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The US wants to be the permanent global hegemon. BRICS+ must boost regional trade and build alternative financial infrastructure.

The Illusory Truth Effect — a psychological phenomenon where repeated exposure to falsehoods makes them seem true—has become a cornerstone of modern political propaganda. A 2023 study in Public Opinion Quarterly found that by the end of his first term, President Trump had made an estimated 30,573 false claims. The study showed how the repetition of these claims powerfully shaped public misperceptions—regardless of their factual basis.

Emboldened by its political traction, he has leaned even more heavily on this misinformed narrative in his second term.

US, a beneficiary of globalisation

In reality, the global trading system — far from exploiting the US —has been largely shaped by it to serve its own strategic and economic interests. For decades, the US has been a primary beneficiary of globalisation, enjoying access to cheaper goods, global expansion of its multinationals, dominance in high-value services, and outsized profits in finance and tech.

US GDP per capita has consistently outpaced global averages; since 1991, the gap has widened by 70 per cent, from $31,866 to $54,296. While critics like JD Vance argue that globalization has made US firms complacent by enabling them to outsource instead of innovate, evidence suggests otherwise.

In 2024, US firms again led the world in patent grants in the US — 157,955 — far ahead of China, Japan, Germany, and South Korea. The tech sector alone generates nearly $2 trillion in GDP and employs 9.3 million Americans. In frontier fields like AI and quantum computing, the US remains at the cutting edge.

Logic of US deficits

Trade deficits, often painted as a sign of decline, actually reflect the US’s singular macroeconomic position. America funds these deficits through capital inflows, enabled by the global demand for the dollar. As the world’s most preferred reserve currency, the dollar draws investment from corporations, banks, sovereign wealth funds, and central banks across the world into US assets — bonds, stocks, real estate, and start-ups.

This “exorbitant privilege” allows the US to borrow in its own currency, while others must earn dollars to pay for imports. Goods flow in due to domestic demand, but so does capital —offsetting the trade deficit.

When channelled productively, these inflows have long supported strong economic growth, as noted by the Center for Global Development. These deficits are not inherently harmful; their impact depends on how the capital is used.

Moreover, the outcome of current US trade policies may not reduce fiscal or trade imbalances. Much will depend on how they influence investor confidence and growth expectations.

US policy failure

The real driver of economic discontent in the US isn’t globalization — it’s domestic policy failure. The global trading order has worked well for the US as a whole, but its gains have been unevenly shared. This failure of redistribution, not trade, fostered the victim narrative and created fertile ground for disinformation.

Beneath the economic rhetoric lies a deeper geopolitical anxiety: the erosion of American hegemony, especially by a rising China. China is rapidly closing the gap with the US across sectors, triggering tensions typical of power transitions. Vance’s remarks at the American Dynamism Summit laid bare this concern: “The idea of globalization was that rich countries would move up the value chain… But as [poor countries] got better at the low end, they also started catching up on the high end.”

The US, assuming permanent dominance, is now grappling with the unsettling reality of competition in manufacturing, innovation, and design.

This hegemonic unease isn’t limited to China. Trump’s tariffs in his first term did reduce the bilateral deficit with China but merely diverted trade to other competitors, drawing his attention to new rising economies.

BRICS agenda

Meanwhile, the broader Global South — led by BRICS+ — is voicing dissatisfaction with the dollar-dominated system. It is exploring trade in local currencies, developing alternative payment systems, and even proposing a common BRICS currency. Though still early, these moves signal a shift toward a more multipolar global financial order.

The US’s strategic objective is now clear: to slow or block the rise of rivals before they undermine American dominance and the privileges that come with it. As the rules-based order is increasingly reshaped by unilateralism and strategic competition, emerging economies must respond with collective purpose.

They must move beyond symbolic alliances and transform BRICS+ into a coherent economic bloc, promote regional trade integration, invest in shared technological capabilities, and build independent financial infrastructure. Diversifying value chains and strengthening domestic resilience is essential — not just for growth, but for asserting agency in an evolving global order.

The writer is Senior advisor Trade, Technology and Skills Unit, NCAER. Views expressed are personal.

As the financial system becomes increasingly digitised, it raises a pressing question: are our senior citizens unintentionally being excluded from the financial mainstream?

India’s digital transition in the financial sector has been one of the most striking developments of banking system and for making financial transactions seamless, transparent, and accessible. However, this transformation has not been uniformly experienced across demographics and population. One segment that remains noticeably absent in this digital narrative is India’s elderly population. As the financial system becomes increasingly digitised, it raises a pressing question: are our senior citizens unintentionally being excluded from the financial mainstream?

