The IHDS Forum is a monthly update of socio-economic developments in India by the IHDS research community, based on the India Human Development Survey, jointly conducted by NCAER and the University of Maryland. While two earlier rounds of the survey were completed in 2004-05 and 2011-12, respectively. Fieldwork for the third round was undertaken in 2022-24 and the data is currently being cleaned and processed.
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Most developed and emerging economies regularly estimate their logistics costs and employ performance indicators to track the efficiency of logistics operations. For India, too, systematic measurement of logistics costs is imperative to benchmark its performance vis-à-vis competing economies, and to identify areas for improvement. The vision of Viksit Bharat—a developed India by 2047—further reinforces the urgency of building a world-class logistics ecosystem that reduces costs, enhances competitiveness, and strengthens supply chain for both internal and EXIM trade.
India’s agricultural future hinges on aligning water and crop calendars to combat the dual threats of drought stress and waterlogging
Summary
Agriculture still anchors India’s rural economy, sustaining nearly half the population. Yet behind the pastoral images of swaying paddy or mustard fields lies a problem that is less visible but no less urgent: The lack of synchrony between the water calendar — rainfall, reservoir releases, irrigation schedules — and the crop calendar, which sets out the optimal windows for planting, growth and harvest.
When these two calendars align, water reaches plants precisely when it is most needed: during germination, flowering and grain filling. The outcome is healthier crops, better yields and more efficient water use. But across much of India this harmony remains elusive, with consequences that ripple across farming households, markets and the environment.
Dual threat of water deficiency and waterlogging
Mistimed irrigation cuts both ways. Water shortage during critical growth phases causes crop stress, lowering yields and harvest quality. This is especially damaging for marginal and smallholder farmers, who operate on narrow margins. Reduced output shrinks their marketable surplus and often forces them into debt cycles to cover inputs or repay earlier loans. This vicious circle worsens rural poverty and agrarian distress.
Conversely, excess water leads to waterlogging, submerging crops and suffocating roots by limiting oxygen availability. Waterlogged fields risk crop failure, and repeated episodes degrade soil health by increasing salinity, reducing aeration, and harming soil structure. These effects threaten long-term productivity, particularly in flood-prone and deltaic regions.
Rain-fed regions at the sharp end. The challenge intensifies in rainfed and semi-arid regions where farming depends primarily on the monsoon. Yet India’s monsoon has become increasingly unpredictable, with erratic onset, uneven spatial distribution, and frequent dry spells, a trend attributed to climate variability.
Such variability disrupts both water and crop calendars. Farmers here face hard choices: Delay sowing while waiting for sufficient rain, truncating the growing season and risking lower yields; or extract groundwater to ensure timely planting, increasing input costs and hastening aquifer depletion.
This groundwater dependence sets off a downward spiral, with shrinking water tables raising pumping costs and threatening long-term sustainability. Parts of Rajasthan, Haryana and Andhra Pradesh exemplify this precarious situation.
Risks of uncoordinated rainfall patterns, rigid crop calendars
The devastation caused by excessive rainfall this year illustrates how badly India needs to reconcile its water and crop calendars. Unseasonal downpours drowned fields from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar to Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. Paddy ready for harvest was flattened, pulses and oilseeds split open before ripening and onions and tomatoes rotted in waterlogged soils.
In August and September 2025, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan recorded rainfall up to twice the seasonal norm. Soybean and maize, in their grain-filling stage, were submerged, precisely when too much water does the greatest harm. In eastern Uttar Pradesh, torrential rains ruined freshly transplanted paddy and derailed sowing schedules for pulses. In Maharashtra’s Marathwada, a long dry spell ended with cloudbursts that caused both crop loss and severe soil erosion.
Farmers had little room to manoeuvre. Sowing and harvesting calendars are rigid and without adaptive water management or early-warning systems, they were left exposed to the elements.
Without adaptive synchronisation mechanisms such as dynamic reservoir release planning, early-warning advisories and promotion of climate-resilient cropping choices, the mismatch between water and crop calendars will only deepen under climate variability.
