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While lithium-ion batteries have enabled the expansion of renewable energy storage so far, these are now confronting physical and chemical barriers. In this post, Mitra and Pohit put forth that the clean energy sector has successfully transitioned to a multi-chemistry ecosystem that leverages both physical materials and artificial intelligence. They highlight the opportunity that this paradigm shift presents for India to secure a self-reliant energy future. ‍

The global push toward clean energy currently depends almost entirely on standard lithium-ion batteries. This dominant technology has successfully launched the initial wave of electric vehicles (EVs) and expanded renewable energy storage. Until now, the industry has utilised it as a universal solution for nearly all power storage requirements. 

However, this singular approach is now confronting strict physical and chemical barriers. Standard lithium-ion cells have essentially reached the absolute limit of the energy they can safely contain. The global market demands much higher capacities, but pushing traditional designs to hold more power yields rapidly diminishing returns. More critically, attempting to extract additional capacity inherently compromises the thermal stability of the cell, which significantly elevates safety risks such as overheating and fires. 

Consequently, the energy storage sector is undergoing a necessary and profound structural shift. The global industry is officially abandoning the search for a single universal battery to solve every power problem. Instead, the technological trajectory is pivoting toward a highly diversified system. The future relies on deploying a fragmented matrix of specialised batteries. In this new paradigm, different chemical architectures are precisely engineered and optimised for distinct operational environments and specific jobs. 

The three new “post-lithium” contenders

Three primary post-lithium technologies are currently emerging to lead this new energy ecosystem. Each individual architecture targets a specific industrial bottleneck by optimising a different performance axis, ensuring that specific applications receive tailored storage tools. 

The first major advancement is solid-state battery technology, which functions as the distance runner of the energy storage world. Standard batteries rely on a volatile internal liquid to transfer power, which can leak or catch fire under heavy stress. Solid-state designs completely replace this liquid with safe, solid compounds. This structural shift provides two massive advantages. First, it completely suppresses the risk of catastrophic fires, making the device exceptionally stable. Second, it allows the cell to pack immense amounts of energy into a remarkably small and lightweight footprint. Because they deliver maximum energy capacity per kilogram, solid-state systems are perfect for heavy transportation sectors. They are ideally suited for luxury electric vehicles that require an extended driving range exceeding 1,000 kilometres on a single charge, as well as for the strict weight limitations of aerospace engineering and electric aircraft. 

The second major contender is the sodium-ion battery, which operates as the budget-friendly workhorse of the clean energy transition. Instead of relying on expensive and highly concentrated lithium reserves, these systems are built using sodium, a globally abundant material that behaves similarly to common table salt. On a physical level, sodium-ion cells are heavier and possess a lower energy density than traditional lithium alternatives. However, they offer extraordinary economic and operational benefits. They are dramatically less expensive to manufacture, virtually non-flammable, and capable of retaining their power capacity in extreme cold temperatures as low as minus 40 degrees Celsius. Because physical footprint and weight are secondary concerns for stationary power units, sodium-ion technology is the ideal solution for stabilising national electricity grids that manage wind and solar energy. 

The third major breakthrough is the silicon-enhanced battery, which serves as the ultimate sprinter of the group. Unlike completely new cell designs, this technology is an immediate upgrade that can drop directly into existing manufacturing lines. It replaces traditional internal graphite components with advanced silicon materials. The primary advantage of silicon is its ability to accept and transfer electrical current at an unprecedented pace. This capability effectively solves the long charging times that slow down widespread consumer adoption. By integrating silicon, everyday passenger vehicles can charge to 80% capacity in less than 10 minutes, while specialised aerospace models can achieve this in just six minutes. This technology provides maximum convenience for daily commuters and high-performance electronic devices. 

To easily compare how these three distinct technologies fit into our daily lives, we can evaluate them based on their specific strengths and trade-offs (Figure 1). As the data show, the energy market is fracturing into specialised roles where no single battery is expected to do everything. 

‍Figure 1. Heatmap illustrating the application suitability matrix for post-lithium battery architectures

Source: Authors’ creation. These scores are derived based on technical performance metrics from the International Energy Agency and Bloomberg NEF against the specific economic and operational constraints of each application market.

