Researchers Publication

This paper looks at the correlation between the cyclical components of gross domestic product and the exchange rate and classifies countries' currencies as procyclical if they appreciate in good times, countercyclical if they appreciate in bad times, and acyclical otherwise. With this classification, the paper shows that: (i) the countries that are commodity exporters and...   Read More

This paper analyzes whether liquidity constraints matter for optimal monetary policy choices in an open economy. Asset market participation is limited as some agents lack financial capacity and behave in a hand-to-mouth fashion. I evaluate consumer welfare using a micro-founded welfare criterion derived through perturbation techniques, and find that the presence of liquidity constraints requires...   Read More

The Kerala Perspective Plan 2030 (KPP) prepared by NCAER for the Kerala State Board of Planning is a strategic path forward for Kerala to achieve economic and living standards equivalent to Nordic countries. KPP 2030 targets leapfrogging the high middle income threshold in the next 15 years and the high income threshold in the next...   Read More

This India Policy Forum 2014–15 comprises papers and highlights of the discussions at the 11th India Policy Forum (IPF) held in New Delhi on July 15–16, 2014. The IPF explores India’s rapidly evolving and sometimes tumultuous economic transition and its underlying reform process using policy-relevant, rigorous, empirical research. The IPF is sponsored and organised by...   Read More

ग्रीस के आर्थिक संकट को लेकर चिंता की लकीरें पूरी दुनिया में दिखाई पड़ी हैं। भारत पर इसका बहुत ज्यादा असर शायद न पड़े, लेकिन ग्रीस के इस संकट में बहुत सारे सबक जरूर हैं, जिनमें भारत ही नहीं, दुनिया के तमाम देशों के पास सीखने लायक बहुत कुछ है। लेकिन इन बातों पर आने...   Read More

Press Release Highlights of NCAER’s most recent Business Expectation Survey for Quarter 4 2014-15 The 92nd round of Business Expectations Survey (BES) carried out in March 2015 reveals that business sentiment has fallen sharply.  The BCI decreased by 6.9 per cent over the previous quarter. All components of BCI declined between January and April 2015....   Read More

NEW DELHI: Business sentiment fell sharply in the March quarter due to concerns over investment climate amid "patchy" and "uneven growth" said a survey today. "The 92nd round of Business Expectations Survey (BES) carried out in March 2015 reveals that business sentiment has fallen sharply. The BCI decreased by 6.9 per cent over the previous quarter" said a...   Read More

This article published in BusinessLine is written by Dr Kanhaiya Singh a Senior Fellow at NCAER. The Centre and the Reserve Bank of India signed an agreement on February 20 2015 which intends to put in place the inflation targeting framework (ITF) as the preferred monetary policy approach to be operated by the RBI. The...   Read More

The following article in The Hindu is written by Sonalde Desai a Senior Fellow at NCAER & Professor of Sociology at University of Maryland and Debasis Barik an Associate Fellow at NCAER. The article features important evidence gathered from the India Human Development Survey (IHDS) conducted periodically by NCAER in collaboration with the University of...   Read More

Over the last decade, the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework has become a workhorse for macroeconomic analysis in both academic and policy circles. Following this emerging trend, we aim to expand our research capacity in macroeconomics at NCAER by introducing a baseline DSGE model for the Indian economy. This working paper comes out as...   Read More

This paper examines the estimation procedure of domestic product for communication sector in India at constant prices. It is observed that the methods used for estimating domestic product at constant prices suffer from serious flaws with respect to communication sector. When corrected by using a simplified method, it is found that the growth in real terms...   Read More

This economic outlook by NCAER, co published with India International Centre, New Delhi, analyses expected growth, inflation, balance of payments, fiscal balances, savings and investment trends, and covers the state of important sectors of the economy, including the financial and corporate sectors for that fiscal year. Long-term trends in the macro-economic performance of the Indian...   Read More