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Our climate vision demands a radical rethink: Balancing growth with sustainability while challenging global norms and pushing for equitable solutions.

India, the world’s third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, finds itself at the crossroads of development and environmental sustainability. The global approach to climate change, heavily focused on reducing carbon emissions through renewable energy adoption, overlooks India’s unique socio-economic and geographical challenges.

This one-size-fits all strategy is fundamentally flawed and could undermine the effectiveness of India’s climate efforts, as argued in the Economic Survey 2023-24. The global strategy to combat climate change revolves around climate adaptation and mitigation, with an emphasis on renewable energy, energy efficiency and cutting methane emissions. While these goals are attainable for developed countries, they are far more challenging for India. The country’s population exceeds 1.4 billion, and the demand for energy to fuel its development is immense.

Despite this, India’s per capita emissions remain at around 2.8 tonnes of CO2 equivalent per year, compared to eight tonnes in the EU and 16 tonness in the US. Renewable energy sources such as solar and wind are often seen as the ultimate solution to climate change. However, the transition to renewables is not without significant challenges. For instance, the production of solar panels and wind turbines requires substantial amounts of rare earth metals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel. These materials are primarily extracted from countries with poor labour and environmental standards. The extraction process is energy-intensive and environmentally destructive, leading to a paradox where the pursuit of clean energy contributes to environmental degradation.

Moreover, renewable energy sources are intermittent. Solar and wind power generation depends on weather conditions, necessitating substantial storage capacities to ensure a stable power supply. This storage requirement further exacerbates the environmental impact, as battery production involves additional mining and resource extraction. India faces a unique set of challenges in its quest to reduce carbon emissions. The country’s heavy reliance on coal for industrial processes, power generation, and transportation makes transitioning to cleaner energy sources particularly difficult.

Approximately 70 per cent of India’s electricity comes from coal, highlighting the scale of the challenge. The financial burden of this transition is another major hurdle. Developing countries such as India require approximately $6 trillion by 2030 to meet their climate targets. However, only $100 billion was pledged by developed nations till 2020, with an actual provision of just $83.3 billion. This financing gap makes it nearly impossible for India to make the necessary investments in clean energy infrastructure and technology.

A critical flaw in the current climate strategy is its failure to address overconsumption in developed countries. High-income nations are responsible for the majority of global emissions, with the top 10 per cent of emitters averaging 22 tonnes of CO2 per year, over 200 times the emissions of the bottom 10 per cent. Despite this, the focus remains on technological solutions rather than addressing the root cause of the problem: excessive consumption.

For instance, the average American consumes 12,700 kWh of electricity annually, compared to just 185 kWh in Africa. This disparity underscores the need for a more holistic approach to climate action that includes lifestyle changes and reduced consumption in developed countries, alongside technological advancements. India must advocate for a climate strategy that reflects its developmental needs and capabilities. This involves investing in clean energy technologies that are suited to its unique context, such as small-scale solar and wind projects, improving energy efficiency in industries, and promoting sustainable agricultural practices.

Additionally, India should leverage its position as a leader in the Global South to push for more equitable climate policies that hold developed nations accountable for their historical emissions and current consumption patterns. To truly address the climate crisis, the global community must adopt a more nuanced and equitable approach. This includes recognisng the historical emissions of developed countries and providing adequate financial and technological support to developing nations. It also means shifting the focus from merely substituting fossil fuels with renewables to promoting sustainable consumption and lifestyle changes.

The current global approach to climate change is fundamentally flawed and insufficient to address the unique challenges faced by India. A more equitable and sustainable strategy is needed—one that recognises the interconnected nature of climate, development, and consumption and provides the necessary support for all nations to achieve their climate goals.

India’s climate strategy must be rethought to ensure that it is not only effective but also just and inclusive, allowing the country to continue its development while contributing to global climate efforts.

Souryabrata Mohapatra is an Associate Fellow at NCAER in New Delhi.

India stands out as a beacon of hope, demonstrating unwavering commitment through innovative climate initiatives and sustainable practices.

This year’s record spell of an intense heatwave in Delhi, during which temperatures touched 50°C, highlighted concerns over the adverse effects of climate change globally. India remains a beacon of hope through its actions as part of the global efforts to stem climate change. Through myriad initiatives, the country has demonstrated its unwavering commitment to environmental sustainability.

