Use Table. This 59×59 SAM, with a base year of 2021-22, incorporates three factors of production and 10 household categories. Here, the aggregated electricity sector in India’s Supply Use Table has been disaggregated into different electricity sectors based on their sources of production, namely, Electricity-Nuclear, Electricity-Solar, Electricity-Wind, Electricity-Hydro, Electricity-Gas, Electricity-Coal and Electricity-Other. This is essential to understand the employment effects of the green transition in the electricity sector.

To evaluate the employment implications of India’s updated NDC targets, three policy scenarios have been modelled. The first is the baseline scenario, which considers the continuation of the current energy composition dominated by fossil fuels. The second scenario envisions achieving a 50 per cent share of renewables in electricity generation by 2030. The third scenario accounts for historical disparities between installed capacity and actual output, with renewables contributing 30 per cent to electricity generation.

The implications of India’s environmental policy targets, as demonstrated through the SAM, emphasise the transformative potential of renewable energy adoption on employment and economic structures. Achieving these targets necessitates a shift in energy production patterns, reducing reliance on fossil fuels while scaling up renewable energy capacity. The SAM provides empirical insights into how this transition impacts direct and total employment across sectors.

In the modelled scenarios, transitioning to a 50 per cent renewable energy share in electricity generation by 2030 substantially increases employment opportunities. Direct employment in the energy sector is projected to grow from 3.9 million under the baseline scenario to 4.5 million in the 50 per cent renewable energy scenario. This shift not only creates jobs within the energy sector but also has significant indirect and induced employment effects across the economy. The total employment, which includes these broader economic linkages, is estimated to reach 28.1 million under the 50 per cent renewable energy scenario. Even under the more conservative 30 per cent renewable energy scenario, total employment impacts are substantial, amounting to 25.7 million jobs.

The SAM further highlights sectoral interdependencies and the ripple effects of renewable energy investments. Sectors such as manufacturing, construction and services benefit indirectly from increased demand for renewable energy infrastructure, equipment and associated services. These effects highlight the importance of coordinated policy efforts to maximise the socio-economic benefits of the energy transition. The graph illustrates the differences in direct and total employment across the three scenarios, highlighting the outsized impact of renewable energy investments on job creation. The visual representation underscores the potential for renewable energy to drive inclusive growth, particularly in rural and underdeveloped regions where such investments are likely to have the greatest impact.

The findings underscore the need for supportive policy frameworks that facilitate investments in renewable energy, workforce development and equitable resource allocation. By aligning economic growth with environmental sustainability, India can leverage its energy transition to achieve broader development goals while fulfilling its NDC commitments.

India’s NDCs represent a pivotal opportunity to transform its energy sector, reduce emissions and foster inclusive growth. However, achieving these targets requires coordinated efforts, including investments in renewable energy infrastructure, workforce training and policies that ensure equitable access to resources and benefits. The study underscores the critical role of supportive policies in facilitating this transition, highlighting the importance of financial incentives, regulatory frameworks and public-private partnerships in driving renewable energy adoption.

(Views are personal)

Hyderabad’s dying lakes: A wake-up call for urban reform

Once revered as the “City of Lakes,” Hyderabad is now grappling with a governance crisis, where its lakes—long-standing public goods—are being sacrificed for private gains. Recent data from the National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC) reveal a stark reality: between 1979 and 2023, Hyderabad’s lake area has declined by 61%, shrinking from 40.35 square kilometres to just 16 square kilometres. This alarming depletion of a vital public resource demands urgent policy intervention. Can Hyderabad afford to let private encroachments dictate urban expansion, or is it time to reassert lakes as public goods essential to the city’s sustainability?

The Disappearing Lakes: An Ecological Crisis

Historically, Hyderabad’s lakes have served crucial public functions—regulating floods, recharging groundwater, moderating the microclimate, and enriching cultural and ecological landscapes. However, the real estate boom of the 1990s and 2000s marked a shift towards privatisation. More than 3,000 water bodies have been encroached upon, transforming shared environmental assets into commodities for commercial and residential development. Policies that facilitated land conversion accelerated this process, treating lakes as disposable rather than indispensable. Today, only 185 lakes remain within the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) limits, many of which are silted, polluted, or filled with sewage—severely diminishing their public utility.

The Real Cost: What is Being Lost?

The degradation of Hyderabad’s lakes is not only an environmental issue but also a significant economic concern. The loss of these natural assets deprives residents of essential ecosystem services and forces them to rely on costly alternatives, such as bottled water and air conditioning—expenses that are both financially burdensome and environmentally unsustainable.

