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The goal of achieving energy independence by 2047 is a pivotal aspect of the Viksit Bharat vision and projections suggest that India is on its way to attain that vision.

Currently, India imports 90% of its oil and 80% of its industrial coal, a dependency that exposes the nation to global market volatility and economic vulnerabilities. The goal of achieving energy independence by 2047 is, therefore, a pivotal aspect of the Viksit Bharat (VB) vision. Projections suggest that India’s CO2 emissions will peak in the early 2030s and subsequently decrease to around 800 million tonnes per year by 2047, marking an 85-90% progress towards net-zero emissions.

To meet the escalating energy demands, India plans to install over 500 GW of non-fossil electricity generation capacity by 2030, with the aim of achieving an 80% green grid by 2040 and 90% by 2047. This transition will include a significant shift towards electric vehicles (EVs), aiming for nearly all new vehicle sales to be electric by 2035. Additionally, heavy industrial production will primarily transition to green hydrogen and electrification, targeting 90% of iron and steel and cement production and 100% of fertilizers by 2047.

India’s commitment to green development has been exemplified by the Clean Energy Mission, which has seen the green energy capacity more than double in the past nine years. This progress has positioned India fourth globally in terms of installed capacity. Solar capacity alone surged from 2.63 GW in 2014 to 71.78 GW by September 2023, highlighting the rapid advancement in renewable energy infrastructure.

The Clean-India aspirations set forth an aggressive deployment of green energy, aiming for 100 GW per year between 2030 and 2050. This strategy is anticipated to significantly reduce air pollution-related premature deaths, with estimates suggesting prevention of over 4 million such deaths between 2023 and 2047.

The transition to green technologies is expected to yield substantial economic benefits. The shift to electric transportation alone could result in net consumer savings of $2.5 trillion (₹19 million crores) by 2047. Moreover, the deployment of green hydrogen and electrification in industrial sectors could reduce industrial coal imports by 95%, further strengthening India’s energy security.

However, this transition will require significant capital investment, estimated at ₹11-15 million crores between 2023 and 2047 compared to the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario. The deployment of renewable energy technologies, including offshore wind, waste-to-energy projects, and distributed green energy systems, will be crucial in achieving these goals.

India’s ambitious targets for 2047 include achieving 90% green grid capacity, transitioning nearly all vehicle sales to electric by 2035, and shifting heavy industrial production towards green hydrogen and electrification. Achieving these targets will also involve significant infrastructure developments, including the installation of over 500 GW of non-fossil electricity generation capacity by 2030.

The VB policy framework is built on five key pillars: mandates for green technology deployment, financial support for emerging technologies, long-term infrastructure planning, scaling up domestic manufacturing, and ensuring a fair transition. The recent budget for 2024-25 has emphasized commitments towards achieving energy transition and a Net Zero status by 2070, introducing several key initiatives such as rooftop solar projects, expansion of EV infrastructure, and support for biogas integration.

The 2024-25 budget highlights substantial investments in renewable energy. Rooftop solar projects aim to equip one million homes with solar panels, potentially saving each household approximately $200 to $240 annually and reducing carbon emissions by about 35 million tonnes annually. The expansion of EV infrastructure is expected to decrease crude oil imports by over 90% (equivalent to $240 billion) by 2047.

India’s roadmap towards 2047 is characterized by ambitious targets and detailed projections:

1. Renewable Energy Capacity:

• By 2030: Over 500 GW of non-fossil electricity generation capacity.
• By 2040: 80% of the energy grid from green sources.
• By 2047: 90% of the energy grid from green sources.

2. Electric Vehicles:

• By 2030: 60% of all new vehicle sales to be electric.
• By 2035: Nearly 100% of all new vehicle sales to be electric.
• By 2047: Electric vehicles to dominate the transport sector, significantly reducing oil imports.

3. Green Hydrogen and Industrial Electrification:

• By 2030: Initiate large-scale production and use of green hydrogen.
• By 2040: 60% of iron and steel production using green hydrogen and electrification.
• By 2047: 90% of iron and steel, 90% of cement, and 100% of fertilizers to be produced using green hydrogen and electrification.

