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First Results: NCAER’s Delhi NCR Coronavirus Telephone Survey

NCAER hosted a webinar by Sonalde Desai, Santanu Pramanik, and Dinesh Tiwari from its National Data Innovation Centre to share the results of its rapid response representative telephone survey in the Delhi NCR. The survey launched on April 3, 2020, 10 days after the lockout started was completed on April 6, 2020. The discussion attended by over 150 participants was moderated by Shekhar Shah.

Three weeks into the world’s biggest lockdown, the Coronavirus pandemic continues to pose moral, ethical and practical dilemmas for India. Epidemiologists rightly want to continue the lockdown to push out the peak and flatten the curve, buying time to prepare for peak hospitilisations with more personnel, beds and ventilators. Others are deeply concerned about the lives and livelihoods that will be lost from starvation, poverty, and other diseases, and from the destruction of farms, enterprises, and supply chains.

Policymakers are grappling with questions about how social distancing can be combined with safety nets for the vulnerable. How can the blow to informal workers and industry be softened? How do people perceive the dangers of the pandemic, and how are they adapting to the physical, social and emotional challenges of the lockdown?

To begin to answer some of these question, the NCAER National Data Innovation Centre launched its Delhi NCR Coronavirus Telephone Survey (DCVTS) to understand:

  • people’s knowledge of the Coronavirus
  • people’s attitudes and perceptions towards the risk of a Coronavirus infection
  • preventive and control measures, especially social distancing, and the feasibility of adhering to them
  • the impact of the Coronavirus pandemic on people’s livelihoods, income, social life, and access to essential items
  • and their support for extending the lockdown.

Round 1 of the DCVTS, completed in four days, interviewed a representative random sample of 1,750 adults in Delhi NCR comprising 31 districts in Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Haryana. The DCVTS will be repeated roughly every three weeks with the questions chosen to reflect key issues that seem important for this fast moving pandemic.

The DMAS study provides detailed background data on the DCVTS Round 1 households making possible further in-depth study of these households

NCAER DCVTS Round 1 results and the Press Release is available on this webpage.

Dr Santanu Pramanik from NCAER spoke with Shereen Bhan of the CNBC TV18 to discuss the results of this survey. The recording of this television interview can be viewed here.

India & the Coronavirus: Modelling the Trajectory of Covid-19

The Coronavirus pandemic presents India, and the rest of the world, with difficult, painful public policy choices. The Economist magazine calls it a “A grim calculus. Covid-19 presents stark choices between life, death, and the economy.” These choices will become harder as India approaches the end of his historical, 21-day national lockdown, unprecedented in the history of mankind for its scale and urgency.

On Friday, April 10, NCAER hosted Professor Bhramar Mukherjee from the University of Michigan and members of the COV-IND-19 Study Group at its first NCAER Coronavirus Briefings Webinar to examine the threat to India posed by the Coronavirus and COVID-19, the disease it causes. The Group presented their modelling work and their findings that seek to answer questions of grave concern to India during and post the national lockout.

The COV-IND-19 Study Group at the Michigan University, an interdisciplinary group of scholars and data scientists, are using data and modelling to generate timely reports and recommendations about Covid-19 in India. Using daily Indian data on cumulative Covid-19 cases, recoveries and deaths, the Group is using an extended version of the SIR— susceptible, infected, and removed (recoveries & deaths) — model.  Their model incorporates time-varying transmission rates that help predict the impact of the lockdown compared to other possible interventions on the number of cases over time. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo model implementation provides predicted proportions of cases over time with credible intervals.  The Group has issued two briefings: pre-lockdown and post lockdown.  The Group has put out an interactive app at covind19.org which shows short and long-term projections updated daily.

Professor Mukherjee was joined by members of the Study Group, Debashree Ray  from the Departments of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins University, and Rupam Bhattacharyya, Maxwell Salvatore, and Lili Wang, all at the University of Michigan.

The webinar touched upon questions also addressed by the Group in their post lockdown brief:

  • With the 21-day lockdown period in place, how many cases can we expect in India? How many fatalities can we expect in the next few weeks?
  • Italy has been under lockdown since March 9, but as of April 4 had not seen an appreciable reduction in mortality or the number of cases. When can we expect to see a reduction in India?
  • What will success under a lockdown look like?
  • What can we expect after the lockdown is lifted — will the number of cases go back up? Number of deaths?
  • Will the 21-day lockdown be long enough? Would a longer lockdown be more effective?
  • How vulnerable are India’s healthcare/frontline workers with medical resources stretched?
  • What should the Central and State governments be doing during and after the lockdown?
  • What can people do during and after the lockdown?
  • Why are there so many models and so many projections around, and why do they vary so much? How much should we rely on these projections?

For measuring this pandemic’s pulse, the Group talked about the role of data and data transparency, itself dependent on massive Coronavirus testing to generate the data and then on the regular, rapid release of accurate, credible data on susceptible, exposed, infected and removed (recoveries and death) cases.  Over 170 participants from India and overseas joined the NCAER webinar. After the discussion, Mukherjee and colleagues answered questions from the participants.

Speakers:

Bhramar Mukherjee is the John D. Kalbfleisch Collegiate Professor and Chair, Department of Biostatistics, Professor, Department of Epidemiology, and Research Professor and Core Faculty Member, Michigan Institute of Data Science, all at the University of Michigan. Mukherjee is a fellow of the American Statistical Association and the American Association for the Advancement of Science.  She is the recipient of several awards, including the Gertrude Cox Award from the Washington Statistical Society in 2016 and the 2020 L. Adrienne Cupples Award from the Boston University School of Public Health.

