Green gambit: India’s ambitious attempt to achieve net zero

While exceeding solar power targets and promoting sustainable lifestyles, India grapples with financing gaps and policy implementation challenges.

Net Zero plan: India is vigorously striving not only to cut greenhouse gas emissions but also to improve the quality of life for its people. Its diverse topography and ecosystems render it especially susceptible to calamities triggered by climate change. The blistering heatwaves of May and June 2024, among the hottest on record, underscore the urgency of the situation. Ranked as the 7th most climate-affected nation by the Global Climate Risk Index 2021, India’s imperative is clear – it must fortify its climate resilience.

From 2010 to 2015, China outpaced other countries in announcing climate policies, yet India emerged as the leader in subsequent years. India’s robust climate policy framework includes landmark initiatives such as the Energy Conservation Act of 2001, amended in 2022 to mandate non-fossil energy sources and establish energy efficiency standards for buildings and vehicles. The National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC), launched in 2008, drives ecological sustainability through missions like the National Solar Mission and the National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture. By 2023, the National Solar Mission had achieved over 50 GW of solar power capacity, a significant stride toward the 100 GW target, though still 32 GW short.

India’s net zero plans

India’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement pledges net zero emissions by 2070. Ambitious goals include a 45% reduction in GDP emissions intensity from 2005 levels by 2030, sourcing 50% of electric power from non-fossil fuels, and creating a carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonne of CO2 equivalent through afforestation. Additional non-quantified aims focus on promoting sustainable lifestyles and bolstering climate adaptation investments.

However, policy implementation gaps persist. The Energy Conservation (Amendment) Bill, overseen by the Ministry of Power, raises concerns about regulatory efficacy, traditionally managed by the Ministry of Environment, Forest, and Climate Change (MoEFCC) in other countries. Solar rooftop installations, at 6.7 GW, fall significantly short of the 40 GW target for 2022. The Green India Mission has also underperformed, achieving only 70% of its afforestation targets from 2015-2021, with states like West Bengal and Himachal Pradesh lagging in participation.

To meet its NDC goals, India needs an estimated USD 2.5 trillion by 2030. Yet, climate finance remains insufficient, with only 25% of the annual target achieved in FY 2019-20. International investments are also lacking, making up just 13% and 17% of the required total in 2019 and 2020, respectively, due to high hedging costs and the absence of a standardised green finance taxonomy. Institutional bottlenecks further hamper effective policy execution, necessitating improved coordination and capacity building across ministries and departments.

Some states, like Chhattisgarh, have set commendable examples with cross-sectoral initiatives such as Narva (river conservation), Ghurva (composting), Garva (livestock management), and Bari (backyard farming), which have significantly enhanced local climate resilience in over 1,000 villages. Moving forward, India must prioritise ending coal support, protecting carbon-rich ecosystems, and expanding solar projects, including floating solar and offshore wind initiatives. The Indo-German Energy Forum exemplifies successful international cooperation, resulting in renewable energy projects with a combined capacity of over 1.5 GW.

As the third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases in 2020, India faces a pivotal moment. With emissions projected to peak between 2040-2045, a strategic approach is essential for transitioning from coal to green energy, managing forests sustainably, and securing financial and political backing for effective climate policies. Regional, national, and global cooperation is crucial to achieving India’s climate resilience and sustainable development goals, ensuring a thriving future for the planet. With targeted investments and strategic policy adjustments, India can lead the way towards a sustainable and resilient future.

India’s commitment to climate action has advanced with the Green Credit Program, incentivising sustainable practices to support its Paris Agreement goals. This program rewards companies and individuals for environmentally friendly activities, such as afforestation, renewable energy projects, and sustainable agriculture, allowing them to earn tradable credits to offset their emissions.

Challenges like illegal mining still threaten environmental integrity and the rule of law, demanding stronger policies. Early on, India engaged the private sector in its solar ambitions, attracting $130 billion in investments since 2004, transforming the country into a manufacturing hub for solar panels and creating green jobs. State-level renewable energy purchase obligations and incentives have provided a blueprint for other emerging markets.

India’s rapid expansion in the e-bus market, supported by subsidies for electric and hybrid vehicles, has led to the procurement of nearly 3,500 buses across nine major cities, with additional tenders for 2,100 more in Mumbai alone. The goal of solar power contributing 30% to power generation by 2040 marks a notable achievement. Through innovative climate policies like e-bus market growth and the Lifestyle for Environment (LiFE) initiative promoting sustainable living, India is making significant strides toward a sustainable future.