Ultimately, the global industry is segmenting into distinct technological silos. The future energy market will rely on a matrix where solid-state maximises total travel distance, sodium-ion minimises levelised economic costs, and silicon-enhanced integration accelerates charging speeds. 

Software is the new hardware

The physical chemistry of a battery represents only half of the energy storage equation. The other critical half relies entirely on advanced software. Modern energy storage systems have officially transitioned from passive hardware components into complex cyber-physical units. The internal management software now serves as the essential brain of the battery, proving that digital optimisation is just as vital as material science for extending operational life and performance. 

Furthermore, smart management algorithms directly improve daily economic value by actively maximising operational efficiency. Batteries operate most efficiently within a highly specific temperature range. Artificial intelligence continuously monitors real-world driving habits and external weather conditions to dynamically adjust the internal cooling and heating mechanisms. By keeping the cell within its optimal thermal envelope, these smart management systems extract 5-10% more usable driving range from the exact same battery pack. This software-driven efficiency gain requires zero additional raw materials, making it an incredibly cost-effective method to boost overall capacity. 

Geopolitics and India’s golden opportunity

The global transition toward clean energy has inadvertently created a fragile geopolitical landscape characterised by severe resource concentration. Under the current technological framework, the production of standard lithium-ion batteries relies heavily on a narrow selection of critical minerals, primarily lithium, cobalt, and nickel. The extraction and refining of these vital resources are highly concentrated within a small number of specific nations. This extreme geographic monopoly leaves the global supply chain highly vulnerable to trade disruptions, unexpected export restrictions, and sudden political conflicts. For developing nations actively expanding their transport sectors, this situation creates a dangerous mineral trap where domestic energy security becomes entirely dependent on foreign mineral policies and volatile global market prices. 

To resolve this systemic vulnerability, economic strategists advocate for a profound industrial strategy known as technological leapfrogging. Instead of investing massive capital to build large factories for traditional lithium-ion cells, emerging economies like India have a unique window to skip this developmental stage entirely. Global competitors already possess insurmountable economies of scale in older lithium technologies. By deliberately redirecting state subsidies and domestic capital investments away from older chemistries, domestic manufacturers can invest directly in next generation storage platforms. This strategic pivot allows the nation to build entirely new supply networks from the ground up, utilising alternative materials that are completely insulated from global resource shortages. 

India’s clean energy trajectory highlights the profound long-term impact of this strategic shift. By moving away from a reliance on traditional critical minerals, the country is positioned to systematically reduce its external vulnerabilities over the next few years (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Projection of India’s strategic pivot from mineral import dependency toward domestic self-reliance

Source: Authors’ creation.

Sodium-ion technology represents the ultimate vehicle for this leapfrogging strategy. Unlike lithium, which is geologically scarce and fully imported, sodium is an abundant and easily accessible element. India can harvest the essential raw inputs for sodium-ion cells directly from its vast domestic rock salt deposits and extensive coastal seawater resources. This baseline availability offers a direct pathway to complete resource independence. 

Furthermore, the physical characteristics of sodium chemistry perfectly match India’s geographic realities. Standard lithium batteries are highly sensitive to extreme heat, creating severe fire risks during intense tropical summers. In sharp contrast, sodium-ion cells possess exceptional thermal stability, maintaining safe operations under elevated temperatures. Additionally, because sodium-ion batteries offer a superior cycle life and a remarkably low lifetime cost, they are the most economically viable solution for stabilising India’s rapidly expanding decentralised renewable energy grid. By tailoring industrial policy to these realities, India can transform a supply chain crisis into domestic clean energy leadership. 

Conclusion

The year 2026 marks a definitive inflection point in global energy storage, officially concluding the era of a monolithic lithium-ion dependency. The clean energy sector has successfully transitioned into a highly optimised, multi-chemistry ecosystem where physical materials and advanced artificial intelligence work in tandem to maximise performance. 

