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Adopting legislative measures that raise the minimum age for consumption of tobacco products can help restrict adolescents and youth access to them.

India’s pan, tobacco, and intoxicants industry remains robust, even as the government enforces measures to curb consumption. Tobacco continues to be a significant public health risk, contributing to rising noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and economic losses. According to the NSS Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) 2023-24, consumption of pan, tobacco, and intoxicants persists across a large section of Indian households, with wide-ranging implications on household finances, education, and economic priorities. 

The scale of tobacco use

India is home to 29 per cent of the world’s tobacco users, second only to China. Tobacco-related diseases account for around 1.35 million deaths annually, making it a leading cause of preventable deaths in the country. NCDs, including heart disease, cancer, and respiratory conditions, are closely linked to tobacco and intoxicants. Data from NSS CES 2023-24 reveals that 68.3 per cent of households across the country consume tobacco and other intoxicants in some form, with the prevalence notably higher in rural areas (74.9 per cent) compared to urban areas (53.8 per cent). 

Economic costs

The economic impact of tobacco on households is profound. According to WHO estimates, in 2017-18, India lost over ₹1.7 lakh crore due to tobacco-related diseases, including healthcare costs and productivity losses from premature deaths — over three times the health allocation of the Union Budget in same period, highlighting the immense economic burden of tobacco consumption.

Beyond national-level economic losses, pan, tobacco, and intoxicants also imposes a significant financial burden on individual households. According to NSS CES 2023-24, households consuming these substances spend 4.8 per cent of their total expenditure on them — substantial when compared to the 3.6 per cent spent on education. In contrast, non-consuming households spend more on education, allocating 5.8 per cent of their total expenditure to this area.

Disparities in household expenditure

The NSS CES 2023-24 data further reveals disparities in how different income groups allocate their expenditure, particularly between households consuming pan, tobacco, and intoxicants and those that do not. When analysed by Monthly Per Capita Expenditure (MPCE) quintiles, the share of household spending on these substances remains relatively constant among their users across all income levels, ranging from4.6 per cent in Quintile 2 to 5.1 per cent in Quintile 4. This suggests that tobacco consumption is largely inelastic, meaning it is not significantly influenced by increases in household income.

However, the same cannot be said for spending on education. Among non-consuming households, education spending rises significantly as income increases, from2.8 per cent in Quintile 1 to 7.5 per cent in Quintile 5. This positive correlation between income and education investment demonstrates that non-tobacco-consuming households prioritise education as their financial capacity improves. In contrast, households consuming pan, tobacco, and intoxicants allocate less to education, even in higher-income quintiles, with spending on education peaking at 5.2 per cent in Quintile 5.

State-level data further highlights these disparities, especially in regions with high pan, tobacco, and intoxicants consumption. In north-eastern States with extremely high consumption rates, often over 90 per cent by households, the link between spending on these substances and education investment is particularly troubling. For instance, in Meghalaya (96.9 per cent), Arunachal Pradesh (93.9 per cent), and Mizoram (91.8 percent), households allocate 6.5 per cent to 8.1 per cent of their expenditure to pan, tobacco, or intoxicants, while spending on education remains very low, around 2 percent in Arunachal Pradesh and Mizoram. This imbalance diverts resources from education, worsening long-term socioeconomic challenges in these areas.

Even in States with lower prevalence of these substances, like Kerala (22.9 per cent) and Punjab (37.8 per cent), a similar pattern emerges. This disparity highlights how consumption of these substances diverts financial resources away from education, deepening long-term socioeconomic challenges. 

New strategies needed

The Cigarettes and Other Tobacco Products Act (COTPA), along with other legislative measures, has established a framework to regulate the sale and consumption of tobacco in India. While these regulations have led to a decline in overall prevalence, usage remains widespread.

According to the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) 2, 96 per cent of adults are aware of the health risks associated with smokeless tobacco. Yet, 12.4 per cent of individuals aged 15 to 24 still consume tobacco. Furthermore, The Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) 2019 further highlights that 55 per cent of lifelong tobacco users begin the habit before turning 20.

To break the deeply ingrained tobacco habits prevention efforts must target non-users, especially adolescents and youth. Young people often imitate the behaviours of their elders, making it even more vital to target this age group. NSS CES 2023-24 data, approximately 168 million individuals aged15-24 live in households that consume these products. Early exposure to nicotine significantly increases the chances of continued use into adulthood, as young brains are particularly vulnerable to addiction.

