Basel Committee at 50: From crisis to confidence

Opinion: Udaibir Das and Wayne Byres. 
The crucial role of implementing Basel standardsThe Basel Committee implementation programme has been integral to international financial architecture. Having celebrated its 50th anniversary on 24-25 April, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has journeyed from a humble forum for G7 bank supervisors to a titan among global financial standard-setting bodies.

Its standards and principles – especially the Basel framework, and the core principles for effective banking supervision – remain critical at a time when a wide range of risks, vulnerabilities and transformation impacts the global banking systemNow with a membership of 45 members from 28 jurisdictions, the BCBS oversees over 90% of global banking assets.

The BCBS’s co-operative arrangement with its members has broadly proven effective. Its standards and guidelines are globally recognised and implemented by member (and many more non-member) countries. Importantly, the implementation process is carried out in a proportional manner, tailored to align with the unique legal, institutional and structural realities of each country. This approach ensures that the BCBS’s standards not only enhance global financial stability but also respect and accommodate the diverse contexts within which its members operate.

Answering the call for robust governance

The BCBS fortified its standards after the 2008 financial crisis. Since then, it has established a mechanism to ensure their effective implementation. At a time when the validity of risk-based capital ratios was seriously questioned, a mechanism was needed to reinforce the complete, timely and consistent implementation of the Committee’s post-crisis reforms.

In response to calls for trust and confidence in banking oversight, the BCBS created the Regulatory Consistency Assessment Programme in 2012. This programme – founded on the principle of prompt reform and rectification of regulatory shortfalls – requires member jurisdictions to undergo periodic peer assessments on three levels. These are the timeliness of reforms, consistency of implementation and outcomes from applying standards to individual banks. A key component was to evaluate the divergence in intended regulatory outcomes from applying Basel regulatory standards to individual banks.

Establishing the RCAP  

Setting up an objective and fair global assessment programme like the RCAP was however no small feat. It marked a significant expansion of the Committee’s activities. The BCBS had never previously subjected its member jurisdictions to peer review. Instead, it left implementation to each jurisdiction’s discretion and assessments to banking and financial sector supervisory reviews by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

The BCBS had to navigate a labyrinth of technical and design challenges, such as diverse regulatory environments and the timely adoption of Basel standards, all against the backdrop of an evolving financial landscape. Over time, the RCAP’s focus expanded from risk-based capital to include Basel III standards on liquidity, leverage and systemically important banks.

Resistance and pushback

The Basel Committee assessments were also occasionally met with resistance due to several challenges. First, national interests. As the impact of the 2008 financial crisis faded, some jurisdictions resisted certain aspects of the Basel III standards due to national interests or the specific characteristics of their domestic financial systems.

Some also distanced themselves as implementing Basel III standards could be perceived as increasing the regulatory burden on banks, leading to resistance from the banking industry.

Another challenge was the perceived rigidity of assessments. Some jurisdictions questioned whether the evaluation was an overly mechanical exercise that should apply more nuanced judgments. From then, various ambiguities were identified during the RCAP, leaving some of the Committee’s standards open to interpretation.

Despite these challenges, the Basel Committee – supported by the Bank for International Settlements – established the RCAP across its member jurisdictions. The leadership of Stefan Ingves, the then-BCBS chair, and Jaime Caruana, the then-BIS general manager, played a key role in this process.

Commitment and transparency

Members of the BCBS must commit to implementing BCBS decisions and under the RCAP, they are required to demonstrate to their peers, markets, and other stakeholders that they have done so. As a way of promoting transparency, this is achieved through the publication of various assessments, regulatory rectifications made and follow-up.

Today, the RCAP is a pivotal governance tool. It fosters confidence in the prudential policies adopted across member jurisdictions. The RCAP purposefully promotes reliable capital and liquidity ratios, higher-quality capital and effective oversight. It bolsters the credibility of the BCBS’s commitments by transparently reporting on the national implementation of the Basel standards, including where the departures exist.

Broadening the scope

The RCAP has broadened its focus from risk-based capital to include Basel III standards on liquidity, leverage and systemically important banks. It has also scrutinised differences in the implementation of standards between individual banks – identifying areas where consistent domestic standards may yield materially divergent measures of financial soundness.