Ultimately, the future of power storage is diverse, smart, and localised. The commercialisation of post-lithium platforms proves that capacity gains will be driven as much by algorithmic efficiency as by material science. For emerging economies, navigating this complex technological shift offers a critical window for structural autonomy. By aggressively embracing specialised chemical architectures, deploying smart digital twin software, and establishing strategic domestic supply networks, nations can effectively bypass foreign mineral monopolies. This comprehensive paradigm shift allows countries to secure a clean, highly resilient, and entirely self-reliant energy future. 

‍The views expressed do not necessarily reflect that of the authors’ organisation or the I4I Editorial Board. Views are peesonal.

Gallium and germanium may never command the political attention accorded to oil or lithium. Yet they are indispensable to the industries that will define future economic competitiveness

Empires were once forged in iron, fuelled by coal, and secured by oil. Today, strategic power increasingly rests on materials so obscure that few outside scientific circles can even pronounce their names. Among them, gallium and germanium occupy a unique position. They rarely feature in policy debates, command no headlines unlike lithium or rare earths, and are traded in relatively small quantities. But without them, much of the modern digital economy would cease to function.

For India, these two minerals represent both an opportunity and a vulnerability.

Germanium is indispensable for fibre-optic cables, infrared optics, thermal imaging devices, satellite systems, and advanced solar technologies. Gallium forms the backbone of gallium nitride and gallium arsenide semiconductors that power 5G telecommunications, elec­tric vehicles, radar systems, aerospace electronics, and high-performance computing.

As India expands its ambitions in semiconductor manufacturing, AI, telecommunications infrastructure, and defence modernisation, demand for these materials is expected to rise sharply. Yet the country remains heavily dependent on external sources for their supply.

Trade data reveal a concerning reality. In 2024, India imported more than US $36 million worth of germanium oxide-related products, with China accounting for nearly 40% of these imports. For several germanium products and refined gallium compounds, India remains almost entirely dependent on foreign suppliers.

Such dependence would be manageable in a stable world. But today’s geopolitical environment is increasingly defined by strategic competition, technological rivalry, and supply-chain fragmentation.

The global debate on critical minerals often centres on mining. Yet mining is only the first step. The real source of strategic leverage lies in processing and refining, the stages that convert raw materials into ultra-high-purity inputs for semiconductors, defence electronics, and advanced manufacturing. China recognised this reality long ago. Today, China controls roughly 80% of global refined gallium production and remains one of the leading processors of germanium.

India is not without advantages. It possesses substantial bauxite reserves, ranks among the world’s leading aluminium producers, and has significant zinc refining capacity. The industrial streams from these sectors already contain the raw material from which gallium and germanium can be recovered. But India currently lacks commercial-scale, ultra-high-purity zone-refining facilities required to produce semiconductor-grade gallium and germanium. Zone refining is a highly specialised process that removes microscopic impurities from metals. Consequently, India’s challenge is not one of geology but metallurgy. The country possesses the feedstock but lacks the complete processing ecosystem needed to convert industrial by-products into globally competitive strategic materials.

The priority should be establishing recovery facilities linked to existing aluminium refineries and zinc smelters. Second, India must invest in advanced processing capabilities, including solvent extraction systems, chlorination-distillation facilities, high-purity refining infrastructure, and zone-refining technologies. Third, recycling and urban mining must become integral components of India’s critical mineral strategy. Finally, improved trade intelligence and material tracking are essential.

Gallium and germanium may never command the political attention accorded to oil or even lithium. Yet they are indispensable to the industries that will define future economic competitiveness, military capability, and technological leadership.

Sanjib Pohit is a Professor and Sovini Mondal a Research Associate at the National Council of Applied Economic Research. Views are personal.

Discussions of population devolve into debates about childbearing and ultimately centre on women’s bodies. Modern global discourse emphasises a return to traditional ways of life

Visions of population explosion or implosion seem to provoke strong passions. Three centuries ago, Malthus argued that population growth would outpace the food supply, leading to famine and disease. Today, the focus seems to have shifted to concerns about underpopulation in India and globally. Elon Musk even claims that population collapse poses a much greater risk than global warming.