Adopting legislative measures, such as the US2019 law that raised the minimum age for tobacco sales from 18 to 21, could help restrict adolescents and youth access to tobacco products. By implementing similar strategies, India can enhance its fight against tobacco use and safeguard the health of future generations.

The writer is an Associate Fellow, National Council of Applied Economic Research.

Opinion: Barry Eichengreen.

There is now a conventional narrative in the markets about the short- and medium-term prospects of the dollar.

In the short run the dollar will continue to strengthen, as an unprecedented confluence of domestic and foreign forces push it up. Foreign exchange traders are focused on Donald Trump imposing tariffs on his return to the White House. His latest blast on his social media channel Truth Social suggests plans for tariffs of 25 per cent on imports from Canada and Mexico, and an extra 10 per cent on China.

These new taxes will shift spending by American consumers away from now more expensive foreign goods. Given record low unemployment and the limited capacity of US manufacturing to expand production, something will have to give. Namely, the dollar will have to appreciate to shift some of that spending back towards imports, which are in more elastic supply.

Moreover, extending Trump’s tax cuts enacted in his first administration as Republicans in Congress aspire to do, and then adding yet more tax cuts on tips, social security payments and who knows what else will only goose US spending still further. Given that American households disproportionately consume domestically produced goods, this will worsen the incipient excess demand for US products.

It will require yet more dollar appreciation to shift a portion of that spending towards foreign supplies.

Treasury secretary designate Scott Bessent may be a balanced budget man, and his crack team of cost cutters — Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy — have high ambitions. But if recent decades have taught us one thing, it is that cutting taxes is easier than cutting spending. The dollar’s behaviour is a clear signal that investors expect the budget deficit to widen.

Central banks of course will do nothing to moderate the dollar’s rise — on the contrary. Tariffs pushing up US import prices will be inflationary. Even if a one-time increase in tariff rates leads only to a one-time increase in prices, the Federal Reserve has learned that households dislike one-time increases in prices as much as ongoing inflation.

Having been taught this chastening lesson, the central bank will react more strongly to the next burst of inflation than it did in 2021-22. There will be tension with the new administration, no doubt, with Trump and Bessent both being Fed critics. But Jay Powell and colleagues are unlikely to be deterred.

The European Central Bank and the People’s Bank of China, meanwhile, will be quite happy to see their currencies fall. The European economy is in dire straits, and Europe lacks the political will to lend it fiscal support. The ECB, not for the first time, is the only game in town. A euro at parity against the dollar is now clearly on the cards.

Meanwhile, the good standing at home of the Chinese government of Xi Jinping rests on its ability to hit, or at least come within hailing distance of, its growth targets. With Trump clamping down on not just US-China trade but also on Chinese products assembled and routed through countries such as Malaysia and Vietnam, the blow to Chinese growth will be considerable.

To be sure, a sharply lower renminbi would dent Chinese consumer confidence and elicit aggressive action by an angry American president.  But a renminbi that falls by a limited amount, say by 10 per cent against the dollar, thereby boosting Chinese exports to other markets, might be just what Xi would want.

In the medium term, however, the dollar is likely to give back these short-term gains, and then some. Tariffs and tax policy aside, the strength of the dollar has rested on the strength of the US economy, which has consistently outperformed Europe and other parts of the world. Tariffs on imported inputs, which will impart a negative supply shock to US manufacturing, are incompatible with that strength.

Moreover, the higher interest rates adopted by the Fed to damp down inflation will not be investment friendly. Neither will eliminating the investment subsidies and tax credits of the Chips Act, the Inflation Reduction Act and other Biden-era initiatives. None of this will be good for growth.

Above all, we know that economic policy uncertainty has a strong negative effect on investment. And Trump is an uncertainty machine.

At some point, foreign exchange traders will cotton on to this fact. Clearly, then, the short- and longer-term prospects of the dollar are at odds. The key to successful investing and forecasting is identifying the turning point. If only I — and the markets — could offer more guidance on that.

The writer is professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley .

The Sundarbans, spanning approximately 10,000 square kilometres across India and Bangladesh, is not only the world’s largest contiguous mangrove forest but also a critical ecological buffer zone and a major economic asset for both countries. Situated at the confluence of the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna rivers, this unique wetland acts as a natural defence mechanism, particularly against the frequent tropical cyclones that batter the Bay of Bengal. Despite its critical ecological functions, the Sundarbans faces severe challenges, ranging from climate change to unsustainable human activities, putting millions of people and the region’s biodiversity at risk.