Souryabrata Mohapatra is an associate fellow at NCAER. Views are personal.

Rethinking Social Safety Nets in a Changing Society

With a growing economy and declining poverty, India faces a curious challenge in providing a social safety net to its citizens. Using data from three rounds of the India Human Development Survey (IHDS), collected in 2004-5, 2011-12, and 2022-24, this paper shows that households face considerable transition in and out of poverty as the economy grows.  Historically, India’s approach to social safety nets has involved identifying the poor and providing them with priority access to various social protection programmes that include both in-kind and cash assistance—however, the nature of poverty changes with economic growth. This churn in households’ economic circumstances makes it difficult to identify and target the poor precisely.

Traditional approaches to identifying the poor through the provision of Below Poverty Line (BPL) cards, now dubbed priority cards, assume long-term stability of poverty and tend to focus on chronically poor households that usually come from poor regions or have enduring characteristics that predispose them to poverty (e.g., belonging to Scheduled Castes and Tribes). The IHDS data shows that with a decline in chronic poverty, transient poverty begins to dominate. This suggests that our approach to social protection must pay greater attention to circumstances of life that push people into poverty rather than circumstances of birth associated with social identity or region of birth.  This paper discusses various approaches to providing safety nets and examines the experiences of some critical programs in reaching the poor.

This paper was presented at the India Policy Forum (IPF) in July 2024

India’s Foreign Reserves and Global Risk

India accumulated a sizable stock of foreign reserves over the past two decades, in common with many other emerging economies. Its current reserves comfortably surpass conventional thresholds for adequacy used by the International Monetary Fund and others. An assessment of whether the stock of reserves is appropriate should depend on an evaluation of the benefits and costs of reserves looking forward. Reserves provide self-insurance against sudden financial outflows by non-resident investors or resident savers and liquidity for managing exchange rates. While India’s reserves appear to be ample for meeting both these needs, additional reserves can reduce vulnerability to capital flow reversals that can be crisis inducing. The empirical analysis of India’s external portfolio capital flows finds that reserves lower outflows in the event of global financial distress at the margin. Reserve holdings reduce the volatility of portfolio debt flows in response to relative policy interest rate shocks. The results indicate that additions to reserves reduce the economy’s exposure to global financial risk. The precautionary benefits of reserves could well increase as India becomes further integrated to international financial markets. Estimates of the costs of holding reserves give evidence that increases in the reserves to output ratio reduce the risk premium on reserves, so that the sovereign interest rate spread overestimates the marginal cost of reserves.

This paper was presented at the India Policy Forum (IPF) in July 2024

Charting the path to a developed India: Viksit Bharat 2047

How can India leverage its potential and implement effective strategies to become a developed nation by 2047? In his 2022 Independence Day speech, the Prime Minister (PM) outlined an ambitious vision for transforming the nation into a developed country by 2047—‘Viksit Bharat (VB)’. It aims to reshape India into a technologically advanced, economically strong and socially inclusive nation. This paper delves into the various aspects of VB, examining the critical strategies and policies required to achieve this transformation. It highlights significant progress in green energy, infrastructure development and socio-economic programmes and discusses the necessary reforms to achieve Viksit Bharat and a $30 trillion economy. The goal of achieving a $30 trillion economy by 2047 is a cornerstone of the VB vision, encompassing a broad vision for holistic development, renovating India into a prosperous, inclusive and sustainable nation. The study explores India’s unique opportunities in the context of its demographic dividend, technological advancements and socioeconomic initiatives. By drawing insights from historical transformations, the paper presents a strategic roadmap for India, emphasising the importance of coordinated efforts across energy, infrastructure, agriculture, services and governance sectors. It underscores the interlinked nature of these initiatives and the vital role of governance, technology and economic growth in realising ‘India@2047’—India’s future on the occasion of its 100th anniversary of independence. This paper provides a comprehensive guide for policymakers, outlining the path to a prosperous and developed India.