For most of India’s elderly, the shift to digital finance is not just a change in interface; it is a fundamental disruption of the way they have interacted with money throughout their lives. Unlike younger generations who are digital natives, seniors have historically relied on physical bank branches, handwritten passbooks, face-to-face banking, and cash-based transactions.

The logic and language of digital finance—OTPs, QR codes, biometric authentication, mobile wallets—are often alien to them. A large portion of this population struggles with using smartphones, navigating banking apps, or understanding digital financial products. These difficulties are not merely a result of unfamiliarity, but also of fear — fear of doing something wrong, of irreversible errors, and most importantly, of getting trapped in a financial fraud.

The increasing prevalence of cyber scams and digital frauds targeting the elderly exacerbates this fear. In the absence of clear knowledge or digital financial literacy to verify transactions, seniors often become vulnerable to phishing attacks, impersonation scams, and social engineering techniques.

Rather than being empowered by the digital system, many choose to withdraw from it entirely, preferring to rely on family members or informal intermediaries—a dependence that can compromise both financial autonomy and privacy. Ironically, even as digital systems are designed to improve access, they can inadvertently create new forms of marginalisation when user design assumes a uniform level of digital competence.

This issue becomes more urgent when we consider the growing demographic weight of India’s elderly. According to the Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections for India and States 2011-2036, there were nearly 138 million elderly persons in India in 2021 (67 million males and 71 million females) and is further expected to increase by around 56 million elderly persons in 2031. This is not a small or peripheral demographic. In fact, it represents a population with diverse financial needs: managing pensions, health expenses, savings, insurance, and wealth transfers others for even routine transactions. It is not uncommon to find elderly persons unable to withdraw their pensions due to biometric mismatches or to access welfare entitlements due to failed Aadhaar authentication, particularly in rural areas where digital infrastructure remains patchy.

This phenomenon of exclusion is shaped not only by technological barriers but also by institutional neglect sometimes. While there has been significant emphasis on digital financial literacy in recent years, especially for school students, SHG women, and small entrepreneurs, the elderly remain largely invisible in the design of financial inclusion programmes. Government campaigns and fintech innovations rarely cater to the specific cognitive, physical, and experiential needs of senior citizens. There is a clear gap in policy framework — one that treats digital finance as a tool of progress but forgets to ask: who gets left behind in this progress?

The interfaces of most fintech applications, for instance, are not designed with the elderly in mind. Small text sizes, multiple verification steps within short time spans, lack of voice navigation, and complex user flows all act as deterrents. Furthermore, the overreliance on mobile-only platforms and the gradual withdrawal of physical banking infrastructure— such as closure of branches or reduction of front-desk support —have made it more difficult for seniors to get assisted financial help. While many urban youths welcome a “digital-only” future, for the elderly, this signals a future which is not comfortable for them.

The structural exclusion of seniors from digital finance also intersects with other vulnerabilities. For instance, elderly women, who may have historically had less interaction with formal financial institutions due to patriarchal control over finances, face even greater obstacles. Rural elderly individuals encounter not only a lack of digital skills but also poor network connectivity, inadequate digital infrastructure, and language barriers. This reveals the layered and intersectional nature of the digital divide, where age compounds other existing inequalities of gender, geography and class.

Financial inclusion

Addressing this divide requires more than individual upskilling or sensitisation; it demands a systemic overhaul in the way we conceptualise financial inclusion efforts. Designing accessible fintech tools, simplifying authentication processes, providing alternative verification methods for providers and encourage the development of products specifically tailored for older users. At the community level, local bodies and banks can collaborate with NGOs and senior citizens to conduct regular digital literacy camps and offer assisted services.

Moreover, public sector banks and post offices—institutions that continue to command trust among the elderly—can play a pivotal role. Instead of phasing out their physical operations in the name of digitisation, they can adopt a hybrid approach where both digital and assisted modes coexist. “Bank Mitras” or financial facilitators trained to support the elderly can bridge the gap between systems and users, ensuring that no one is excluded for lack of digital fluency.

As India prepares for a demographic transition towards an ageing society, the idea of financial inclusion must evolve to reflect this reality. The current trajectory of digital finance runs the risk of reinforcing a silent exclusion—one where seniors, despite being financially active and deserving of independent access, are rendered invisible in the architecture of digital systems. This is not simply a matter of access to technology; it is a question of rights, dignity, and economic citizenship.

Inclusion, if it is to be meaningful, must account for the diversity of users it seeks to serve. It must acknowledge that digital finance, while transformative, is not neutral—it privileges certain forms of literacy, certain bodies, and certain speeds of comprehension. Unless deliberate efforts are made to create age-inclusive financial ecosystems, the promise of India’s digital revolution will remain partial and uneven. The goal of an inclusive financial future can truly be achieved if the very people who laid the foundations of the present, our senior citizens, are not left behind and made to digitally participate and harness its benefits.

