NCAER News: January 2025

NCAER News is a monthly newsletter where you can learn about NCAER’s research outputs, its latest events, and offerings.

River linking challenges

National body needed for inter-State disputes.

One of the lasting symbols of late Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the Golden Quadrilateral, which was launched to link India’s four major cities: Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, and Kolkata.

This project transformed India’s connectivity and boosted trade, commerce, and travel, knitting the country closer together.

Taking a cue from these benefits, subsequent governments have carried forward this good work.

Today, these network of highways remains the backbone of India’s road infrastructure.

The other was the mega-project of linking of major rivers of India to create additional storage facilities and transfer water from water-surplus regions to more drought-prone areas through inter-basin transfers. This was a more challenging project and did not see the light of the day for nearly two decades.

Only recently, on the occasion of Vajpayee’s 100thbirth anniversary, Prime Minister Narendra Modi laid the foundation stone of Ken-Betwa river linking national project, country’s first interlinking of rivers project under national perspective plan. This project expected to provide irrigation facilities to water starved various districts in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh benefitting lakhs of farmer families.

Moreover, the project is planned to provide drinking water facilities to the people of the region. Along with these, the hydropower projects will contribute more than 100 MW in green energy. The project will also create employment opportunities in the rural areas. 

The challenges

Due to the impact of climate change most of the river basin of India is becoming to water deficient, and transferring water across water basin is a difficult proposition.

By the time, this phase of the project will be completed, much of the climate change impact on water will be prominent. Globally these projects are shunned due their environment implications. Take the case of Farakka barrage which was constructed to save Kolkata port. However, over the years, it has led to sediment deposit in the upstream near the barrage leading to recurrent flood in Bihar, while in the downstream of the barrage, it has led to land grabbing near the river. 

State vs concurrent list

Water is a State subject and while the Centre has initiated a move to bring it under the Concurrent List, this may not happen in the near future due to political differences between the ruling party at the Centre and the parties ruling the States.

Recently, we have seen a rise in conflicts among States over water. Thus, without having a full-fledged architecture to solve these disputes, it may not be prudent to embark on a project like this. This may lead to money down the drain!

States often knock the doors of courts for settling their water disputes. Understandably, given the archaic legal system in India, this is probably not the best way forward. In a multi-party democracy exists, there is need for cooperative solutions.

The Indian context will require a home grown institutional set up with a well-built in grievance redressal system. It is important to ensure that the common interests of all parties are met and proper representation — both Centre and States, is given in the institutional setup. Looking at time taken to resolve inter-State water disputes, establishing a national commission for basin management would be a better option.

This commission should give broad policy outlines, monitor river basins and their administration. The existing river basin organisations should come under this national commission.

Finally, the very purpose of transferring water across river basin will be defeated if the farmers opt for cultivating water intensive crops in water scarce basin. Also the current skew of the minimum support prices in favour of water intensive crops needs to change or the project’s objective will be defeated.

The writer is Professor, NCAER. Views expressed are personal.

Outlook 2025: Crucial ‘bridge year’ for Africa to lead on the global stage

From policy recipient to proactive global player 

For decades, external voices have often narrated Africa’s economic story through a narrow lens of challenges: uneven growth, energy deficits, food insecurity, extreme poverty, mounting debt and stalled reforms. While these obstacles are undeniable, they overshadow a more compelling narrative of resilience, innovation and cautious hope.

In 2024, Africa’s economic and political importance grew significantly, laying a strong foundation for 2025 to be a transformative year for the continent. With headline economic growth reaching approximately 3.2%, Africa ranked among the fastest-growing regions globally. The continent has been addressing critical issues such as climate change, supply chain disruptions and energy transitions by embracing localised and innovative solutions. At the same time, Africa is proactively reshaping its economic identity, positioning itself as a key player in global trade, finance and sustainability efforts.

Africa’s vast renewable energy potential, including solar and wind resources, mineral wealth such as lithium and cobalt, and untapped markets in agriculture and technology, make it indispensable to global efforts towards climate resilience and economic growth. Africa’s demographic advantage is also unmatched. By 2050, the continent will house the world’s largest working-age population, thus instilling a sense of optimism about Africa’s future.