Focusing on material gaps and shortcomings has proven to be an effective strategy for promoting standards’ complete, timely and consistent implementation. This approach has been so successful that several other financial sector standard-setters have adopted the RCAP model.

After 50 years, the Basel Committee’s standards are crucial for maintaining global financial stability. However, well-designed global standards will not achieve their objectives if they are not implemented with equal rigour.

With the post-crisis reforms now primarily implemented and assessed, one might consider the need for the RCAP diminished. This would be a colossal mistake. Instead, the RCAP needs to evolve in response to the evolution of banking and regulation and should continue to serve as the platform through which the Committee reinforces the strong foundations of the regulatory framework.

Beyond this, the RCAP not only facilitates open financial borders, a level playing field and sensible risk-taking incentives, it can also provide early alerts for policy gaps, allowing it to lead rather than react. The programme could also be used to monitor regulatory rollbacks and help foster regulatory coordination where the Basel standards efficiency requires regulatory co-operation. However, as it stands, the RCAP continues to shed light on areas needing attention and evaluates the reliability of banks’ reported prudential ratios.

Throughout its history, the RCAP continues to serve as a technical appraisal and a communication exercise to inform and explain BCBS standards, their meaning and their impact on the safety and surety of Basel standards and their implementation. A revamped and purposeful RCAP can continue to play a crucial role in ensuring comprehensive and consistent implementation of the agreed-upon Basel standards – fostering confidence in the prudential policies adopted across various jurisdictions.

Udaibir Das is a Visiting Professor at the National Council of Applied Economic Research, a Senior Non-Resident Adviser at the Bank of England, a Senior Adviser of the International Forum for Sovereign Wealth Funds, and a Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation America and Wayne Byres is former Secretary General of the Basel Committee and former Chair of the Australian Prudential Authority.

India Human Development Survey: April 2024

The IHDS Forum is a monthly update of socio-economic developments in India by the IHDS research community, based on the India Human Development Survey, jointly conducted by NCAER and the University of Maryland. While two earlier rounds of the survey were completed in 2004-05 and 2011-12, respectively, the third round has also been launched and surveys have already been conducted in a number of States.

 

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Rural Non-Farm Sector Employment in the North-Eastern Region of India: Determinants and Implications for Wellbeing

The paper analyses the causal relationship between rural non-farm employment (RNFE) and the wellbeing of the people in India’s North-Eastern Region (NER). When India experienced a decline in poverty, specifically during the post-liberalisation period, the reduction of poverty was lower in NER, with a wide variation at the State level in the region than in the rest of the country. However, the structural shift in occupations and livelihoods in NER has been sharper than in other parts of the country. In this context, this paper aims to contribute to an understanding of the issue of occupational diversification in NER. Based on data from three rounds of the National Sample Survey (NSS), Employment & Unemployment Survey (EUS), and two rounds of the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), that is, the PLFS of 2017-18 and 2019-20. The 2SLS regression analysis highlights the higher inclination of young persons with technical education, people belonging to large families, and females in rural NER towards seeking livelihoods in the non-farm sector.

Unemployment figures hide widening job gap in South Asia

While global unemployment dips, South Asia grapples with declining labour force participation and widening job gap that put a generation at risk.

The world has encountered a series of extraordinary events in the last five years that transformed everyday life and economic activity. The COVID-19 pandemic was such an event that brought global affairs to a standstill. The depth and breadth of its impact were so profound that they confounded the expectations of policymakers and altered the collective approach to daily living. In the US, for example, the economic definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative growth was called into question in early 2022. Despite clear economic contractions, the presence of a robust job market and historically low unemployment rates made economists hesitant to declare a recession which is a reflection of the pandemic’s impact.

The International Labour Organisation recently released its World Employment and Social Outlook 2023 which provides an employment forecast for 2024. Echoing the US experience, the report notes that global markets have lost their post-COVID economic momentum, yet the job market remains resilient. According to the ILO, unemployment and job gap levels have reverted to pre-pandemic figures. However, the recovery has been uneven across different geographical regions.

The ILO report casts light on the shifting dynamics of the global labour market as it emerges from the shadows of the pandemic. It offers a prognosis for 2024, mirroring the dichotomy observed in the US, where post-pandemic economic buoyancy has waned, yet the labour market displays unexpected resilience. The disparities highlighted in the report reflect a world where employment situations simultaneously converged and diverged across different regions, setting the stage for a complex narrative of recovery and challenge.