C.S. Mohapatra is the chair professor, IEPF and Depannita Ghosh is a research analyst, IEPF, National Council of Applied Economic Research. Views are personal.

India’s logistics sector, which is one of the most carbon-intensive in the world, needs to undergo a green transformation.

Viksit Bharat is not just a vision. It is a commitment to having a stronger, self-reliant India by 2047. At its core lies inclusive development, ensuring that growth reaches every citizen, every business, and every region. But can we truly achieve this goal without a logistics sector that is large, efficient and future-ready? From seamless supply chains to last-mile connectivity, an efficient, scalable logistics network is the strength of equitable and sustained progress.

In this growth journey, while infrastructure, efficiency and accessibility are crucial for an inclusive logistics sector, there is one factor that cannot be overlooked — the environment and its prioritisation are absolutely necessary to build a future-ready, resilient logistics network. India’s logistics sector, now one of the most carbon intensive in the world, must undergo a green transformation. As the nation moves towards a net zero carbon emission by 2070, it is imperative to reduce emissions of transportation, warehousing, and supply chain emissions.

Carbon cost of mobility

This sector bears the brunt of intense carbon emissions, mainly from oil combustion. It contributes about 13.5% of the country’s total greenhouse gas emissions, with road transport alone making up over 88% (International Energy Agency (IEA, 2020). Nearly 90% of passenger travel and 70% of freight movement are dependent on roads, with trucks responsible for 38% of CO2 emissions (IEA, 2023).

Domestic aviation accounts for around 4%, while coastal and inland shipping adds to the emissions load but is significantly less than the road freight movement. Government policies envisage a rapid expansion by 2030 —cargo and passenger movement on inland waterways is set to triple, and coastal shipping cargo movement will increase by 1.2 times. This growth not only fuels economic momentum but also maintains its scalability and sustainability goals.

However, this issue is not just restricted to road freight movement. The warehousing sector, which supports freight movement, is another major emitter. Together, these factors create a pressing issue. How we strike the right balance between growth and sustainability is the question. The time to act is now.

Futuristic approaches

Global examples provide a strong foundation for this transition, with countries such as China and the United States successfully shifting freight transport from road to rail. Rail freight significantly reduces emissions compared to road transport. China has invested heavily in expanding its rail network, and the share of the railways is almost 50%. The United States has also embraced this shift, making rail one of the early decarbonised freight options. India should enhance the share of the railways in freight transport to reduce emissions and improve efficiency — rail has been an early adopter of electrification and is a more sustainable, almost zero-carbon emission mode of transport.

Road freight transport cannot be overlooked, and needs a focused structural change to make it cleaner. India has already taken a bold step in this direction with a recent initiative by the Union Minister for Road Transport and Highways — the introduction of overhead electric wires along highways to power electric trucks. The first pilot project on the Delhi-Jaipur corridor could be a breakthrough in reducing emissions from freight movement while ensuring high efficiency and economic viability.

Coastal shipping and inland waterways have immense potential for decarbonisation. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) aims to slash global shipping emissions by 50% by 2050 (compared to 2008 levels), pushing industry to adopt cleaner fuels such as ammonia, hydrogen, LNG, biofuels, methanol, and electricity. India can fast-track its green transition by introducing LNG-powered vessels, solar-assisted electric boats, and even electric or biofuel-run barges. These emission-cutting steps can keep freight movement efficient and sustainable.

Air transport remains one of the hardest sectors to decarbonise due to its heavy reliance on refined fuels, making the transition a costly challenge. However, advancements in sustainable aviation fuels and efficiency improvements in other transport modes could help offset emissions. Warehousing, often outweaving in the carbon equation, is another significant contributor to emissions due to high energy consumption. Transitioning to renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and geothermal power can drastically cut the carbon footprint of warehouses.

Moving ahead

Decarbonising India’s logistics sector is not just about cutting emissions. It is about building a more competitive, resilient and future-ready industry. India’s logistics sector is on the brink of a transformation, and decarbonisation is the key to ensuring sustainable growth. By scaling up rail freight, electrifying road transport, adopting cleaner maritime fuels, and making warehouses more energy-efficient, India can build a high-performing logistics network with a reduced environmental impact. The time to act is now, and with the right policies and investments, India can lead the way in creating a cleaner, greener, and more efficient logistics ecosystem.

The road to a greener future has been paved. It is now time to accelerate.

Sovini Mondal is a Research Associate at the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), New Delhi. Sanjib Pohit is Professor at the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), New Delhi. The views expressed are personal.

