Researchers Publication

The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) has pegged India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2019-20 at 4.9 per cent the lowest among the recent forecasts by rating agencies multilateral institutions research firms and government institutions. “India is experiencing a decline in growth which is sharper than the global slowdown. The sharp decline...   Read More

Focussing on short-term revenue maximisation can hurt long-term welfare. Auctions must be redesigned to meet a wider set of goals. Since the last decade the auction of key public goods has emerged as yet another important tool in India for resource mobilisation. As a result the auction mechanisms are increasingly being designed to maximise revenue....   Read More

The survey by think tank NCAER showed that the Business Confidence Index fell 15.3% from the preceding quarter The numbers suggest a deep and all-pervasive worsening of business sentiments NCAER said in a statement New Delhi: Business confidence of India Inc declined to its lowest in six years in August-October according to the latest survey...   Read More

Business confidence across the industry declined in the September quarter over the previous three months due to an all-pervasive worsening of business sentiment said a survey by economic think tank NCAER on Monday. NCAER's Business Confidence Index (BCI) an indicator of business sentiment across Indian industry stood at 103.1 in the second quarter of 2019-20...   Read More

Budget subsidies have been defined as the unrecovered cost of economic and social services. The incidence of these implicit and explicit budget subsidies provided by the central and state governments has declined from about 12.9 % of GDP in 1987-88 to 10.3 % at present. The bulk of these subsidies is provided by the states...   Read More

The economy of Bihar is dominated by agriculture, which contributes over a quarter of the state’s income and accounts for employment of about 70 per cent of the rural workforce. Hence, robust growth of the agriculture sector holds the key to the economic and social development of the state. Keeping this in view, the Government...   Read More

Bihar has a geographical area of 9.4 million hectares and fertile agricultural land spread across the Indo-Gangetic plains. The net cultivated area in the state accounted for about 57 per cent of the total reported geographical area during 2012-14. Over 70 per cent of rural workers depend on agriculture for livelihood. Despite its importance for...   Read More

Given fund shortages, government can at best address one/two most important constraints for agricultural growth. Applying Hausmann growth diagonostic framework, we have attempted to identify binding constraints to agricultural growth in Bihar. We find that the poor functioning of agricultural markets, reflected in the instability in the prices of agricultural produces and the low level...   Read More

Fully 70 percent of its Bihar's rural work force is employed in agriculture, which contributes over a quarter of the state GDP. Hence, rapid agricultural development remains important for Bihar. Recognizing this, the State government started implementing what it called Agricultural Road Maps in 2008, and is currently on its third Road Map (2012-13 to...   Read More

The five-year period 2012-13 to 2016-17 witnessed a decline in Indian merchandise exports at an average rate of 4.5 percent per annum. The Ministry of Commerce and Industry initiated a discussion in August 2018 on designing a strategy for doubling India’s exports by 2025. This growth from US$ 504 billion exports of goods and services...   Read More

NCAER’s Mid-Year Review of the Indian Economy (MYR) presents the most comprehensive, independent assessment of the Indian economy. The 2019-20 Review has been published in a longstanding partnership with the India International Centre (IIC), New Delhi. NCAER is grateful to Rudrani Bhattacharya at NIPFP for collaborating with us on the crucial forecasting and nowcasting exercises:

We need a timebound mechanism to transition to a clearer land titling system The Indian macroeconomic slowdown is perceived as being structural in nature. One of the key suggestions being made is that India needs to carry out factor market reforms including those of land markets. In this article we make a specific policy recommendation...   Read More