Researchers Publication

NCAER-NSE Business Expectations Survey for 2022–23: Q2 The Business Confidence Index is higher than it was a year ago but has softened sequentially New Delhi (Tuesday, October 26, 2022): The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), one of India’s premier economic policy research think tanks, carried out the 122nd Round of its Business Expectations...   Read More

Global Hunger Index is riddled with inadequate and poorly described data and a lack of conceptual clarity. The problem with indices of this type is that it directs governmental attention to cross-national comparisons, sometimes resulting in the rejection of underlying issues and sidetracking the public discourse The world seems to have gone index-happy. Happiness Index,...   Read More

The oft-cited 14% of GDP is an overestimate, arrived at by a consulting £rm using a model built for developed countries. India’s logistics cost is estimated to be around 14 per cent of GDP — a figure that has all of a sudden become cast in stone. High logistics cost, without doubt, impinges on competitiveness....   Read More

Earlier this year, the United Nations published data to show that India would surpass China as the world’s most populous country by 2023. According to the 2018-19 Economic Survey, India’s demographic dividend will peak around 2041, when the share of the working age population is expected to hit 59%. In this context, does India need...   Read More

Interview of Dr Mridul Saggar, IEPF Chair Professor at NCAER and former MPC member, with Latha Venkatesh, discussing September CPI inflation data, was aired on CNBC TV18 on Thursday, 13 October 2022. Watch the programme here. For the full discussion, watch the video Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Citi India's Samiran Chakraborty and former MPC member, Mridul Saggar...   Read More

Open economy challenges may haunt policies ahead as spillovers intensify A common economic sophism is that fiscal policy can prop up growth even when monetary policy is assigned to bringing inflation under control. In the short run, lifting demand amid supply constraints will only fuel inflation and the twin deficits, with a wider fiscal gap...   Read More

Opinion: Mridul Saggar: Amid high inflation and exchange rate pressures, rate hikes and tight liquidity are the best bet. The RBI has been broadly getting its act right amid difficult circumstances. In my assessment, it has traversed about three-fourths of the amplitude of the current rate hiking cycle, but the economy is stronger than before....   Read More

Dominance of banking by PSBs has also been a hurdle in the way of improving the regulatory regime, which, in turn, hampers the modernisation and, therefore, healthy growth of the sector. This is because RBI has limited regulatory jurisdiction over PSBs. Indeed, this fact has at times provided RBI an easy cover for its own...   Read More

IEPF Chair Professor Dr Mridul Saggar speaks to Latha Venkatesh, CNBC TV18 on “RBI’s Monetary Policy Announcement in the CNBC Indianomics program, 30 September 2022. Watch the Video

In the Review, we summarise the economic and policy developments in India; monitor global developments of relevance to India; and showcase the pulse of the economy through an analysis of high-frequency indicators and the heat map. Click here for previous issues

Immersion of idols laced with harmful chemicals does an irreparable damage to a river, time to stop sinning against salvator. It is that time of the year again, when the devout prepare fancy and exotic idols of gods and goddesses, venerate them for a few days and then consign them to the waters of our...   Read More

While collecting official statistics will always be a purview of state institutions, they must be governed by independent governing bodies that can ensure scientific integrity and broad oversight. We seem fascinated with statistical soundbites, vacillating between the bizarre and the expedient. In October 2021, major newspapers featured stories that claimed that over 100 million Indians...   Read More