4. Energy Consumption and Savings:

• By 2047: The transition to electric transportation could result in consumer savings of $2.5 trillion (₹19 million crores).
• Significant reduction in industrial coal imports by 95%.

5. Capital Investment:

• Between 2023 and 2047: Estimated additional investment of ₹11-15 million crores for renewable energy infrastructure.

6. Environmental Impact:

• By 2047: CO2 emissions will decrease to around 800 million tonnes per year.
• Prevention of over 4 million premature deaths related to air pollution between 2023 and 2047.

India’s journey towards VB by 2047 is deeply intertwined with its energy landscape. Achieving energy independence, transitioning to green technologies, and fostering sustainable development are not merely aspirational goals but necessary pathways to ensure the nation’s economic resilience and environmental sustainability. The ambitious targets set forth in the VB vision require unwavering commitment, innovative thinking, and strategic leadership. As we move forward, it is imperative to keep these goals in sight, fostering a collaborative effort across all sectors of society to realize the vision of a prosperous, inclusive, and sustainable India.

Souryabrata Mohapatra is Associate Fellow and Sanjib Pohit is Professor at NCAER. Views are personal.

A survey shows that, across all economic statuses, more women than men go in for AYUSH systems.

The much-publicised International Day of Yoga has had a significant impact on raising awareness and promoting the adoption of AYUSH (Ayurveda, Yoga, Naturopathy, Unani, Siddha and Homeopathy) as vital health interventions. Government initiatives, along with efforts from other agencies, have fostered the acceptance of AYUSH systems in India. As it gains momentum, its integration into modern health practices will mark a significant shift towards holistic and traditional health interventions, promoting a more inclusive approach to well-being.

The first comprehensive all-India survey on AYUSH was conducted between July 2022 and June 2023, covering 181,298 households (104,195 in rural areas and 77,103 in urban areas). Its results unveiled fascinating and thought-provoking insights: An impressive 95.1 per cent of respondents reported awareness of AYUSH systems, with slightly higher awareness in urban areas and no significant gender divide. Around 95.1 per cent of men and 95.2 per cent of women stated that they are aware of the system

The survey further revealed that over half of the respondents (53.1 per cent) had used AYUSH treatments within the last 365 days when the survey was conducted. The usage was for treating or preventing diseases and ailments based on the advice of a medical practitioner or instructor. It also encompassed home-based remedies, self-medication and self-treatment.

While general awareness of AYUSH systems showed no gender divide and rising age did not hinder its adoption, it’s intriguing that adoption rates among females were higher at 56.3 per cent compared to only half among males. Delving further, it was observed that adoption rates among females across all age groups surpassed those among males. The gender gap was more pronounced in younger age groups (peaking in the 26-35 years age group) and gradually tapered in higher age groups.

Remarkably, the data also showed that across all economic statuses, females exhibited higher adoption of AYUSH systems compared to males. Among males, adoption rates ranged from 43.5 per cent in the lowest quintile (poorest) to 59.3 per cent in the highest quintile (richest), while for females, the corresponding range was 49 per cent to 64.4 per cent.

The pattern didn’t end there. A look at the adoption or usage rate across educational levels revealed that women had a higher rate. Even illiterate females showed a much higher adoption or usage rate than males who were graduates and above.

The reasons

So, are females more receptive to adopting or using AYUSH systems? Data has proven so, but there are no straightforward reasons that this pattern could be attributed to. Even on closer examination of the survey data, we found that the survey attempted to elicit information on the ‘reasons for not using AYUSH systems’ from the respondents. But, after analysing the data, it pointed to no perceptibly strong factors to arrive at a definite conclusion. However, data showed that males exhibited more faith in allopathy across all age groups as compared to females. Could we infer an inverse relationship between lower faith in allopathy and higher adoption and usage of AYUSH systems among females? Suffice it to say that it would not be a safer bet to rely solely on this factor; it is at best one of the several contributing factors.

Contrary to common perception, there is a notable trend of greater usage and acceptance of AYUSH systems among females compared to males. This pattern holds true across all age groups, educational levels, and income brackets. A deeper look at the present survey did not quite reveal any distinct features that would lead us to conclusively pinpoint any specific reasons or factors.  This pattern and phenomenon presents a new perspective that warrants further investigation, and hence the need for adequate and relevant information.