The toll of poorly timed irrigation is not just ecological but economic. Delayed watering during sensitive phases slashes yields. Data from the Indian Council of Agricultural Research in 2023 showed rice yields in coastal Odisha fell by up to 20 per cent when irrigation was late during the grain-filling stage.
When surface water is unavailable, farmers turn to costly alternatives: Diesel pumps for groundwater or buying tanker water, which has further ramifications. Input costs soar, while profits shrink.
Erratic water supply also disrupts cropping patterns, forcing farmers to alter their cropping decisions or delay sowing, which in turn disrupts agricultural cycles and depresses overall output. Improper irrigation can cause waterlogging, resulting in long-term soil health damage that undermines future productivity and financial returns.
On a broader scale, these inefficiencies pose serious risks to food security by threatening stable food production amid a growing population and the increasing pressures of climate change.
Lessons from Kerala, Punjab and Krishna Delta
Some states are showing what can be achieved when water and crop calendars are better aligned.
Kerala has recognised challenges such as delays in canal water releases and rainfall gaps that previously caused sowing postponements and reduced cultivation areas for rice varieties.
Farmers are gradually shifting towards more efficient water use, exploring crops like tapioca and banana, which complement water availability patterns. The Kerala Water Authority’s initiative to digitise water release schedules and enhance coordination with agricultural agencies marks a significant and promising step toward better synchronization, ultimately supporting higher yields, income stability and more resilient farming practices.
Punjab’s canal irrigation system, too, demonstrates how scheduled water releases, aligned with wheat and paddy cycles, can support consistently high yields. Real-time monitoring and active farmer engagement have reinforced this success. This integrated approach has helped maintain consistently high yields and strong farm profitability.
Yet Punjab also warns of the dangers of over-reliance: Groundwater depletion and over-irrigation loom as major threats despite careful water scheduling.
The Krishna Delta, irrigated by reservoirs such as Nagarjuna Sagar, has taken a dynamic approach, matching water releases with inflows and crop demand. This flexible allocation has improved efficiency and boosted farmer incomes, an approach worth replicating more widely.
Together, these examples highlight how improved synchronisation between water availability and crop needs can strengthen agricultural productivity and resilience across diverse regions.
Multi-pronged approach for better synchronisation
To bridge the gap between water availability and crop needs, India must adopt comprehensive strategies. Effective water management in agriculture relies heavily on data-driven approaches, such as real-time hydrological monitoring, accurate weather forecasting and modelling of crop water demand, which together enable adaptive irrigation scheduling to minimise wastage and maximise yields.
Equally important is decentralised, farmer-centric planning that empowers local water user associations and farmers to actively participate in water scheduling, ensuring delivery aligns with actual field requirements. Modernising infrastructure by repairing and automating canal networks, installing flow control devices, and expanding the use of micro-irrigation methods like drip and sprinkler systems further enhances precision and timeliness in water delivery.
Investments in effective drainage systems are also essential to prevent waterlogging and maintain soil health, particularly in flood-prone areas. Encouraging crop diversification by promoting varieties suited to local water availability and climate such as millets, pulses, and drought-resistant crops helps reduce pressure on water resources while building resilience. Integrating climate change projections into irrigation and crop calendar planning ensures that these systems remain adaptive to increasing weather variability.
Finally, strong policy coordination and collaboration among agricultural extension services, water authorities, and local governance bodies are critical for developing integrated frameworks that can dynamically respond to evolving environmental and agricultural conditions.
Laxmi Joshi is fellow at National Council of Applied Economic Research and Saurabh Bandyopadhyay is senior fellow at National Council of Applied Economic Research, Views expressed are the author’s own and don’t necessarily reflect those of Down To Earth.
Training, targeted support can make a difference.
India’s livestock sector is experiencing a transformation, and women are at its core. The Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship (MSDE) and NCAER (2025) study titled, ‘National Skill Gap Study for High Growth Sectors’, assessed the skill shortages and gaps in the sector, ‘raising cattle and buffaloes’.