Debashree Ray is an Assistant Professor of Epidemiology and Biostatistics in the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

Rupam Bhattacharyya and Lili Wang are PhD candidates in Biostatistics at the University of Michigan.

Max Salvatore is a research area specialist in the Department of Biostatistics at the University of Michigan.

Release of the first edition of NCAER Land Record Services Index (N-LRSI)

NCAER, released its new Land Records and Services Index (N-LRSI 2020), on Thursday, 27th February, 2020. The N-LRSI assesses the extent of digitisation of land records and the quality of these land records in the States and UTs of India. Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, and Tamil Nadu emerged as the top States in the N-LRSI 2020.

The N-LRSI is an integral part of the NCAER Land Policy Initiative (NLPI) launched in 2019 with the aim of filling the gaps in economic research, policy analysis, and systematic data on land.  Access to land is a critical factor for economic growth and poverty reduction.  For government, industry, and citizens to be able to use this asset effectively and to minimise disputes, it is important to have access to reliable land and property records.  Over the years, different states have made significant progress in making their land records digitally available to citizens.  The N-LRSI aims to understand the extent of this progress and existing gaps and to identify measures to improve land records in each state.

The 2020 N-LRSI is based on data collected over 2019-20 on two aspects of the supply of land records—the extent of digitisation of land records and the quality of these land records.  The first component, which aims to assess whether a state has made all its land records digitally available to citizens, looks at three dimensions—the text of the land records (also called the record of rights), the official map associated with a land record (also called cadastral maps), and the property registration process.

The second component of the Index aims to assess if the land records are comprehensive and reliable–are ownership details updated as soon as a sale occurs, the extent of joint ownership, type of land use, land area on the record and on the map, and are encumbrances being recorded (other claims on the property such as mortgages and court cases). All these elements are closely connected to land disputes and to the ease with which transactions in land can be completed and legally recorded and then conveniently accessed.

While delivering his keynote remarks at the launch of N-LRSI 2020, Mr Ramesh Abhishek, former Secretary, Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade, lauded NCAER’s perceptive and insightful study on land record management in India. He said, “The N-LRSI is an excellent Reality Check on the status of land records and their accessibility in various states. This brings out the strengths and area of improvement for the government agencies and makes very practical recommendations on way forward. Central and State Governments should pay utmost attention to the findings of the Index and tailor their policies and programme accordingly.”

In his introductory remarks, Dr Shekhar Shah, Director General, NCAER, noted that “The N-LRSI is timely, pioneering work and is already attracting policymaker attention at the Central and State levels. The Index can serve at least three purposes.  First, it will help formulate State action plans to attain the goal of secure, assured land records that mirror ground realities and are generated by efficient titling services.  Second, the N-LRSI’s comparative assessment of States and UTs will make it possible for the States to learn from each other, with the best performing States showing how the supply of good, reliable, accessible digital land records has been improved.  Third, the Central Government can use the N-LRSI to reward and recognise States and UTs that perform better on the Index so that the others are encouraged to improve their standing.”

While introducing N-LRSI 2020, the project co-leader Mr Deepak Sanan, former Additional Chief Secretary (Revenue), Government of Himachal Pradesh and now NCAER Senior Advisor, observed that “the N-LRSI 2020 could not have come at a more opportune moment. The Indian economy has slowed down dramatically over 2018 and 2019. Lack of improvements in the ability to acquire and hold land, and use and transact in land and property, are major impediments inhibiting both investment and poverty reduction. India’s spectacular improvement on the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business index stands in marked contrast to the dismal showing with regard to the component of the Index that relates to land, the ease of registering property.”

NCAER is part of the Property Rights Research Consortium, a multi-institution research consortium supported by generous grants from the Omidyar Network India. The Property Rights Research Consortium is focusing on building research and evidence on the rights to land, housing and other assets.  The National Institution for Public Finance and Policy, the Centre for Policy Research’s Land Rights Initiative, and Brookings India are currently the other members of this network.

Speaking on why indices and research such as the N-LRSI is important, Ms Shilpa Kumar, Investment Partner, Omidyar Network India, said, “Our goal is to help leading policy organizations bring sharper focus on property and land rights, an area that is relatively under researched but very vital for individual and societal wellbeing.  Given that land and housing account for nearly 77 per cent of household assets in India, we hope that research like this can better inform more effective policy making.”

Talking about the next steps for the N-LRSI, project co-leader Professor Devendra B Gupta said, “The first round construction of the N-LRSI primarily used supply-side data during 2019-20, including proxies for measuring access for citizens, for assessing the extent of digitisation and gauging the quality of land-records services offered.  For the second round using data for 2020-21, a demand-side survey of citizens will be added to gauge the level of public awareness and satisfaction in using digital land records and associated services.”

Besides its launch today at NCAER, the N-LRSI will be featured at the upcoming 4th India Land and Development Conference 2020 (ILDC 2020) in New Delhi during March 2-4, 2020 in which the top performing states will be recognised and their performance will be discussed as a learning tool.

A previous NCAER study that focussed on assessing the extent of computerization of land records and the registration process as well as gauging the extent to which land records reflected the situation on the ground in three Indian States is available here.  

N-LRSI 2020 Findings

Scoring 60-75 points, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, and Tamil Nadu are the five best-performing States on the N-LRSI. West Bengal, Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh are the six States in the 50-60 point category.

Figure 1 shows the different components of the N-LRSI and their weights and method of evaluation.

Figure 1: Structure of the N-LRSI


Figure 2: N-LRSI 2020 State Rankings

 

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