Private sector interest

Africa’s increasing economic appeal is evident in the private sector’s growing interest in the continent. Multinational corporations, financial institutions and venture capital firms recognise the vast opportunities presented by Africa’s resource wealth, expanding markets and consumer demand. This private sector momentum can be expected to accelerate in 2025.

Key sectors, such as renewable energy, technology and financial services, attract healthy investor interest. Companies like TotalEnergies and Enel Green Power are scaling up green energy projects, while global financial giants like JP Morgan Chase and Mastercard are establishing a more substantial presence. Africa’s fintech ecosystem, now valued at over $3bn, has emerged as a hub for innovation, with startups successfully drawing funding from continental and international investors. These trends reflect growing confidence in Africa’s capacity to deliver returns on investment.

Unlocking growth potential amid challenges

To realise its potential in 2025, Africa must tackle entrenched structural constraints, including fragmented regulatory frameworks, an underdeveloped financial sector, inadequate infrastructure and the burden of unsustainable debt levels.

Operationalisation of the African Continental Free Trade Area is poised to be a game-changer. By establishing the world’s largest free trade area by member countries, AfCFTA promises a unified market for goods and services, unlocking regional integration and paving the way for financial harmonisation. The Pan-African Payment and Settlement System, a critical enabler under AfCFTA, is maturing rapidly. It is already facilitating cross-border transactions in local currencies, reducing reliance on foreign exchange reserves and lowering transaction costs. This innovation is particularly impactful in the growing fintech and sustainable finance sectors, where cost efficiency and accessibility are paramount.

Africa’s capital markets are also witnessing notable progress. Egypt and Nigeria have successfully issued green bonds, attracting billions in investments from global investors prioritising sustainability. These efforts signal the continent’s growing ability to align with international trends in sustainable finance. Meanwhile, initiatives to integrate stock exchanges in Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa are improving market liquidity, reducing investment barriers and fostering regional co-operation.

Banks are equally instrumental in driving growth and resilience. Institutions such as Access Bank Group and Standard Bank are scaling operations across the continent, providing much-needed credit to small- and medium-sized enterprises. Since SMEs account for up to 90% of businesses and contribute significantly to African employment, this support is crucial for job creation and economic diversification. These developments reflect Africa’s increasing capacity to navigate challenges and build a robust financial ecosystem.

Africa’s digital transformation

Collaborative ecosystems will be crucial in 2025, and the digitalisation of financial systems is instrumental in fostering these ecosystems. Platforms such as Flutterwave, M-Pesa and Chipper Cash are driving the fintech revolution. These platforms facilitate seamless payments, expand credit access and enable financial inclusion, especially in underserved rural areas.

Collaborative public-private partnerships are also addressing infrastructure and connectivity gaps. For example, US-backed programmes aim to connect millions of farmers and SMEs to the digital economy, highlighting the importance of integrated solutions over siloed approaches.

G20 leadership and global partnerships

In 2024, Africa solidified its position at the forefront of global climate efforts, becoming a pivotal voice in shaping the sustainability agenda. South Africa’s G20 presidency in 2025 now provides an opportunity to amplify Africa’s influence on the international stage. Among its key priorities is establishing a Global Cost-of-Living Commission to address the skyrocketing food and energy prices – issues disproportionately affecting vulnerable economies. This initiative could provide a much-needed lifeline to nations grappling with external shocks, including inflation, supply chain disruptions and the economic fallout of climate change. The presidency also underscores Africa’s call for more equitable financial governance in institutions like the International Monetary Fund and World Bank to increase voting rights and representation for African countries.

Partnerships with developed nations are evolving from aid dependency towards investment-driven collaborations. The replenishment of multilateral funds such as the International Development Association and the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust offers critical support for Africa’s development trajectory. These mechanisms are set to finance vital infrastructure projects, bolster climate resilience initiatives and underpin social development programmes, ensuring the continent is better equipped to navigate persistent challenges while capitalising on emerging opportunities.

Strategic initiatives like Italy’s Mattei Plan – which advocates for equitable and sustainable partnerships between Europe and Africa – highlight the growing recognition of Africa’s global importance. This plan emphasises energy, sustainability and development investments rather than resource extraction, signalling a shift towards mutual benefit and long-term co-operation.