Growing Economy, Coalition Govt: India’s Path To A Developed Nation

As India stands on the cusp of an unprecedented political milestone with the Prime Minister poised to win a historic third term, the nation’s gaze shifts towards the ambitious vision of ‘Viksit Bharat’ (Developed India) by 2047. The cornerstone of the Viksit Bharat vision is achieving a $30 trillion economy by 2047, which would elevate India’s per capita income to $18,000-$20,000. In order to reach this goal, the nation needs to leverage its demographic dividend, technological advancements, and socioeconomic initiatives. This transformation is anchored on holistic development across various sectors, ensuring prosperity, inclusivity, and sustainability.

Key challenges
India’s journey towards energy independence is pivotal, especially considering its current reliance on imports for 90 per cent of its oil and 80 per cent of its industrial coal. The Viksit Bharat vision aims to achieve energy self-sufficiency by 2047, targeting a CO2 emissions peak in the early 2030s and reducing emissions to around 800 million tonnes per year by 2047. This involves expanding renewable energy capacity to over 500 GW by 2030, with aspirations of an 80 per cent green grid by 2040 and 90 per cent by 2047.

The shift to electric vehicles (EVs), along with the increased use of biofuel in the transportation sector, could drastically reduce crude oil imports by over 90 per cent, saving approximately $240 billion by 2047. Moreover, heavy industrial production is set to depend on green hydrogen and electrification, targeting 90 per cent of iron and steel, 90 per cent of cement, and 100 per cent of fertilizers production through these methods by 2047.

Infrastructure development is crucial for achieving Viksit Bharat. The government has earmarked 3.3 per cent of GDP for infrastructure in 2024, focusing on roads, highways, railways, and urban public transport. The ambitious plan includes constructing a national highway grid spanning 200,000 kilometres and operationalizing 23 waterways by 2030.

The Sagarmala initiative aims to enhance port-led development, reducing turnaround times at Indian ports to 0.9 days and increasing port capacity to over 10,000 MTPA by 2047. Additionally, the Bharatmala Pariyojana targets the development of 34,800 km of national highways, with Phase I expected to be completed by 2027-2028.

Agriculture remains a vital sector, employing nearly 46 per cent of the workforce. The government’s initiatives focus on enhancing farmer incomes, reducing farming costs, and providing modern amenities. Programs like the PM Kisan Samman Nidhi and Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana have already benefited millions of farmers with substantial increases in crop insurance and financial assistance.

India’s food demand is projected to grow at an annual rate of 2.44 per cent from 2019-20 to 2047-48, necessitating sustainable agricultural practices and technological innovations. The report predicts significant growth in the demand for pulses, vegetables, fruits, and milk, with total food grain demand expected to reach 402-437 million tonnes by 2047-48.

Drivers of growth
The service sector is expected to be a major driver of economic growth, supported by advancements in IT and digital services. India’s digital economy grew by 15.6 per cent from 2014 to 2019, outpacing overall economic growth. The expansion of platforms like UPI, which has a 40 per cent market share globally, showcases India’s leadership in digital innovation.

Governance reforms are aimed at improving service delivery, transparency, and efficiency. Initiatives like the Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission and the eShram portal exemplify the government’s commitment to digital transformation and inclusivity.

The 2024-25 budget emphasizes commitments towards energy transition, infrastructure development, and social welfare. Key initiatives include (1) Rooftop Solar Projects: Installing solar panels in one million homes, providing up to 300 units of free electricity monthly; (2) EV Infrastructure: Expanding EV production capacities and developing charging stations; (3) Green Energy Initiatives: Funding for offshore wind energy projects and coal gasification to reduce imports of natural gas, methanol, and ammonia; (4) Promoting environmentally friendly solutions such as biodegradable polymers and bio-agricultural products; (5) Blue Economy 2.0: Enhancing climate resilience and sustainable practices along the coastline.

As India embarks on this transformative journey, the vision of Viksit Bharat by 2047 stands as a beacon of hope and ambition. The strategic initiatives outlined in the report highlight a comprehensive approach to development, encompassing energy independence, infrastructure, agriculture, service sector growth, and governance reforms. With unwavering commitment, innovative thinking, and strategic leadership, India is poised to achieve this historic milestone, reshaping its future for generations to come.

It is expected that in the upcoming budget, more such schemes/policies will be introduced to take the economy towards the path of Viksit Bharat. The only hitch could be whether coalition partners will agree to this vision or expect more schemes catering to their vote-banks.

Souryabrata Mohapatra is Associate Fellow and Sanjib Pohit is Professor at NCAER. Views are personal.

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