These water bodies once provided crucial services, including air filtration, noise reduction, microclimate regulation, and sewage treatment. According to global ecosystem service valuation estimates, wetlands and lakes provide services worth $12,500 per hectare per year. Based on this, the estimated annual loss due to lake degradation in Hyderabad—where lake area has reduced to 2,435 hectares—is approximately $30.44 million (₹2,494 crores). This represents around 65% of the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation’s (GHMC) budget for 2024-25. The figures underscore the economic ramifications of ecosystem degradation, highlighting that conservation is not only an environmental imperative but also a matter of fiscal responsibility.

Moreover, the disappearance of lakes exacerbates urban heat islands, worsens air pollution, and increases flood risks. The financial burden of managing these consequences—rising healthcare costs, increased energy consumption, and emergency flood relief—ultimately falls on the public, while private beneficiaries of lake encroachments reap unchecked profits.

Climate Change: A Compounding Crisis

Rapid urbanisation, coupled with climate change, presents a severe challenge for Hyderabad. Climate variability is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of rainfall, making lakes crucial for flood management. Yet, many of these lakes have lost their capacity to regulate water due to encroachment and silting.

Recent reports indicate that 33 lakes were discharging excess water downstream due to heavy rains, while seven reached full tank levels, mirroring the devastation of the 2019-20 floods, where breached tanks caused fatalities. Hyderabad’s dwindling lake network represents a significant vulnerability in the face of future climate scenarios. Encroached and polluted lakes cannot effectively manage water, exacerbating the risk of flooding.

Reclaiming Lakes as Public Goods

Addressing this crisis requires a fundamental shift in urban governance—one that treats lakes as public goods rather than obstacles to private development. So, what can be done to halt this alarming trend?

Strict enforcement of existing regulations to prevent further encroachments on Hyderabad’s lakes. Large-scale restoration initiatives, including dredging, desilting, and removal of encroachments, to revive the lakes. Rehabilitation with native vegetation and community-led conservation efforts to ensure long-term sustainability. An integrated urban water management framework, treating lakes, wetlands, and stormwater drains as interconnected systems, should be central to Hyderabad’s urban planning policy. This will enhance flood management, groundwater recharge, and overall water quality while aligning developmental goals with environmental sustainability.

As Hyderabad continues to grow, the city stands at a critical crossroads: will it allow further privatisation of public resources at an enormous social cost, or will it commit to an urban planning model that safeguards lakes as essential public goods? The costs of neglect are clear, and the burden of inaction will only compound over time. The question remains: will Hyderabad reclaim its lakes for the public, or will they be permanently lost to private interests?

Peddi is with GIPE Pune, and Mitra and Mohapatra are with NCAER New Delhi. The views expressed are personal.

Unlocking women’s workforce potential

Despite significant progress in educational attainment and health outcomes, India lags in enabling women’s economic participation, which, in turn, impedes the goal of fast and inclusive economic growth. This article shows that formalising part-time employment and redistributing unpaid care work between men and women could raise female labour force participation by six percentage points, from 37% to 43%.

This is the first post of a five-part series to mark International Women’s Day 2025.

India’s quest for fast economic growth and social equity hinges on an obvious but underrated lever – its female workforce. Despite significant progress in educational attainment and health outcomes, the country lags in enabling women’s economic participation. A staggering 60% of India’s working-age women remain outside the labour force, depriving the economy of their contributions (Periodic Labour Force Survey, 2024).

Boosting female labour force participation rate (FLFPR) is not just a matter of gender equality; it is an economic imperative. Research by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that closing the gender gap in labour force participation could increase India’s GDP (gross domestic product) by 27% (Ostry et al. 2018). Higher FLFPR would lead to greater household incomes, improved standards of living, and enhanced economic productivity – Goldin (2006) emphasised that the rise in female labour force participation during the 20th century played a crucial role in enhancing household income growth in the United States, particularly among middle-class families. This increase enabled greater investment in education, healthcare, and nutrition, directly contributing to higher productivity and generating broader multiplier effects on the economy (World Development Report, 2012). The ripple effects extend beyond the economy. When women participate in the workforce, it shifts societal perceptions of gender roles, inspiring younger generations and fostering a culture of equality. Moreover, women’s financial independence contributes to better health and education outcomes for their families, creating a virtuous cycle of development (Afridi et al. 2016).

In a new study (Dev and Sahay 2025), we delve into two key barriers to women’s labour force participation: the unequal burden of unpaid care work and the lack of formal part-time employment opportunities. Our findings provide actionable insights for policymakers to unlock India’s untapped workforce potential.