The MSDE-NCAER study used the Periodic Labour Force Survey (2022-23) data to show that the employment in the livestock sector increased at a compound annual growth rate of 20.8 per cent between 2017-18 and 2022-23. This sector employed 5 per cent of the country’s workforce. And 82 per cent of the workers engaged in ‘raising cattle and buffaloes’ were women.
Despite their dominance in this sector, more than 80 per cent of the female workers were ‘animal workers’ and were employed either as self-employed workers (79 per cent) or unpaid family workers (20.7 per cent). Only 0.13 per cent of the women workers were Business Services and Administration Managers and 0.01 per cent of the female workers were Managing Directors and Chief Executives.
Low-paid labour
Essentially, women are mostly engaged in low-paid, labour-intensive jobs such as feeding, milking, and cleaning. The MSDE-NCAER study also found minimal female representation in skilled or managerial roles. Majority of the female workers in this sector were low-skilled (51 per cent) characterised by illiteracy or literacy below primary education.
As per MSDE-NCAER (2025) computations from the PLFS, 79.2 per cent of female workers in this sector were concentrated in eight States in 2022–23: Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, West Bengal and Maharashtra. Uttar Pradesh alone accounted for nearly a third of female workers in raising cattle and buffaloes. However, women’s participation and the nature of their roles vary significantly across States. Women in Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Haryana are heavily involved in cattle care but are seldom part of cooperatives. Karnataka and West Bengal witness women’s participation mostly in household-based dairy activities with limited commercial engagement.
Essentially, the problem in this sector is two-fold. First, female workers in the sector are stuck in a low-equilibrium trap. Milk production is also characterised by low productivity. Second, the MSDE-NCAER (2025) study shows that there are skill shortages in formal job roles like veterinary technician/assistant, mechanic-refrigeration and air conditioning, dairy technologists, and managers of dairy farms.
For the first problem, the Gujarat model shows a way out, where women run dairies supported by financial assistance and leadership training have elevated their incomes and roles within the value chain (NDDB Annual Reports). Women-led cooperatives and self-help groups (SHGs) offer promising models that can be replicated across States. However, several structural barriers remain. Limited access to land, financial credit, and market linkages prevent women from scaling up dairy operations. The following measures can address the dual nature of the skilling problems:
Recognition of prior learning, re-skilling and upskilling of women milker/animal workers/dairy farmers: Literacy programmes can be combined with vocational skilling programmes like Jan Shikshan Sansthan (JSS) programmes in specific blocks;
Mobile training units — delivering on-the-ground technical and business skills in rural areas;
Women-only training centres — equipping women with practical knowledge in AI techniques, fodder conservation, and dairy technology;
Impart knowledge of animal husbandry
Financial inclusion schemes — providing microcredit, subsidies, and insurance for women entrepreneurs (NABARD 2018).
Gender-sensitive dairy policies — ensuring equal cooperative membership, land rights, and leadership representation (FAO 2009).
Provide entrepreneurship skills for workers likely to be engaged in self employment
Scholarships for women in dairy science: Incentivising higher education for women in veterinary and dairy-related disciplines (U-DISE+ 2022-23).
Scholarships for women in dairy management The future of India’s dairy sector depends on how well we empower women — through education, training, and targeted support.
Bandyopadhyay is a Senior Fellow, Sahu is a Fellow, and Bhandari is a Professor, at NCAER. Views are personal
From IT corridors to gig platforms, urban job markets remain stratified by caste, religion and gender. It’s time to make inclusion a core goal of labour policy.
In India’s largest cities, a Muslim woman with a university degree is still more likely to be shut out of a white-collar job than her equally qualified peers from other faiths, men or women. This is not what B.R. Ambedkar envisioned when he called cities “emancipatory zones” where caste hierarchies would dissolve. In fact, labour force data from six major cities tell a different story: segregation in employment by caste and religion remains as entrenched as ever, and in some ways sharper than the divide between men and women.