Functioning as the “kidneys” of the Earth, wetlands like the Sundarbans play a vital role in regulating water flow and filtering pollutants. Yet, the Sundarbans goes beyond these functions. Its dense mangrove forest diminishes the impact of storm surges and cyclones, providing essential coastal protection. Studies, including one by the World Bank, demonstrate its capacity to reduce surge heights by 4 to 16.5 centimetres, depending on the location. This has proven lifesaving during tropical cyclones like Amphan, Sidr, and Aila, which would have wreaked even greater havoc were it not for this natural barrier.

Beyond environmental resilience, the Sundarbans is an economic powerhouse. Supporting around 7.5 million people, it contributes through provisioning, regulating, and cultural services. Provisioning services — fish, wood, honey, and other resources — have been valued at $713.30 per hectare annually, while its role in air quality improvement, water purification, and storm surge protection contributes $2,584.46 per hectare each year. Cultural services, too, provide intangible benefits, valued at $151.88 per hectare. Such contributions underscore the Sundarbans’ role not only as an ecological asset but as an economic backbone for local communities.

However, climate change and unchecked human activity pose unprecedented threats to this precious ecosystem. Rising sea levels, more frequent cyclones, and increased salinity are pushing the Sundarbans to the brink. With an average elevation of only one meter, even a minor rise in sea level could devastate this region. For instance, a one-meter rise would lead to the complete submergence of the Sundarbans, eliminating its forests and displacing thousands. Records from West Bengal’s Diamond Harbour reveal a sea level rise of 3.95 mm per year since 1972, while in Bangladesh, the rate stands at 0.36 mm annually since 1977. Combined with stronger storm surges, this gradual rise could cripple the mangrove ecosystem, allowing saltwater intrusion and triggering widespread land salinity that jeopardizes drinking water sources, agriculture, and local flora and fauna.

Future climate models paint a stark picture: post-monsoon cyclones in the Bay of Bengal are projected to increase by 50% in frequency by mid-century, with higher intensities. The  Sundarbans is also experiencing fewer rainy days but more intense downpours, leading to soil erosion, sedimentation, and shifts in soil chemistry. These changes affect water purification, carbon sequestration, and habitat stability. While rising temperatures could enhance carbon sequestration, the optimal range for mangrove photosynthesis tops out at 38-40°C. With temperatures in the region rising, prolonged droughts and heat spells risk transforming the Sundarbans from a carbon sink into a carbon source, accelerating regional and global warming.

Confronting these threats requires cross-border cooperation. Despite a Memorandum of Understanding signed in 2011 by India and Bangladesh, substantial challenges remain. Discrepancies in environmental policies exacerbate the problem. For example, while India restricts the establishment of thermal power plants within a 25-kilometer radius of the Sundarbans, Bangladesh allows them as close as 10 kilometers. Consequently, the Rampal coal-fired power plant, built just 14 kilometres from the forest, poses a serious threat, as do several cement factories operating within six kilometers. Comprehensive environmental assessments must be enforced before permitting industrial activities in this sensitive area to mitigate such risks.

Additionally, the immense population that depends on the Sundarbans adds to the strain on its resources. Many locals depend on fishing, wood collection, and other extractive activities to survive, often without awareness of the environmental costs. The issue is compounded by illegal wildlife trade and poaching, further endangering biodiversity. Authorities from both nations must enforce stringent regulations to control encroachment and ensure sustainable resource use. Offering alternative livelihoods could also alleviate pressure on the forest, and targeted education campaigns could foster greater environmental stewardship among residents.

The decline of the Sundarbans would be catastrophic for both India and Bangladesh. Losing this natural defence would expose millions to the full brunt of climate change impacts, including intensified cyclones, flooding, and loss of biodiversity. The Sundarbans is not merely a geographical asset; it is an irreplaceable lifeline that underscores the interconnectedness of ecological health and human resilience. Protecting it is not just an environmental obligation but a matter of regional survival.

The future of the Sundarbans rests in a united approach. For the people of both Bengal, the Goddess of the Forest stands as both protector and provider. If we fail to protect her, we risk facing an unspeakable loss that will resonate far beyond the borders of these two nations. It is time for policymakers, citizens, and the international community to come together, prioritize the Sundarbans, and commit to preserving this invaluable ecosystem for generations to come. Saving the Sundarbans is, ultimately, an act of self-preservation.

Tamanna Akter Tithi is associated with Dhaka University, Milan Mathew is associated with IUSS, Pavia and Raktimava Bose is associated with NCAER, Delhi. Views are personal.