Labour market trends in South Asia

In 2023, the labour force participation rate (LFPR) in South Asia returned to its pre-pandemic downward trajectory. The LFPR has been declining over the past two decades, from 55.7% in 2000 to 51.3% in 2019. It is projected to decrease further to 53.6% in 2024 and 53.5% in 2025, following a temporary increase to 54.2% in 2023 due to the pandemic’s impact.

While countries like Bhutan, India, and Bangladesh are expected to see an increase in LFPR, Sri Lanka and Iran anticipate stagnation. Notably, except for Iran and Sri Lanka, the rate of female labour market participation is rising across the region, led by India. However, the report highlights that a staggering 87% of workers are employed in informal jobs, highlighting a significant lack of decent employment. The region also faces challenges from the gig economy and other new forms of employment.

The economic situation in South Asia, as revealed by the LFPR trends, is one of contrasts and contradictions. While some nations within the region anticipate growth in labour force participation, others brace for stagnation, presenting a picture of economic resilience and vulnerability. This regional disparity not only highlights the diverse economic health across South Asia but also highlights the critical need for tailored economic policies that can address the unique challenges faced by different countries.

South Asia is home to the world’s largest youth population, but the data reveals a troubling trend: a high proportion of young people are not engaged in employment, education, or training (NEET). This poses a long-term risk to their careers. In 2021, Pakistan had the highest NEET rate at 34.6%, followed by India at 28.0%. Furthermore, the proportion of females in NEET is alarmingly high in both Pakistan (56.4%) and India (43.5%).

The profound social implications of these labour trends cannot be overstated. In South Asia, where a substantial segment of the youth remains disconnected from employment, education, or training, the society may face turbulence. This threatens not just the economic stability of the region, but also the social cohesion and future prospects of its young population. Addressing this issue is imperative not only for the economic health of the region but also for securing a socially inclusive future.

Moving beyond unemployment

While the global trend of decreasing unemployment rates continued in 2023, challenges persist in both low-income and high-income countries, where unemployment rates slightly increased or remained stable, respectively. The ILO report goes beyond simple unemployment figures to include the ‘job gap’ indicator. This new metric counts those who wish to work but are currently jobless, expanding the focus beyond those actively seeking or available for immediate employment. Globally, the projected job gap for 2023 is 11.1%, with women facing a larger gap (13.7%) compared with men (9.3%). In South Asia, however, the expected job gap is slightly lower than the global average at 9.3%, yet the gender disparity persists.

As the world grapples with these challenges, the opportunities for reform and innovation in labour markets worldwide become evident. The resilience shown by global labour markets opens avenues for innovative employment policies and strategies that could redefine work in the post-pandemic era. This period of transition presents a unique opportunity for nations to harness the lessons learned from these unprecedented times to foster a more inclusive and resilient economic future.

Furthermore, about 241 million people (6.9% of the global population) were employed but still lived in extreme poverty (earning less than US $2.15/day), and 423 million workers (12.2%) faced moderate poverty (earning less than US $3.65/day) in 2023. Notably, recent data from NITI Aayog reveals that only 11.3% of the Indian population lives in multidimensional poverty. However, India paradoxically records the highest percentage of working poor in the region, at approximately 9.0%. Bangladesh (5.8%) and Pakistan (3.5%) also have significant portions of their working populations experiencing extreme poverty.

The global labour market has shown resilience post-COVID, with falling unemployment and a narrowing job gap. However, South Asia continues to face challenges, including declining LFPR, youth disengagement, and persistent gender gaps. The region also struggles with high levels of informal employment and challenges from the emerging gig economy. Despite some progress, the prevalence of extreme and moderate poverty remains a pressing concern, especially in India. This situation warrants targeted interventions to address the complex issues.

Jyoti Thakur is Associate Fellow at National Council of Applied Economic Research.

The NCAER-NSE Business Expectations Survey for India Fourth Quarter 2023–24

The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), one of India’s premier economic policy research think tanks, carried out the 128th Round of its Business Expectations Survey (BES) in March 2024, with support from the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE). NCAER has been carrying out the BES every quarter since 1992, covering 500 firms across four regions. The overall business sentiment as measured by the Business Confidence Index rose from 127.6 in the third quarter of 2023–24 to 138.2 in the fourth quarter of 2023–24.

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