Current landscape

India’s FLFPR stands at a meagre 32.8%, well below the global average of 48.7% as of 2023 (International Labour Organization, 2024) and OECD average of 67% in 2024. The reasons are multifaceted, stemming from the various barriers faced by women. A key barrier relates to unpaid domestic responsibilities that disproportionately burden women, such as child-rearing, elder care, and household chores. According to the ‘Time Use in India Report’ (2019), Indian women devote more than twice as much time to unpaid care work as compared to men, leaving them with limited opportunities for paid employment.

A second barrier faced especially by women is the absence of formal part-time work options. Unlike in advanced economies, where part-time employment is legislated, well-regulated and socially accepted, Indian does not have formal provisions for part-time work. Women who seek flexibility to balance professional and domestic duties often end up in informal, precarious jobs with no job security or social benefits. This dual burden of paid and unpaid work not only limits women’s career prospects but also affects their ability to contribute to India’s economy.

Our study

We quantify the increase in FLFPR when these two barriers are addressed. We use the ‘McCall-Mortensen job search model’ (McCall 1970) to simulate the impact of formalising part-time employment and redistributing unpaid care work between men and women. We find that addressing just two barriers faced by women could raise the FLFPR by six percentage points, from 37% to 43%.

The study identifies two key interventions:

Formalising part-time employment: Introducing formally recognised part-time work contracts with pro-rated wages and benefits would offer women the flexibility they need. Globally, women are more likely than men to engage in part-time employment, often due to the flexibility these roles offer.  In India, however, the lack of formal recognition for part-time work means women often face exploitation and uncertain employment prospects.

Redistributing unpaid care work: Gender equality in caregiving responsibilities is crucial for enabling women to participate in the labour force. This requires both policy measures, such as paid parental leave and public investment in childcare infrastructure, and cultural changes that abandon traditional gender roles.

A comparative perspective

We highlight best practices from advanced economies that India could adapt. For instance, Scandinavian countries have robust policies for part-time work, parental leave, and subsidised childcare, which have significantly boosted female workforce participation. In France, part-time workers receive the same protections and benefits as full-time employees, ensuring equitable treatment. The European Union’s directives on part-time work, adopted in the late 1990s, mandate equal pay and social security for part-time workers. As seen in the table below, India’s labour laws, by contrast, remain silent on these issues, perpetuating systemic inequalities

Policy recommendations

Our findings underscore the need for a multi-pronged policy approach:

Formalising part-time work: India must define and formalise part-time employment. This includes setting hourly minimum wages (currently, the smallest unit for defining minimum wages in India is per day and not per hour), ensuring job security, and providing access to social security benefits. Formalising part-time work would create a structured pathway for women to enter the workforce while balancing caregiving responsibilities.

Investing in care infrastructure: Public and private investment in affordable childcare and eldercare facilities yields many benefits to private companies and the macroeconomy, as international studies have shown (Council of Economic Advisors, US). Such measures would not only reduce the caregiving burden on women but also create new employment opportunities in the care economy.

Promoting gender equality in caregiving: Policies like paid parental leave for both parents and tax incentives for shared caregiving responsibilities can help redistribute unpaid care work. Awareness campaigns to challenge societal norms and promote gender equity are equally important.

Flexible work policies: Employers should adopt flexible work arrangements, such as remote work and adjustable schedules, to support employees with caregiving responsibilities. This move would also be in the self-interest of companies because their output and productivity can be expected to increase (Bainbridge and Townsend, 2020).

Implementation challenges – and a call to action

While the benefits of these interventions are clear, their implementation poses significant challenges. Deeply ingrained cultural norms often resist change, making it difficult to redistribute caregiving responsibilities. Employers may be reluctant to adopt flexible work policies without government regulation. Additionally, the informal nature of India’s labour market, where over 80% of workers are employed, complicates the formalisation of part-time work.

Addressing these challenges requires coordinated efforts from policymakers, employers, and civil society. The government must take the lead by formalising labour reforms and investing in care infrastructure, as is common in many advanced economies. Employers should recognise the business case for diversity and flexibility, which have been shown to improve employee retention and productivity (Choi 2019). Civil society organisations should continue to play a crucial role in raising awareness and advocating for gender equality.

As the country aspires to become a developed nation by 2047, harnessing the potential of its female workforce is essential. By formalising part-time employment, redistributing unpaid care work, and promoting gender equality, India can unlock a brighter, more inclusive path for its society today and for future generations. The time to act is now.

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