Palash Baruah is Associate Fellow at the National Council of Applied Economic Research; D L Wankhar is a retd government officer. Views are personal.

India’s growing economy is lifting families out of poverty but often onto a precarious perch. A single disaster can push them right back. Policy, obsessed with counting the poor, ignores the question of helping ‘newly poor’

Two decades ago, controversies around the measurement of in National Sample Surveys set off what became known as the Great Indian Poverty Debate. We seem to have come full circle with new controversies about poverty measurement, leading to the Great Indian Poverty Debate 2. But is counting the exact number of individuals whose incomes fall below the poverty line, located around ₹1,900, as important as understanding the nature of poverty decline and its implications for social policy?

Some estimates based on Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) place poverty under 5%. Newly collected Wave 3 of India Human Development Survey (IHDS) places it at about 8.5%. HCES probably underestimates poverty due to a change in methodology, while IHDS probably overestimates poverty due to its reliance on an older sampling frame that omits newly growing peri-urban areas. However, both suggest that poverty is declining. The multidimensional poverty index released by Niti Aayog also documents improvements in the conditions under which households live.

But due to an obsession with estimating the exact number of individuals in poverty, implications of this change for the provision of social safety nets are ignored.

India’s approach to social protection was developed when most of its population was impoverished. Unequal access to productive resources such as infra, land and education led to endemic poverty among some sections of the society (such as SCs and STs) and some areas (such as poorest districts like Dahod, Gadchiroli, and Dhubri). Hence, the primary focus was on designating the poorest sections of society as BPL and providing them various benefits, including food grains.

As the economy grows, it presents both opportunities and challenges. rural residents find work as skilled masons, and urban slum-dwellers become drivers for delivery services. While this is a step out of abject poverty, it also places them on a precarious perch where a single accident, natural disaster, or epidemic could push them back into poverty.

IHDS, organised by National Council of Applied Economic Research and University of Maryland, followed more than 40,000 households between 2004 and 2024. Its results suggest that poverty decline is closely coupled with increasing vulnerability. Between 2004-05 and 2011-12, of the total 22.4% who were poor, 8.5% were newly poor.

That is, if BPL cards were given based on poverty in 2004-05, they would miss out on nearly 40% of the individuals who were poor in 2012. This proportion grew between 2011-12 and 2022-24, although overall poverty declined. Of the 8.5% poor in 2022-24, 5.3% are newly poor, reflecting a decline in chronic poverty and growth in transient poverty.

Whereas accidents of birth largely shaped the fortunes of Indian citizens in the 20^th century, the 21st century has seen a rising importance of accidents of life. The challenge is that we cannot easily predict this descent into disaster. While the death of a wage earner brings debt and misery to one widow, the other may be able to get a loan from a bank to set up a small shed for raising pigs and support herself, yet another may have a son who is grown up and can help his mother.

Our public discourse must acknowledge and celebrate movement out of poverty, but it must also recognise the precarity of this achievement and work towards building safety nets that protect against unforeseen disasters. This involves developing social policies that provide risk insurance and strengthening institutions that can be mobilised to deliver assistance when needed.

Illness and death pose tremendous risks for vulnerable households. Hence, strengthening public health services and building an efficient health insurance programme are critical. Present programmes such as Ayushman Bharat cover only hospital expenditures, which can easily lead to escalating public expenditures as individuals who can be treated in outpatient clinics resort to hospitalisation because they lack the funds to pay OPD fees.

Dealing with emergencies also requires building sustainable institutions. During the pandemic, PDS ensured that grains could be distributed despite price rises and transportation challenges. This helped avert hunger and starvation while highlighting the exclusion of migrants who did not have proof of residence, giving impetus to setting up the One Nation, One Ration Card programme. Similarly, immediate cash needs during flooding or other disasters can be met through an infusion of funds if we have access to registries that link people’s current residential locations with their bank accounts.

We must move past the futile debate about estimating the exact number of poor individuals and accept that poverty is declining, requiring re-envisioning of our social protection programmes to ensure we don’t fail those who need help the most. 

The writer is Professor at National Council of Applied Economic Research & University of Maryland. Views are personal.