This is not only a question of social justice; it is a structural brake on productivity – one that urban labour policy must release to realise the full potential of India’s cities.
When Identity Outweighs Gender
Globally, gender is often the most significant dividing line in the workplace. In Paris or Toronto, women are more likely to be clustered in certain jobs than any ethnic or religious group. In Mumbai or Chennai, it is your last name, community or faith that decides which doors open.
Labour force data from Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Hyderabad, Chennai, and Bengaluru reveal strikingly high segregation scores for several marginalised groups. On the Gini index – where zero means perfect integration and one means complete separation – the score is 0.51 for Dalits and 0.49 for Muslims, compared with just 0.20 for gender segregation overall.
The disadvantage is sharpest at the intersections, where gender overlaps with caste, religion, or minority status. Women from marginalised communities – for example, Dalit and Muslim women – face both, a narrower range of jobs and systematic exclusion from higher-status roles. They are also less likely to be in the workforce at all, creating a “double bind” of low participation and high segregation. Even within these communities, smaller sub-groups are further channelled into different kinds of jobs, adding yet another layer to the pattern of exclusion.
Often seen as more integrated, Christians, Sikhs, and smaller minority groups also record higher segregation levels – reminding us that workplace exclusion is not confined to the largest marginalised communities.
The Machinery of Exclusion
Why do these gaps persist in cities that are growing richer and more diverse? The answer lies in the way urban labour markets are structured. For many marginalised groups, it is informal and precarious work that dominates, offering little scope for upward mobility.
Hiring often depends on personal networks, neighbourhood ties or alumni groups, favouring those already connected to advantaged circles. This “social capital” acts as an invisible gate, shutting others out. Discrimination has also evolved: credential inflation, language preferences, and notions of “cultural fit” serve as polite filters, achieving the same result as overt bias.
Migration patterns reinforce the divide. Newcomers without urban networks or sector-specific skills are often funnelled into insecure work, locking them into low-mobility tracks. When these structures meet gender bias, the disadvantages multiply.
Ultimately, the exclusion is as much about information as opportunity. It is the difference between hearing about a bank’s front-desk opening through a well-placed contact and never knowing the vacancy existed at all.
The New Economy isn’t a Level Field
India’s technology and service sectors have changed the face of urban employment, opening doors for some from historically excluded groups, particularly English-speaking, first-generation graduates. For a subset of Dalit and Muslim youth, these roles represent opportunities their parents never had.
But entry does not guarantee mobility. Many such jobs, especially in the gig economy, replicate the insecurity of the informal sector: no benefits, no career ladder, and few protections. Without targeted support for advancement and stability, these new sectors risk becoming waiting rooms rather than springboards, simply repackaging an old pattern of limited opportunity.
Old barriers are adapting to new sectors – making policy intervention urgent.
Turning Evidence into Change
Segregation persists even after accounting for education, occupation, and city effects, making it clear that growth alone will not dissolve the exclusion problem. The solution lies in dismantling the structures that keep it in place. Reducing informality, expanding social protections and enforcing labour standards would create more secure jobs for those now clustered in precarious work.
Training programmes should connect directly to vacancies, backed by mentorship, internships, and soft-skill support for first-generation professionals. Public narratives that spotlight diverse success stories can help shift perceptions, while disaggregated city-level data can reveal where barriers are falling and where they are not.
Segregation by caste, religion, and gender is not only a matter of fairness; it constrains economic potential. When talent is shut out of higher-productivity work, the entire economy operates below capacity. The true measure of India’s urban success will not be the height of its skylines, but the breadth of its opportunities – and how far they reach.
Jyoti Thakur is an Associate Fellow at the National Council of Applied Economic Research, Delhi (NCAER). Karthick V is an Assistant Professor at the Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangaluru (ISEC).
The discussion in this article is based on the authors’ working paper on the subject, accessible at NCAER website. Views are personal.