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People in the delta need urgent investment in embankments, clean water, women’s healthcare, climate-resilient livelihoods, and targeted climate adaptation funding.

Summary

• The Sundarbans, a vital mangrove delta, faces existential threats from rising sea levels and climate change.
• As men migrate for work, women like Amina endure harsh conditions to sustain their families.
• The region’s cultural heritage and biodiversity are at risk, demanding urgent action to protect this crucial shield against climate disasters.

At dawn, Amina, 32, wades waist-deep through brackish water, her hands trembling slightly as she collects prawn seeds, the last thread of livelihood holding her family afloat. The sting of salt on her skin mirrors the bitterness in her heart. The water she drinks is the same toxic source, the soil she tends is becoming poison, and her husband left years ago for Kolkata in search of work he never found. Each year, the rising tides creep closer, swallowing lands and hopes alike.

Amina’s story is not unique. It is the heartbeat of the Sundarbans. This vast mangrove delta, sheltering 4.5 million people and the world’s largest population of Royal Bengal tigers, is more than geography. It is home, history, and heritage. But relentless sea-level rise measured at 3.9mm annually, more than twice the global average, is erasing this sanctuary. Satellite images reveal some areas sinking by 3 cm yearly. The World Bank warns a 45 cm rise by century’s end could drown three-quarters of the delta, forcing millions into a future unmoored and uncertain.

When men leave, women bear the cost

Migration is a slow heartbreak unfolding daily. Research from Jadavpur University shows 51 per cent of Sundarbans households now have at least one member working away. Men leave for distant cities. Women stay behind, holding the household and community together in a shrinking world.

For women like Amina, survival means long hours wading through saline water to collect prawn seeds, one of the last income sources. The water burns their skin, seeps into wounds, and poisons their bodies. A study by SaciWATERs found that 77 per cent of women in surveyed villages suffer from menstrual and reproductive disorders linked to contaminated water and salt exposure. Doctors witness a troubling rise in urinary tract infections, irregular bleeding, and skin diseases. Yet stigma shrouds these ailments in silence, forcing women to suffer privately and painfully.

This silent suffering ripples outward. A Terre des Hommes and West Bengal Commission for Protection of Child Rights study revealed a 55 per cent rise in child marriages over the last decade in climate-hit villages. Families desperate and fearful for their daughters’ safety amid economic collapse see early marriage as escape. In Gosaba block alone, 76 underage marriages were recorded between 2019 and April 2022.

Education is the next casualty. Floods wash away textbooks and supplies. Schools serve as cyclone shelters, forcing children out of classrooms for months. UNICEF reports that 70 per cent of students miss school during floods, with dropout rates reaching 27 per cent in the hardest-hit regions. Childhoods are lost beneath rising tides, dreams drowned in the quest for mere survival.

The vanishing map

The Sundarbans are literally disappearing. In 25 years, four islands—Bedford (Suparibhanga), Lohachara, Kabasgadi, and South Talpatti—have vanished. Lohachara was the world’s first inhabited island lost to climate change, displacing over 6,000 souls.

Ghoramara Island, once over 10 square kilometres in 1969, has shrunk to just five today. Its population has plummeted from 25,000 in the 1960s to 3,000. Four of its seven villages have been swallowed by the sea; the rest partially submerged. Locals say the island looks like “a half-eaten piece of bread” from the ferry, a haunting metaphor for what climate change devours.

Mousuni Island, 24 square kilometres and the region’s second most vulnerable, faces a grim future. WWF India warns that over 15 per cent of its southern land will vanish by 2030. The sea rises here 8 to 12mm annually, three to four times the global average. Between 1979 and 2011, 3.82 square kilometres were lost to erosion along its western bank.

Even Sagar Island, the delta’s largest with over 200,000 residents, is under siege. The sea has advanced to within 450 metres of the Kapil Muni Temple, which draws millions annually for the Gangasagar Mela. Sagar has lost about 50 square kilometres, one-sixth of its area, forcing climate refugees from nearby islands to resettle there.

The disasters come with terrifying regularity. Cyclone Amphan in 2020 unleashed $15 billion in damage, displacing millions. In 2021, Cyclone Yaas forced 1.5 million evacuations. Most recently, Cyclone Remal’s 111 km/h winds and 12-foot storm surges in May 2024 destroyed nearly 40,000 homes and plunged over 27 million into darkness. Each storm compounds the last, hardening the people’s resolve but exhausting their strength.

Cultural anchors in the tide

Yet amid devastation, the Sundarbans’ people remain fiercely connected to their land through profound traditions. Before entering the mangroves, residents Hindu and Muslim alike pray to Bonbibi, the guardian spirit of the delta. Bonbibi teaches that humans are part of nature, not its masters: take only what you need and respect the fragile balance.

Her shrines pepper the islands, quiet sentinels of hope and humility. After long days spent wading through saltwater, women like Amina kneel in these shrines, praying for their families, their land, and another year of survival. Their prayers carry equal parts desperation and defiance, a haunting reminder of lives lived on the climate crisis frontline.