India’s journey toward climate action began in 2009 when the country voluntarily pledged to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 20-25% by 2020 compared to 2005 levels. Impressively, India achieved a 24% reduction within the stipulated timeframe. In alignment with the Paris Agreement, India submitted its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the UNFCCC in 2015, setting forth eight ambitious targets for 2021-2030, further reinforcing its commitment to combating climate change.

Tree plantation and forest conservation are at the heart of India’s environmental efforts. Through programs like the National Mission for Green India and the Compensatory Afforestation Fund Management and Planning Authority (CAMPA), India encourages the use of barren land for tree plantations.

The country ranks third globally in net forest area gain, with 21.71% of its geographical area covered by forests. Initiatives like the Green Credit Program further incentivize tree plantation and forest restoration. India’s commitment to wetland conservation is equally impressive, with 80 designated Ramsar sites. The Mangrove Initiative for Shoreline Habitats and Tangible Incomes (MISHTI) aims to promote and conserve mangroves, which are vital for carbon storage and marine biodiversity.

The country has implemented the Plastic Waste Management Amendment Rules, 2021, banning the use of single-use plastics. Renewable energy is another area in which India excels. The National Green Hydrogen Mission, launched in January 2023, aims to position India as a leader in green hydrogen technology. The country ranks fourth globally in renewable energy capacity.

India’s environmental initiatives extend beyond its borders. The country plays a pivotal role in global platforms such as the Global Alliance for Circular Economy and Resource Efficiency. India has made notable strides in addressing climate change, earning a commendable 7th place in this year’s Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI), up one spot from last year, making it one of the highest performers globally.

India’s high ranking in the GHG Emissions and Energy Use categories underscores the country’s efforts to manage its environmental impact despite its large population. Notably, India’s per capita emissions remain relatively low, aligning with global benchmarks aimed at limiting temperature rise to well below 2°C above the pre-industrial average.

However, the path forward is complex, and critical areas still require focused attention and accelerated action. India continues to rely heavily on coal, oil, and gas to meet its growing energy demands. This dependence is a major contributor to GHG emissions and severe air pollution, especially in urban areas. While there is a slight positive trend in the adoption of renewable energy, the pace of this transition is too slow to meet urgent climate goals.

Despite high marks in emissions and energy use, India receives a medium rating in Climate Policy and Renewable Energy. The country has clear long-term policies focusing on renewable energy, including the domestic manufacturing of renewable energy components. Yet, the implementation of these policies needs to be more effective.

The COP26 announcement by Prime Minister Modi, setting a net-zero emissions target for 2070, has been criticized by experts for lacking ambition. The call for a faster phase-out of coal, reduced reliance on gas, and a significant expansion of renewable energy is strong.

India’s heavy reliance on coal presents a significant challenge. Despite high taxes on petrol and diesel, consumption has not decreased. Some experts view these taxes as effective, while others highlight the government’s dependence on the revenue they generate.

The rephrasing from ‘phase-out’ to ‘phase-down’ for fossil fuels, championed by India and China at the last COP, was a setback for global climate commitments. Large-scale renewable energy projects in India have also faced criticism for negatively affecting local communities through land grabs and unequal resource distribution. Policies have been largely mitigative rather than transformative, often overlooking adaptation and disaster risk management. There is a growing call for policies that incorporate ecosystem-based solutions and prioritize equity, ensuring that climate actions benefit all segments of society. India needs a more bottom-up approach to policy implementation, incorporating the needs and demands of tribal and rural communities.

Souryabrata Mohapatra is an associate fellow at NCAER. Views are personal.

India proved that development is the best contraceptive. Now, we need to focus on adapting to the demographic destiny through careful planning.

We’ve made the right choices, the next step is fixing the pieces of the population puzzle.

There is often a gap between public posturing and private reality. This disconnect in the context of India’s population growth—a crucial element of its future development journey—is particularly striking. At the World Population Conference in 1974, India took a strong stance against Western emphasis on population control, with Dr Karan Singh, then a Union minister, famously stating, “development is the best contraceptive.” However, two years later, the same government initiated a coercive sterilization programme that contributed to the downfall of the Indira Gandhi government.

Since then, the population discourse has centered around a paternalistic approach to convincing “irrational” parents that their lives would be better with fewer children. Ironically, as socioeconomic development fuelled parental aspirations, and improvements in health cur-tailed child deaths, Indian parents quickly limited their families voluntarily. The first National Family Health Survey (NFHS) of 1992-93 reported the total fertility rate (TFR) as 3.4, a finding that was received with scepticism since prevailing wisdom expected it to be considerably higher. Since 1992-93, fertility has declined to the “hum do, humare do” mark (close to 2).