Furthermore, commitments from key partners, including China’s Belt and Road Initiative, South Korea’s technology transfer programmes and the European Union’s Global Gateway strategy, emphasise Africa’s rising geopolitical and economic significance. Brics nations have also demonstrated their support for Africa’s growth through enhanced trade agreements, capacity-building programmes and the establishment of the New Development Bank, which increasingly focuses on funding African development priorities.

With strategic leadership and well-aligned partnerships, Africa’s role in global economic and governance frameworks is poised for significant advancement in 2025. This is an opportunity for the continent to address its immediate challenges and a moment to shape a more equitable and sustainable global order.

Action points for Africa’s financial leadership

To solidify its position in global finance, Africa must prioritise actionable strategies across three key domains: strengthening its financial sector, fostering continent-wide partnerships, and advancing systemic reforms at the regional and global levels. These efforts will build resilience and position Africa as a proactive agent in shaping its economic future.

First, enhancing the efficiency and inclusivity of Africa’s financial sector is critical. The continent’s financial industry benefits from increased competition by encouraging diverse service providers, such as fintech startups and non-bank financial institutions, to challenge traditional banking models. Expanding access to digital financial services – such as mobile banking, e-wallets and digital payment platforms – can empower underserved populations, especially in rural areas, while stimulating grassroots economic activity. Notably, mobile money services like M-Pesa have already demonstrated their transformative potential. Complementing these efforts with financial literacy campaigns and consumer protection frameworks will build trust, safeguard users and reinforce the system’s resilience against shocks.

Second, partnerships must transition into strategic, outcome-driven collaborations. Public-private partnerships should focus on bridging critical infrastructure and digital connectivity gaps, emphasising integrating rural and underserved areas into the broader economy. For example, initiatives like the African Union’s Digital Transformation Strategy 2030 can be blueprints for leveraging connectivity to unlock economic growth. At the same time, intra-continental mechanisms like the AfCFTA and the PAPSS must be fully operationalised to harmonise markets, reduce trade barriers and facilitate seamless cross-border commerce. Partnerships with global stakeholders can further catalyse funding for transformative infrastructure projects, renewable energy initiatives and digital inclusion programmes.

Finally, systemic reforms are essential to address the continent’s structural challenges. Regional coordination on key issues, such as debt sustainability and financial governance, is crucial. Many African nations grapple with unsustainable debt levels, requiring innovative debt restructuring mechanisms and sound fiscal and monetary policies to alleviate financial strain. On the global stage, Africa must intensify its push for equitable representation in international financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank. Securing greater voting rights and influencing global policy decisions will ensure that Africa’s specific priorities – such as climate finance and development funding – are adequately addressed.

By uniting around these priorities, Africa can become a cornerstone of international economic and climate strategies. Bold, coordinated action will turn aspirations into tangible achievements, positioning 2025 as a year of transformation and leadership. The narrative is shifting, and Africa’s time to lead has arrived.

Udaibir Das is a visiting professor at the National Council of Applied Economic Research, senior non-resident adviser at the Bank of England, senior adviser of the International Forum for Sovereign Wealth Funds, and distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation America. He was previously at the Bank for International Settlements and the International Monetary Fund.

Framework for Assessment of Logistics Cost In India

The Government of India, under the leadership of the Prime Minister, has demonstrated unwavering commitment to strengthen the logistics sector through transformative initiatives such as PM GatiShakti and National Logistics Policy (NLP). Complemented by digital tools like ULIP and dedicated freight corridors, the policy is driving a more efficient, competitive, and sustainable logistics ecosystem across India. It is, therefore, important to estimate the logistics cost for India and also track it over time, in order to assess the efficiency of initiatives and identify the areas of further intervention. This document presents the methodological framework to conduct the study on estimating the National Logistics Cost and has been prepared by NCAER and DPIIT, in consultation with the Taskforce, which was constituted to provide the guidance during the course of the study. The Task Force comprises members from NITI Aayog, Ministry of Railways, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, NCAER, academic experts, and other industry stakeholders.

Monthly Economic Review: December 2024

In the Review, we summarise the economic and policy developments in India; monitor global developments of relevance to India; and showcase the pulse of the economy through an analysis of high-frequency indicators and the heat map.

MER December Report

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