Bengal’s shield must hold

The Sundarbans are Bengal’s frontline defence against climate disaster. These mangroves absorb storms that would otherwise devastate Kolkata, sequester carbon far more efficiently than rainforests, and nurture irreplaceable biodiversity.

Losing them would strip Bengal of its shield, forcing millions into repeated displacement and erasing a culture that has safeguarded this coast for centuries. It would mean abandoning communities whose only fault is living where the climate crisis hits first. Most tragically, it would extinguish the futures of children especially girls whose dreams are already bartered away for survival.

The people of the Sundarbans need more than sympathy. They need urgent investment in embankments, clean water, women’s healthcare, climate-resilient livelihoods, and targeted climate adaptation funding from national and global sources. Without decisive action, Ghoramara, Mousuni, and Sagar will join Bedford and Lohachara beneath the waves, taking not just land but a way of life.

Sreoshi Banerjee and Raktimava Bose are associated with Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) respectively. Views are personal.

The Prime Minister is pushing for GST reforms before Diwali, urging states to adopt the shared draft. Concerns persist regarding unpredictable tax rates and overlapping investigations, leading to numerous demand notices. The article suggests rationalizing rates, expanding the tax base, and adopting a nuanced approach to compliance, including preventing non-compliance and supporting taxpayers.

Two days after announcing the plan to reform GST, the PM on Sunday said a draft of the next-generation changes has been shared with states and urged them to come on board, so the proposal can be rolled out before Diwali.

Even as GST remains a work in progress, some concerns persist-primary among them is the lack of certainty or predictability. Disputes over applicable tax rates, exemptions, input tax credit (ITC), or the taxability of certain supplies often surface without warning.

Investigations are often launched simultaneously by multiple authorities, bringing with them the usual rigmarole of summons, notices, seizures, frozen bank accounts and blocked ITC. To make matters worse, the system mechanically churns out thousands of demand notices, often triggered by what businesses consider ‘minor’ discrepancies or gaps in return filings.

In December 2023, GST authorities issued demand notices of around ₹1.45 lakh crore to around 1,500 businesses, citing inconsistencies in annual returns and ITC claims for FY18. There is cynicism over whether such a backlog can be resolved at the primary level fairly. In many cases, prolonged litigation is inevitable, heightening uncertainty for both revenue and trade, and overburdening the dispute-resolution system.

If GST is to live up to its promise as a ‘good and simple’ tax, its approach to dispute resolution needs a rethink. A multi-pronged strategy is essential-both to curb the creation of disputes and to resolve them fairly and promptly. A good starting point would be to rationalise the rate structure: compress the number of rates, eliminate rate inversions, and, where possible, apply broadband rates for similar products such as bread, buns, dinner rolls and parathas.

The timing is opportune, with revenue collections rising. Pairing rate compression with an expansion of the tax base-by bringing in at least some petroleum products, such as natural gas-could ease fears of revenue loss from lower rates or alternatively allow for a reduced standard rate.

GST administration must adopt a more nuanced approach to compliance. While aggressive enforcement is essential for tackling egregious offences such as fake invoicing, fraudulent input tax credit and outright tax evasion, other tools should be used to address less severe violations.

Compliance management entails bringing about a change in behaviour, which cannot be achieved solely through ‘entrapment’. There must also be an equally credible strategy to prevent non-compliance and support taxpayers, especially MSMEs, who do not intend to violate the law but are prone to make errors.

A convention of issuing periodic advisories to the trade, highlighting commonly occurring data errors, discrepancies, or other forms of non-compliance discovered during return scrutiny, audits or enforcement should be established. One major source of non-compliance is the incorrect availment of ITC. It may help to specify what ‘reasonable steps’ a taxpayer receiving goods or services should take to safeguard against allegations of evasion in this regard. Such provisions existed under the erstwhile central excise and service tax laws.

Contentious issues that arise during compliance verification should be clarified promptly to prevent further disputes. If a practice followed by the trade is found to be at odds with the intended interpretation of the law, such clarifications should, unless the practice involved suppression of information or mis-declaration, correct the practice without recovering tax for past periods beyond the normal limitation period.

The taxpayer also needs to take responsibility and collaborate-for instance, by ensuring that their return data is accurate, consistent and foolproof in a digitalised environment, lest the hands-free risk-management system flag gaps and discrepancies that could trigger disputes. Greater attention to data quality and consistency by the trade could make the ‘flurry’ of demand notices a thing of the past. They should also utilise the legal provisions for voluntary compliance as needed to prevent protracted disputes and litigation.

The creation of a national e-platform to host live data on issues or cases where either the central or state administration has initiated an investigation would help prevent taxpayers from being subjected to multiple authorities. The recent announcement that GST audits in certain challenging sectors will be conducted jointly by both authorities would also serve the same purpose.

The most challenging task is to instil and enforce a sense of fairness and timeliness among officers handling disputes. It is not as if norms of conduct to prevent high-handedness are absent. Perhaps the language of such instructions is followed in form, but owing to a lack of ownership and conviction, as well as a tendency to play it safe, the outcomes often fail to inspire confidence in the system.