Given the success of the initial mission, why does population growth continue to occupy so much public attention? As India forges the next leg of its development path, with demography a key puzzle piece, three narratives deserve particular attention.

The first relates to India becoming the most populous nation on Earth and population size being seen as an obstacle to development. With an estimated 1.4 billion people, India has overtaken China. Despite fertility declining to replacement level, India’s population will continue to grow for some time due to large generations born in the past. It is expected to peak at around 1.7 billion in 2064 before declining.

Will this hamper economic growth? Should we encourage families to have a single child? China’s experiment with the one-child policy is enough to dissuade us. A sharp reduction in children born today would lead to very small cohorts of workers in three decades and increase the dependency burden.

A second, almost diametrically opposite, narrative argues about the economic growth that a large working age population can generate and that demographic dividend will only last for a limited time. The demographic dividend is a term used to characterize temporary benefits of fertility decline where a larger working-age population supports a relatively small number of children and elderly, generating economic surplus.

However, this is a temporary phenomenon, and could become counterproductive as these workers age. This has created an urgency to ensure we make the best use of our demographic dividend by investing in the skills of our workforce.

While we must invest in a skilled work-force, it is surprising that the discussion of demographic dividend ignores a vast pool of workers: India’s women. Women’s employment in India is low, and those who are employed are often limited to family farms and petty businesses like sewing or handicraft; barely 11% of Indian women are wage workers.

Hence, instead of worrying about the end of the demographic dividend, we should harvest the gender dividend by improving women’s participation in wage work, particularly since the fertility decline has reduced childcare responsibilities.

The third narrative centres around population distribution across states. Kerala was the first to reduce infant mortality, triggering fertility decline. Tamil Nadu and Goa were not far behind. Today, 30 states have a TFR below 2. However, the TFR in some of the populous states in the Hindi-speaking heart-land is still above 2, resulting in the redistribution of population share between the South and North.

Should a stronger population control policy be implemented to redress these imbalances? We argue that there is little need for it. Fertility has declined in all regions and for all groups. For example, the TFR in Uttar Pradesh, the state with the highest fertility in 1992-93, fell from 4.82 to 2.35 by 2019-21. Further fertility reduction can be achieved easily by expanding reproductive health services and education.

Inter-regional population distribution is linked to the distribution of political and economic resources. The allocation of parliamentary seats was frozen using population data from the 1971 Census, resulting in disparities in the number of constituents represented by each member of Parliament across states. Southern states fear that if this were to be recalibrated to equalize representation, they would lose seats and political power to the North. Moreover, since the Centre-state resource-sharing formula depends on population size, they may also suffer financial losses. As they see it, using population size for these allocations rewards states that performed poorly in reducing fertility.

These are legitimate concerns that can only be addressed by carefully crafted consensus. Political representation challenges can be addressed by allocating a fixed number of seats to each state in Rajya Sabha to ensure their interests are represented. In contrast, Lok Sabha seat allocation may depend on population size. Resource-sharing formulas may want to recognize that the future of the Indian workforce will come from the demographically lagging states.

Our estimates suggest that in 2021 in Bihar, there were 165 persons of working ages (15-64 years) to support 100 persons of dependent age groups, while Tamil Nadu had 248 working-age persons to support the same dependent population. This will flip in 2051, with the ratio changing to 229 in Bihar and 188 in Tamil Nadu.

Consequently, even as the demo-graphic dividend ends in southern states, it will continue to build in northern states, resulting in higher contribution to the economy. Should we not consider these future benefits and ensure that children in northern states are well-nourished and educated?

Over time, India’s population will age. In 2021, about 6% of the population consists of individuals above 65, which will increase to about 15% by 2051 and reach a high of 30% by the end of the century. This rising burden of an ageing population will require careful restructuring of our financial safety nets and health services to ensure that their sunset years are happy and healthy.

India can take pride in achieving a demographic transformation through the cumulation of voluntary choices made by millions of parents in their family’s best interests. We must now focus on adapting to our demographic destiny through careful planning and modulated narratives.

Sonalde Desai is a professor at the University of Maryland and the National Council of Applied Economic Research. Purushottam Kulkarni is a retired professor of Jawaharlal Nehru University. Views are personal.