This is a strange turnaround. In the 1800s, the world population was a billion, and life expectancy was less than 30 years. Despite the population growing to over 8 billion, Malthus’s doomsday predictions have not materialised, and life expectancy now exceeds 70. Are fears of a shrinking workforce equally flimsy? Just as improvements in agriculture and the Green Revolution have continued to feed the world, it seems highly likely that AI and other technological advances will cope with a smaller workforce.

However, the harm to the social fabric from these overblown claims may be incalculable. Discussions of population devolve into debates about childbearing and ultimately centre on women’s bodies. Malthus advocated chastity for women to reduce fertility. Modern global discourse emphasises a return to traditional ways of life, controlling access to contraception, and sometimes criminalises abortion. The Indian discourse echoes the global disconnect, with some unique twists, leaving fear and dissension in its wake. Hence, it is important to address some of these fears directly.

First, is India on the verge of depopulation, as a recent article suggests? If we accept the United Nations projections using their medium variant, the Indian population will grow to 1.7 billion and then decline by the end of the 21st century, returning to the present level of about 1.4 billion. However, projections from the Seattle-based Institute for Health Metrics (IHME) suggest it will dip below 1 billion. Unfortunately, IHME projections assume that future college graduates will follow the same path to low fertility as current graduates and that increasing education will further reduce fertility. But between 2015-16 and 2019-21, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for women with 12 more years of education held steady at 1.7, while that for women with lower levels of education dropped. A narrowing gap between educated and less-educated women has been observed in many countries, undermining confidence in the IHME methodology.

Second, with an ageing population, will India face a worker shortage? Projections from the Population Foundation of India indicate that the share of the population aged 60 and older will rise from 11 per cent to 28 per cent between 2021 and 2051. However, this will be offset by a decline in the child population, and the working-age population will decline only slightly from 66 per cent to 64 per cent. With an AI-led increase in productivity and the potential to recruit women workers who are largely outside the formal labour force, even this slight decline should pose no problem.

Third, is the population in north India growing faster than that in south India, and if so, will it diminish the power of southern states in the Indian Union? South India experienced a fertility decline earlier than the north. For example, in 1971, Tamil Nadu accounted for 7.5 per cent of India’s population; by 2011, it had dropped to 6 per cent, and it is likely to have declined further by 2026. Consequently, if electoral seat allocation is based on population share in 2026 rather than 1971, the southern states will lose. But it is also important to remember that higher economic growth, driven by low population growth and increased investment in children, has increased productivity in states like Tamil Nadu. Sanjeev Sanyal estimates that Tamil Nadu’s share of GDP grew from 7.1 per cent in the 1990s to 8.9 per cent in 2023-24. Balancing economic and demographic power and ensuring adequate representation of geographic minorities is a challenge that will need to be addressed in the coming years.

Fourth, is the Muslim population in India likely to overtake the Hindu population? Muslim fertility is slightly higher than Hindu fertility, but across the three waves of the National Family Health Survey between 2005 and 2021, both communities have seen a similar decline in TFR of about 0.7, leaving the Hindu-Muslim fertility gap unchanged. Rudimentary calculations suggest that even after 50 years, this fertility differential, if unchanged, would result in a small increase in the share of the Muslim population in India from about 15 per cent to 19 per cent. It seems more likely that Muslim fertility will follow a path similar to that of Hindus, and the increase will be smaller.

The above discussion suggests the need for a cautious, balanced approach to adapting to population change and for avoiding aggressive rhetoric that does more harm than good. Consider the discourse on declining fertility, which has led to political calls for a return to traditional values and for deprioritising contraception and child bonuses.

India stands in stark contrast to countries like Japan. Faced with an inflexible gender culture and work-family constraints, nearly 30 per cent of Japanese women remain unmarried into their 30s. In contrast, marriage and family remain the linchpin of Indian family life. The NFHS shows that 97 per cent of women are married by age 30. Yet the very importance of family also leads to smaller families. My research with Alaka Basu shows that parents often choose to have a single child so they can invest more in that child’s education. Reducing educational costs, improving the quality of education, and easing the burden on parents to supervise homework may do more to increase fertility than a call for higher fertility.

The writer is professor, University of Maryland, and NCAER. Views are personal