There is no censure for such behaviour, just as there is no reward for resolving disputes constructively and reasonably. Continuous training and re-skilling of officers in dispute resolution, coupled with an appropriate incentive structure to promote reasonableness, would be an important way to reorient this critical business process.

The writer is former chairman, Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC). Views are personal.

Latest findings reveal commendable progress made by India, but gaps across gender, age, and income persist.

In the dynamic landscape of a rapidly digitising India, recent data presents a compelling narrative of progress, shifting from the cautionary tale of a few years ago to an optimistic view of widespread adoption. The country’s strategic investments in digital infrastructure and public initiatives, which once revealed a sobering reality of exclusion, now show remarkable success in bridging the digital gap.

Data from the NSSO’s Comprehensive Modular Survey, Telecom (CMST), 2025 highlights a monumental leap in digital banking capabilities, with the national average of people who are capable of performing online transactions soaring from 37.76 per cent in 2022-23 (CAMS 2022-23) to a substantial 69.33 per cent by 2025.

This leap suggests that the digital revolution, once seen as a risky leap into the unknown for many, is now being embraced across regions, genders, and generations. It also signifies that the well-intentioned digital revolution is increasingly becoming a tool of inclusion, improvements in digital literacy, user-friendly interfaces, smartphone affordability, and wider internet reach. But while digital banking usage has increased significantly, large gaps remain across gender, age, and income, highlighting that access alone does not ensure ability or inclusion.

While urban areas continue to lead the charge, the most dramatic progress is evident in the rural parts of the country, where the digital promise is finally being realised. In 2022-23, digital inclusion was a distant dream for nearly three-quarters of the rural population, with only 30% capable of performing online transactions. Fast-forward to 2025, and that figure has more than doubled to 64.11%. Urban India, already on a more advanced footing, also saw a significant jump from 50.57% to 77.62%. While a 13.5 percentage point disparity remains between urban and rural areas, the overall adoption rate has dramatically improved for both segments, suggesting that connectivity and access are no longer the exclusive domain of cities. The data indicates a national-level transformation rather than a simple success story limited to the urban centres.

The CMST 2025 data also reveals a hopeful, if still incomplete, story of gender parity in the digital world. The once-stark “gendered fault-line” has begun to heal, with a substantial increase recorded in digital literacy among women. In 2022-23, only 25.16% of women in the country were able to perform online transactions. By 2025, that number had more than doubled to 58.15%. Meanwhile, the digital proficiency of men also climbed, from 47.10% to 78.34%. Although the absolute gap has slightly widened in terms of percentage points, the sheer scale of female inclusion is a powerful indicator that targeted interventions and increased access are making a tangible difference. The challenge now lies in ensuring this momentum continues until the gap is fully eliminated, reflecting a more equitable society where technology empowers all, regardless of gender.

The stereotype of digital exclusion among the elderly population is also being challenged by the latest findings. While youth remain the most digitally fluent demographic, the most striking growth has occurred at the margins. The 15-25 and 26-35 age groups have shown impressive capabilities in digital transactions, at 71.99% and 73.84% respectively, reflecting the natural integration of technology into the lives of working-age individuals. However, the true testament to the revolution’s reach is the elderly population.

The “more than 60 years” age group, which was largely sidelined with a mere 18.4% proficiency rate in 2022-23, has made a monumental leap to 52.67%. But it also, still, means that nearly half of the country’s elderly device users remain digitally excluded – this statistic presents a serious concern in a country where the welfare delivery system is becoming increasingly cashless. Without inclusive design, support systems, and security mechanisms that are tailored to meet the seniors’ needs, their exclusion will persist.

Switching lanes: From access to capability

While the numbers paint a picture of undeniable progress, the journey to universal digital inclusion is far from over. Nearly 30% of the population, a staggering number in absolute terms, remains digitally excluded. This persistent divide is not just a matter of access to devices or connectivity, but a complex interplay of systemic barriers that include linguistic diversity, digital illiteracy, and socioeconomic constraints. These impeding factors necessitate a shift in approach. The focus must now shift from simply providing access to building trust, creating intuitive interfaces in local languages, and developing dedicated support systems for those who still struggle.

The true success of India’s digital revolution will not be measured in terms of the total volume of transactions or the number of new users, but by its ability to leave no one behind. The CMST 2025 data shows that the nation has made incredible strides, transforming a “two-speed” digital economy into one with accelerating adoption across all demographics. However, the final push requires targeted, nuanced interventions such as specialised training for senior citizens, dedicated digital literacy drives for women, and inclusive policies that ensure the benefits of the digital economy reach the last person in the last village.

The ultimate measure of this digital revolution will be its power to truly empower every Indian, making technology a great equaliser rather than a new source of disparity.

Palash is a fellow at National Council of Applied Economic Research – NCAER, New Delhi; Wankhar is a retired Government of India officer