Everyone is talking about AI taking away jobs, but few are considering its transformative potential for India’s energy sector. While the conversation focuses on disruption, AI could be the key to revolutionizing energy efficiency, renewable integration, and sustainability. Yet, with this power comes the challenge of managing AI’s own growing energy demands.

India is on a mission to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070, with a target of 50% renewable energy capacity by 2030. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is emerging as a game-changer in this transition, optimizing energy grids, predicting power demand, and improving efficiency. It has the potential to cut global emissions by 5-10%, equivalent to the annual output of the EU.

However, AI’s energy-intensive nature poses challenges—data centres alone could consume 3% of global electricity by 2030. Balancing AI’s benefits with sustainability will be key to ensuring that it accelerates, rather than hinders, India’s green transition.

The Bright Side: AI as a Green Champion

AI’s transformative power in India’s renewable energy sector is hard to ignore. Take energy forecasting, for instance. Solar and wind power depend on nature’s whims—cloudy days and still air can disrupt supply. AI steps in with machine learning models that crunch vast amounts of data, from weather forecasts to past energy trends, to predict output with stunning accuracy. Some companies have been major players in India’s renewable scene, they have boosted forecasting precision by nearly 30% using AI, cutting grid disruptions and reducing reliance on coal backups. Dr. Ramesh Kumar from The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) calls this a “game-changer,”.

Then there’s the smart grid revolution. India’s energy demand is skyrocketing, and AI-powered systems are keeping up by balancing supply and demand in real-time. The government’s Green Energy Corridor project uses AI to integrate renewable sources into the national grid seamlessly, minimizing losses and ensuring power reaches where it’s needed most .

Maintenance is another area where AI can be roped in. In Gujarat’s rugged Kutch region, wind turbines fitted with sensors feed data to AI platforms that spot trouble—say, an odd vibration—before it becomes a costly breakdown. Some companies are saving billions by fixing equipment proactively, extending the life of their assets.

When it comes to storage, AI fine-tunes batteries to store solar energy, as seen in the Delhi Metro’s smart systems. These innovations are pushing India closer to its ambitious carbon reduction goal of 45% by 2030, as pledged under the Paris Agreement.

The Flip Side: AI’s Energy Appetite

Yet, AI’s power comes with a cost. Running those algorithms requires serious computing power, and that means electricity—lots of it. India’s data centre industry, which fuels AI, is expected to consume over 10 GW by 2030—enough to power millions of homes. Dr Anjali Mehta, energy policy expert at NITI Aayog, said that “we need a dual approach: leveraging AI for green energy while ensuring AI itself remains sustainable,”.

This paradox is real. Training a single large AI model can leave as much carbon footprint as five cars over their lifetime. Meanwhile, data centres worldwide are expanding rapidly to support AI, cryptocurrency, and digital services. Without careful planning, this could strain the grid and boost emissions, clashing with the nation’s clean energy mission. The environmental footprint of AI isn’t a distant worry—it’s a challenge India must tackle now.

So, is AI a boon or a burden? It’s both—and that’s where the opportunity lies. India can’t afford to ditch AI; it’s too vital for scaling renewables efficiently.Alongside, the focus also needs to be on making AI itself eco-friendly.

Steps are already underway. The Ministry of Power is nudging data centres to run on solar or wind power, while companies like Infosys and Wipro are pursuing carbon neutrality through AI-driven efficiency.

Beyond renewable-powered data centres, other solutions exist. Innovations in liquid cooling technology, low-power AI chips, and federated learning models can cut AI’s energy appetite. The Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme for battery manufacturing and the Green Hydrogen Mission are also creating an ecosystem where AI’s energy demands can be sustainably.

The European Union’s AI Act, which flags energy-intensive AI as “high risk,” offers a blueprint—India could craft similar regulations to ensure AI serves the planet. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in India suggests regular sustainability audits to keep AI’s footprint in check.

Looking ahead at 2030, AI and renewables could be unstoppable partners—if India plays it smart. The potential is dazzling, but it hinges on investments in clean tech and clear regulations. “AI is not just an enabler but a necessity for India’s clean energy transition,” says Dr. Kumar. “If harnessed responsibly, it will drive us toward a self-reliant and sustainable future”.

AI’s impact on India’s renewable energy sector is a tale of two forces: a brilliant enabler and a quiet consumer. Harnessed with care, it can light up the nation’s green future. Left unchecked, it risks a downfall. India stands at a crossroads, and with the right moves, it can turn this double-edged sword into a shining beacon of progress.

Anushka Bandyopadhyay and Raktimava Bose both are associated with National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER). Views are personal.